led to 4th, soon ridden, weakened approaching 3 out
held up in rear, outpaced after 3 out, never dangerous
tracked leaders, led 5th, ridden clear 2 out, eased towards finish
tracked leader, led 4th to 5th, hit 3 out, soon ridden stayed on flat, no chance with winner
in touch, headway 4th, ridden to chase winner approaching 2 out, one pace last
Short Change stands out on literal form and gets our vote here ahead of French Mannequin. The selection won on the Flat during the summer and comes here fit from that sphere. On his hurdling debut at Hereford he beat no-lesser horses than Le Duc and Mistanoora. Much as he did not build on that, this is not a strong race and catching him fresh over hurdles might pay dividends. French Mannequin has proven fairly consistent at, admittedly, a modest level this season and, with a number of his opponents lacking a recent run, might just be the one to chase home the selection. Three Lions ended lasts season with a win from a mark of 89 in a Hereford handicap and, fairly lightly raced in recent years, should be competitive here, although the downside is that he lacks a recent run and has to concede weight to the field. Keep an eye on market moves for Afadan but, overall, we'll opt for Short Change.
