mid-division, outpaced 3 out, never dangerous
with leaders led 3rd to next, chased leaders, ridden 3 out, soon lost place and weakened
in touch, headway under pressure 3 out, weakened next
tracked leaders, ridden and outpaced after 2 out, one pace and no impression last
mid-division, mistake 3 out, soon outpaced, effort next, weakened before last
always towards rear, tailed off when pulled up before last
mid-division, hit 5th, headway 3 out, chased leaders next, soon ridden and one pace
mid-division, lost place 3 out, behind when pulled up before last
mistake 1st, mid-division, ridden to chase leaders approaching 2 out, kept on same pace, no impression
in touch, headway 3 out, chased leaders after next, kept on flat, took 2nd post, no impression
chased leaders to after 3 out, soon weakened, behind when pulled up before last
mid-division, outpaced 2 out, never on terms
chased leaders, outpaced on outside 2 out, kept on under pressure, no impression
in touch on outside, lost place 4 out, soon behind, pulled up before 2 out
mid-division, outpaced after 3 out, never on terms
mid-division, driven and outpaced 2 out, soon weakened
hit 1st, led to 3rd, chased leaders to 3 out, soon weakened
tracked leaders, led 4th, made rest, ridden 5 lengths clear when mistake last, kept on flat
tracked leaders, went 2nd 4 out, effort when mistake 2 out, soon ridden, kept on same pace, lost 2nd post
mid-division on inside, ridden 8th, weakened after 3 out
behind, ridden 3 out, headway on outside approaching next, stayed on from last, nearest finish
in rear, some headway 2 out, never nearer
always behind, tailed off when pulled up before 3 out
towards rear, outpaced after 3 out, never dangerous
ALFIE SHERRIN may not represent much in the way of value given the size of the field, but what he does represent is the most likely winner and is given the vote accordingly; Fredo, Ainama and Prince Erik may follow him home. Our selection won a handicap at Newbury in nice fashion last time having been given a break following a slightly disappointing run in the early part of winter. A big stamp of a horse, he's surely going to be better when faced with fences but on that win last time he's got a big prize in him over the smaller obstacles and this may be it. He's up 12lbs for winning at Newbury but was really authoritative in victory and the form of that race couldn't have worked out much better with four winners already emerging from it. This is the acid test, but we expect him to find the right answers and prove too strong before making a fine chaser next year. Fredo is one of the horses who finished in behind Alfie Sherrin at Newbury but Ian Williams' charge has since improved to score at Haydock. Stamina looks very much his strength and the likely fast pace will help, but perhaps this ground is a shade quick and he does have a lot to find with our pick if judged solely on the one time they met. AP prefers Ainama of the JP McManus runners and that looks justified if the horse is back to his best. He's been tried with limited success over fences this year but was placed over the smaller obstacles in a Grade Two at Aintree in the spring, so the move to revert back can pay off with a big run on ground that suits. Mr Thriller is a tempting enough each way bet as he beat Alfie Sherrin off similar terms back in October but it has to be said things haven't quite gone to plan since and he's better when the mud is flying, so those looking for one at a price could do well to turn to Prince Erik. Dermot Weld's record here isn't the best but don't let that put you off, he's a master-handler and knows what it takes to win big prizes whatever the venue. His gelding is another who has returned to hurdling following some bad mistakes over fences and he's done so well, scoring tidily last time our over this trip. The concern is Irish runners tend to have a bit more weight than they perhaps deserve and he's also shown better form when the ground is cutting up, so the percentage call looks to be to oppose him in terms of finding a selection. Smoking Aces is a fellow Irish raider who steps up in trip and tries the cheek-pieces, two factors which make him hard to assess. He does shape as though he'll stay, but AP presumably could've ridden this horse and the fact he doesn't is enough for us to give him the swerve. Trenchant won well last time in what is traditionally a good race but this lazy sort has enough weight, as does Ballyfitz who is 7lbs higher than when he last raced over timber. Kayf Aramis improved beyond measure last year, landing this race in the process, but he's 20lbs higher and can be taken on despite the fact he ran well last time. The mare Silk Affair won here last year but takes on more experienced rivals and may be found wanting alongside Cross Kennon who has done nothing but improve this year and deserves to be here, but this is where the winning should stop. Your pen may run out of ink whilst writing down the shortlist here, but there's little doubt Alfie Sherrin is the one they all have to beat.
Mr Thriller (FR) 5-1 (11-4) In touch, driven approaching 3 out, beaten soon after, 8th of 13, 45l behind Tidal Bay (11-0) at Cheltenham 3m hdl G2 (1) sft in Jan.
Ballyfitz 8-1 (10-11) In touch, jumped slowly 11th, chased leaders 14th, in 2nd when blundered 5 out, soon 3rd and no impression from next, 4th of 14, 22l behind Silver By Nature (10-11) at Haydock 3m 4f hcp chs G3 (1) hvy in Feb.
Trenchant 8-1 (11-7) In touch, headway after 3 out, led between last 2, ridden and kept on well flat, won at Fontwell 2m 4f hdl G2 (1) hvy in Feb beating Souffleur (11-11) by 2l, 7 ran.
Kayf Aramis 9-2 (11-8) Tracked leader, led after 4 out, headed approaching 2 out, rallied flat to take 2nd towards finish, kept on, 2nd of 8, 1 3/4l behind Souffleur (11-4) at Haydock 3m 1f hdl G2 (1) sft in Feb.
