Thursday 5 February 2015 20:55, UK
The Six Nations and six different sets of aspirations, or so there should be.
In a World Cup year, the waters are muddied, and the tea leaves harder to read. However, the Wales manager has been making it clear that the Six Nations is a build-up to the bigger event, while the England captain has been emphasising the importance of actually winning something and as for the French, who knows?
The reality is that when we are bidding our boisterous farewells to 2015, the leading rugby nations of Europe will be judged on their achievements next autumn. Whether the smaller rugby countries like Scotland and Italy should is another matter. When a quarter-final is by far the likeliest achievement, the idea of focusing ahead of whatever the next game strikes me as illogical.
On the other hand, teams like Wales have for too long been the big fish in the small pool. Credit to Warren Gatland for saying it as it is: Wales have to prove themselves more than a European force. They have to beat England when it matters most, and that is definitely not Friday night.
It matters of course, it matters plenty and the result and actions may have a bearing on the World Cup pool game, but would Gatland or Lancaster swap the Six Nations win for a guaranteed win against the other at Twickenham? The truth is neither should accept even a Grand Slam. If that is not the case, ambitions are disappointingly limited.
But let’s not wish away the world. Friday is going to be a great affair, there is no more atmospheric game in the world than when England cross the Severn to Cardiff. I’ll be heading over in the morning, before the England support brings the Severn Bridge to a standstill. Cardiff will be in a chaotic state of excitement all day. Get there, enjoy the noise; it is what the Six Nations does best.
What do the six sides need to do well if they are to have a successful competition? Starting with the champions, Ireland, it might be surprising to say they can do with brushing up their back play. It is a surprise because their coach, Joe Schmidt, is the most innovative attacking coach in Europe. But in Ireland’s excellent autumn, offloading and ambition was put away for ball retention and tactical kicking.
This tournament gives Schmidt and his men a chance to address the balance. The ability of Connacht’s Robbie Henshaw to fill the boots of Brian O’Driscoll might determine how determined Schmidt is to play a game with all 15 players potentially equally involved.
The return to some sort of form for Paul O’Connell (against an admittedly callow Sale side) was good news after his dip. If O’Connell repeats his autumn form, Ireland – with Sean O’Brien close to fitness and Cian Healy on the horizon - will be there or thereabouts.
England have a horrendous start to the tournament. Whatever the words emanating from Wales, they will not be treating the England game as a training run. Whereas Wales are fit and raring, England are hobbling to Cardiff with three of their front five and Stuart Lancaster’s first choice centres all injured.
A win for England in Cardiff would be an outstanding effort, a loss not the end of the world as long as the team learn a few lessons along the way. The lessons to be learned this Six Nations are tactical ones.
A win would be an outstanding effort, a loss not the end of the world as long as the team learn a few lessons along the way. The lessons to be learned this Six Nations are tactical ones. Naive for much of the autumn, England must play more territory and find ways to utilise their undoubted power.
In Cardiff, that forward power has been lessened and it will be intriguing to see whether the selectors think they might need a bit of magic to replace the lack of ballast and give the in-form Jonathon Joseph a try. We’ll come back to the issue of English centres throughout this tournament, I suspect.
Wales are openly admitting they will be playing their cards close to their chests; so Gatland maintains. Maybe it is a magnificent ruse to take the pressure off his team before Friday’s highly charged affair.
Whenever Wales take the wraps off, this tournament or the next one, we need to see a backline that is more than the battering ram based around Roberts. We need to see quicker ball and a slicker service from nine to 10. Rhys Webb is the man expected to provide it. He has been the smoothest No 9 in Europe so far this season with a rapid pass and an eye for the break.
In tandem with Ospreys team-mate Dan Biggar, Wales have half-backs to unleash what should be a magnificent backline. Samson Lee’s emergence at tighthead has been the other key for Wales especially with Adam Jones now retired from the international game. This column has not touched on Jones yet; a bow and hats off, a gentleman and a great player. Congratulations on the career, Adam.
From Scotland, a continuation of their autumn would be good news for the game. A strong Scotland makes the international game and the Six Nations so much more interesting. The patience of continual phase play that got them nowhere under the last two coaching regimes has been replaced by a side with added penetration. Vern Cotter made an impressive start but he will he hoping Finn Russell can rediscover the form of the internationals and early part of the season.
Elsewhere, Jonny Gray can continue his rise, following eerily in the footsteps of his brother at this stage of his career. I like Alex Dunbar, and dare I say, I like their chances of causing an upset in Paris on Saturday.
So much talent and so little tangible rewards; France came close to winning last season’s tournament but they were poor in terms of performance. They have been dire under Philippe Saint-Andre. Never to be underestimated in a World Cup year but until this team finds their shape and will to win, they look set to disappoint. Their key man is undoubtedly Camille Lopez. With him at fly-half, they have a shot at addressing the shape issue.
Italy will doubtlessly throw everything at Ireland minus Jonny Sexton this weekend, but as the competition progresses, the old problems will rear their heads. Italy lack not only quality outside the set piece but strength in depth. The pack will be competitive but the back play is still poor. They have earned the right to be favourites for bottom spot but even so, they can make the favourites to win the tournament (well, SB's favourites) sweat in Rome on Saturday.
This may be a World Cup year but the Six Nations is a party tournament every year; enjoy it. See you in Cardiff, you know that little coffee shop in the arcade...
