Friday 31 October 2014 14:54, UK
The BNP Paris Masters – the last tournament before the ATP World Tour Finals – begins on Monday with four places for London still up for grabs.
But Andy Murray’s sensational victory in the Valencia Open final on Sunday means he is all-but guaranteed to take one of them.
Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic are already confirmed for the O2, whilst Rafa Nadal is a confirmed absentee - and it would now take an unlikely sequence of results to stop Murray from joining them.
Defeat for either David Ferrer or Milos Raonic before the Paris final would confirm Murray’s place.
The Paris showpiece is a Masters event, which means 1000 points are available to the winner, double the amount Murray picked up for winning in Valencia.
The Scot is likely to begin his tournament on Wednesday, taking on either the big-hitting Julien Benneteau or Yen-Hsun Lu. He is seeded eighth, which means a potential quarter-final clash with top seed and defending champion Djokovic.
The main focus of the week however will be the battle to secure a place at the O2 in London.
Five players – Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych, Ferrer, Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov – are battling for three places.
There are almost 700 points separating Nishikori, in sixth place, and Dimitrov in 11th, and the Bulgarian and Raonic – who both lost in the quarter-finals in Basle last week – need big tournaments.
There is no such thing as an easy draw in a Masters event.
But Raonic has a terrible draw. The in-form Pablo Andujar, who upset Berdych in the first round in Valencia, is his likely second-round opponent. Richard Gasquet or the rapidly-improving Roberto Bautista Agut could be next and then it’s Federer.
The Swiss arrives in peak form, victorious on home turf in Basle and arguably playing as well as he ever has done.
Dimitrov will probably have to beat Murray and Djokovic just to get to the semi-finals, and like Raonic he will realistically have to get to the final to have a chance of London.
Nishikori starts the week fresh – he did not play last week – but has a tricky draw too. He may have to beat Valencia runner-up Tommy Robredo and home favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga just to set up a quarter-final clash with Ferrer – and that could be a winner-takes all match as far as London is concerned.
If Berdych can get over his shocking performance in Valencia – he was awful – quickly, he perhaps has the best chance of booking his place. Wawrinka – who is already qualified, is his projected quarter-final opponent and the Swiss is in no sort of form.
Ferrer’s path to the quarters has one major banana skin in the way – Belgium’s David Goffin.
It could therefore be, a rollercoaster week for the five contenders.
Race for London standings:
1 N Djokovic 9,010 – Q
2 R Federer 8,520 – Q
3 R Nadal 6,835 - injured
4 S Wawrinka 4,805 – Q
5 A Murray 4,295
6 K Nishikori 4,265
7 M Cilic 4,150 – Q*
8 T Berdych 4,105
9 D Ferrer 3,865
10 M Raonic 3,840
11 G Dimitrov 3,555
Q= qualified
Q* Cilic qualifies as US Open champion
Points available in Paris:
Winner: 1000
Runner-up: 600
Semi-finalists: 360
Quarter-finalists: 180
R16: 90
R32: 45
Watch the tournament live throughout the week on Sky Sports 3HD
