Friday 12 June 2015 07:18, UK
QPR’s Charlie Austin is the most likely player in Europe to move clubs this summer, while Raheem Sterling is third in a list published by the Football Observatory.
The team of statisticians are from a research group in the International Centre for Sports Studies which was founded in 1995 as a joint-venture between FIFA and the University of Neuchâtel in Switzerland. The Football Observatory was established in 2005 and has carried out studies for both FIFA and UEFA.
Their most recent report looks at players from the top five leagues in Europe that could be set for the exit door.
It also predicts the fee clubs can expect to receive, and they have an 80% success rate according to the data compiled by the statisticians over the last two transfer windows. The most valuable player in the list this time round is Sterling who is priced up at an eye-watering £60m.
Lyon’s Alexandre Lacazette could very well be moving in to Liverpool this summer. It would be viewed as a marquee signing and a £28.6m fee is attached.
Nathaniel Clyne is another player that could be heading to Anfield but Liverpool would have to considerably increase their £10m offer to at least £15.2m to get their man.
Alexis Sanchez is valued at a healthy £55m and despite just finishing his first season with Arsenal he is ranked a surprisingly high 41 in the list.
Yannick Ferreira Carrasco, someone Sanchez will be familiar with after he helped Monaco dump Arsenal out of the Champions League, is 47th and could move for £16m.
Antoine Griezmann and Miralem Pjanic both feature outside the top 70, but their parent clubs could very well command £47m for the former and £25.4m for the latter if they do move on.
Griezmann has been linked with a move to Chelsea and Pjanic has attracted admiring glances from a number of Premier League suitors.
Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Manchester United have all been allied with an interest in Ilkay Gundogan and he could be set to move from Borussia Dortmund, according to this study and his ranking of eighth.
United have also been linked with a player closer to home in Harry Kane and he sits in 47th position with a predicted transfer fee of £42.9m.
Philippe Coutinho, Saido Berahino and Europa League sensation Carlos Bacca all take their respective positions in the top 100, albeit outside the top 30.
Players with one remaining year on their contracts are heavily represented as teams look to receive a fee to avoid the situation of a Bosman ruling transfer.
The study shows the greatest transfer probability is often for players from recently relegated clubs but this does not mean high profile players will be exempt from big money moves.
The Football Observatory’s top 50 players most likely to move:
1. Charlie Austin (QPR) £8.1m
2. Albin Ekdal (Cagliari) £2.7m
3. Raheem Sterling (Liverpool) £60m
4. Jose Mauri (Parma) £2.8m
5. Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon) £28.6m
6. Raphael Guerreiro (Lorient) £6.4m
7. Alberto Paloschi (Chievo) £3.7m
8. Ilkay Gundogan (Dortmund) £13.5m
9. Daniel Wass (Evian TG) £1.6m
10. Elias Kachunga (Paderborn) £1.5m
11. Tomer Hemed (Almería) £1m
12. Fabián Orellana (Celta Vigo) £3.8m
13. Romain Metanire (Metz) £0.8m
14. Bouna Sarr (Metz) £1.1m
15. Nabil Fekir (Lyon) £20.8m
16. Jordan Ayew (Lorient) £10.5m
17. Gregoire Defrel (Cesena) £4.8m
18. Oliver Sorg (Freiburg) £1.6m
19. Shinji Okazaki (Mainz) £2.8m
20. Raul Bobadilla (Augsburg) £2.8m
21. Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim) £16m
22. Christian Gentner (Stuttgart) £1.5m
23. Adrien Thomasson (Evian TG) £1.1m
24. Wissam Ben Yedder (Toulouse) £6m
25. Pablo Chavarría (Lens) £0.7m
26. Gonzalo Higuain (Napoli) £27.4m
27. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Dortmund) £11.6m
28. Tom Huddlestone (Hull City) £3.7m
29. Franco Di Santo (Werder Bremen) £5.7m
30. Jonathan Schmid (Freiburg) £2.8m
31. Kevin Mirallas (Everton) £5.3m
32. Branimir Hrgota (M’gladbach) £3.1m
33. Pablo Sarabia (Getafe) £3m
34. Vladimír Darida (Freiburg) £4.4m
35. Stefano Okaka (Sampdoria) £4.6m
36. Saido Berahino (WBA) £16.6m
37. Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal) £55m
38. Elseid Hysaj (Empoli) £4.1m
39. Mauro Icardi (Inter Milan) £20.9m
40. Johannes Geis (Mainz) £5.4m
41. Martín Caceres (Juventus) £1.7m
42. Wylan Cyprien (Lens) £1.7m
43. Uwe Hünemeier (Paderborn) £0.7m
44. Ahmed Elmohamady (Hull City) £2.3m
45. Yannick Ferreira Carrasco (Monaco) £16m
46. Roman Neustadter (Schalke) £3.3m
47. Harry Kane (Tottenham) £42.9m
48. Ryad Boudebouz (Bastia) £2.1m
49. Graziano Pelle (Southampton) £11.6m
50. Andreas Weimann (Aston Villa) £2.9m
Notable other players in the top 100 players most likely to move this summer:
51. Philippe Coutinho (Liverpool) £40.6m
69. Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton) £15.2m
74. Joao Moutinho (Monaco) £7.9m
80. Miralem Pjanic (Roma) £25.4m
88. Carlos Bacca (Sevilla) £16.5m
91. Antoine Griezmann (Atletico Madrid) £47.5m