Alfie Sherrin 5-2fav (11-4) In touch, pecked 2nd, left 2nd 8th, led before 2 out, clear last, driven out, won at Newbury 3m hcp hdl 0-140 (2) gs in Feb beating Triggerman (10-11) by 2 3/4l, 18 ran.
Don't Push It (IRE) 13-8fav (11-2) Held up in 5th, headway approaching 11th, every chance when mistake last, not recover, 3rd of 5, 9l behind Our Vic (10-12) at Warwick 3m chs (2) sft in Dec.
Ainama (IRE) 8-1 (11-12) Tracked leaders, not fluent 4th, lost place when not fluent 8th, closed approaching 2 out, no impression when mistake last, 5th of 18, 15l behind Lie Forrit (11-8) at Newbury 3m hcp hdl 0-140 (2) gs in Nov.
Time Electric (IRE) 8-1 (10-7) Held up, headway on outisde after 3 out, every chance 2 out, ridden, hung left and one pace flat, 5th of 12, 3l behind Lie Forrit (9-12) at Cheltenham 3m 1f listed hcp hdl (1) sft in Nov.
Montana Slim (IRE) 14-1 (11-3) Tracked leaders in 5th, slight mistake 4 out, soon weakened, trailing when pulled up before last, in a race won by War Of Attrition (11-8) at Navan 2m 5f hdl G2 sft in Feb, 8 ran.
Prince Erik 10-1 (10-4) Tracked leaders, 8th after 3 out, 4th entering straight, led last, ridden and stayed on well run-in, comfortably, won at Leopardstown 3m hcp hdl hvy in Jan beating Conclave (10-3) by 6l, 19 ran.
Erzen (IRE) 13-2 (11-9) Towards rear, hit 2nd, pushed along approaching 8th, reminders approaching 4 out, soon weakened, 11th of 12, well behind Fredo (10-11) at Haydock 3m 1f hcp hdl (2) sft in Feb.
South O'The Border 15-2 (11-0) Tracked leading trio, pushed along in 3rd from 6th, stayed on approaching last, went 2nd flat, kept on as winner eased towards finish, no chance, 2nd of 5, 1 1/4l behind Copper Bleu (11-0) at Exeter 2m 1f beg chase (4) sft in Feb.
Smoking Aces (IRE) 5-1 (11-6) Soon disputed lead, slight peck 5th and reminder, led 4 out where mistake, soon pushed along, definitely headed and 1L down from before last, switched and rallied run-in, stayed on well to lead on line, won at Punchestown 2m 4f hdl sft in Feb beating Boulavogue (11-6) by shd, 10 ran.
Fredo (IRE) 7-2fav (10-11) Held up mid-division, headway 7th, led on bit after 2 out, ridden out, stayed on well, won at Haydock 3m 1f hcp hdl (2) sft in Feb beating Minella Boys (11-4) by 9l, 12 ran.
Boulavogue (IRE) 8-1 (11-6) Prominent, improved to dispute lead travelling well before straight, definite leader and 1L up before last, strongly pressed and stayed on well run-in, headed on line, 2nd of 10, shd behind Smoking Aces (11-6) at Punchestown 2m 4f hdl sft in Feb.
Palypso De Creek (FR) 33-1 (10-4) Held up, headway after 8th, hampered 12th, every chance 4 out, not fluent 3 out, stayed on same pace under pressure flat, no impression, 2nd of 12, 2 3/4l behind Our Vic (11-3) at Haydock 3m hcp chs G2 (1) hvy in Jan.
College Daisy (IRE) 10-1 (11-5) Chased leader in 2nd, led 7th, ridden entering straight, strongly pressed from last, headed run-in and no extra, 2nd of 8, 1/2l behind Badgerlaw (11-4) at Punchestown 3m hcp hdl 0-140 hvy in Jan.
Buena Vista (IRE) 25-1 (11-9) Always rear division, ridden and struggling 3 out, tailed off, 8th of 11, 36l behind Alfie Spinner (10-8) at Newbury 2m 3f hcp hdl 0-140 (2) sft in Jan.
Chamirey (FR) 7-2fav (11-10) In touch, chased leaders approaching 7th on inner, kept on on from last, 3rd of 12, 10l behind Fredo (10-11) at Haydock 3m 1f hcp hdl (2) sft in Feb.
Rocco's Hall (IRE) 14-1 (11-10) Mid-division, headway to 6th halfway, weakened before 4 out, 14th of 16, well behind Dorset Square (10-2) at Fairyhouse 2m 4f hcp hdl 0-140 sft in Feb.
Cross Kennon (IRE) 5-1fav (11-7) Held up in rear, headway from 7th, led 2 out, stayed on well to draw clear flat, won at Chepstow 3m hcp hdl 0-125 (3) hvy in Dec beating King Of Castile (10-7) by 6l, 15 ran.
Maucaillou (GER) 8-1 (10-13) Rear of mid-division, some progress from 3 out, ridden in 9th entering straight, kept on same pace, 7th of 19, 12l behind Prince Erik (10-4) at Leopardstown 3m hcp hdl hvy in Jan.
Silk Affair (IRE) 8-1 (10-0) Held up towards rear, headway appraching 2 out, never reached leaders, 5th of 13, 12l behind Beshabar (9-11) at Sandown 2m 6f hcp hdl Grade 3 (1) sft in Feb.
Special Occasion 11-1 (11-10) Held up in rear, headway 3 out, chased leaders before next, no extra between last 2, 5th of 11, 12l behind Alfie Spinner (10-8) at Newbury 2m 3f hcp hdl 0-140 (2) sft in Jan.
