Monday 29 June 2015 20:10, UK
Our panel of writers and Sky Bet racing traders unpick the latest racing action and look forward to this Saturday's Coral-Eclipse.
1) Jack Hobbs never appeared unduly troubled on his way to winning the Irish Derby on Saturday. How did you rate his performance and did anything else take your eye from the race with the rest of the season in mind?
David John: Jack Hobbs has been on an extremely sharp upward curve bearing in mind he was winning a Sandown handicap at the end of April and it is hard to gauge exactly when the improvement will come to a halt. The quickish ground was the only issue for connections at the Curragh but once he made some space for himself entering the home straight he proved himself a different class to the chasing pack. He is generally a single-figure price for the Arc de Triomphe and that looks the obvious long-term target with the prospect of ideal underfoot conditions in Paris in the autumn. As for those left trailing in his wake, Oaks heroine Qualify never got competitive and probably deserves another chance.
Ben Coley: With Storm The Stars again behind Jack Hobbs, it’s easy enough to suggest that the favourite simply did was he was supposed to do, beating the key form danger in a race which really lacked depth. It’s clear now that Aidan O’Brien doesn’t have an outstanding 12-furlong three-year-old and with Qualify failing to repeat her hard-to-explain Oaks performance this was a renewal which took little winning. However, quite clearly the winner is improving all the time. This was just his fifth start and connections are right to think there’s a heck of a lot more to come as he fills out.
Will Hayler: I detected genuine concern from Johnny G in his final pre-race interview, the trainer even suggesting that the colt might have had enough races in a short space of time, so I thought the performance earned plenty of brownie points. He certainly looks much more professional now than was the case in the Dante and the Epsom experience has evidently done him no harm, rather than set him back - as can be the case with some horses. He's a big player in the Arc, where I expect he has little chance of meeting Golden Horn again, as he will surely be campaigned with the Champion Stakes in mind.
Johnnie Simpson: Sky Bet: As a huge fan of Jack Hobbs It was very pleasing to see him win so easily on Saturday. Granted he beat roughly the same field in the English Derby but it was the manner he did it that was so encouraging. He is currently an 8/1 chance with Sky Bet and fully deserves his place near the top of the market.
2) The Northumberland Plate won by Quest For More will be the last to be staged on turf, with the contest set to be staged on a new Tapeta track from next year. Is this a worrying development for the sport or an inevitable move towards a more sustainable 365-days-a-year racing product? As a punter, will it put you off having a bet next year?
BC: It takes more than a different surface to put me off having a bet so don’t worry about that! To be honest I don’t have a strong opinion on the benefits or otherwise of what’s happening at Newcastle but I was interested to hear what Richard Fahey had to say on the Morning Line. In short, the North needs a good All-weather track and if the prize money is good, the trainers will support it. All in all, while it’s of course sad to see an iconic race forced to change its identity, in the long-term there are reasons to be cheerful and the Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton seems to have gone down well.
DJ: It certainly would not put me off having as bet in the race if I fancied one but it is a rather worrying development for a turf track that is considered by many as one of the best in the country. I understand the need for an all-weather venue in the north but was under the impression that Catterick were happy to take that on and – no offence intended – a higher grade venue like Newcastle would be left untouched. The executive intend to keep the jumps track so that is a blessing but a diet of low-grade contests in the majority makes no appeal to me in the medium to long term. That said, there were plenty up in arms when Kempton made the switch, who now regularly send horses to run there, and it would be naïve to think that trainers won’t support the new venture at High Gosforth in their droves.
Richard Horner, Sky Bet: No, it’s not a worrying development for the sport, just a racecourse and it’s owners looking at the best way to keep going and make a profit at the same time. Some trainers have had their say and moaned about it but you can bet that they will be sending runners up to Gosforth Park if the prize money is right and the North is badly in need of an All-weather track so why not Newcastle? With the exception of the Plate day it is hardly top class racing anyway. It won’t put me off having a bet next year either - if it is a big 20-runner handicap it won’t matter whether it is on Tapeta or turf, we will all be trying to back the winner, no matter what the surface.
WH: What a bunch of inveterate gamblers you lot are! It's not an exact science but races such as the Jubilee Handicap and Queen's Prize (as they were then) were massive events on the turf at Kempton that have been reduced to near-obscurity since Kempton's switch of surfaces. That's not to denigrate Kempton in any way, but a simple observation by which it's possible to argue that the Northumberland Plate could easily be an ordinary 0-80 within 20 or so years. These things happen. The question is whether the loss of that sense of heritage is more or less important than other challenges faced by the sport, such as the need for more racing opportunities in the North - something Newcastle's decision to dig up the turf is supposed to be helping.
3) Give us an eyecatcher from the wekeend's action, from which we can all profit in the future.
BC: I’m going back to Friday’s card at Doncaster for an eyecatcher in the shape of Tawwaaq. Roger Varian’s filly finished mid-division in a Nottingham maiden that’s taken a few knocks having been well-backed on debut, but this second to Alsaaden suggests she’ll win her race next time. Richard Fahey’s Drifting Spirit also made good progress from a bad position in this contest so while there were probably no superstars in it, I do expect a couple of winners to emerge in the coming weeks. Most Beautiful was most impressive in winning at the Curragh on Sunday too. She could be very good.
JS: I’m convinced Discussiontofollow will win a big sprint handicap this season. Mike Murphy's sprinter was heavily backed for Sundays feature five-furlong sprint at the Curragh only to finish a staying-on second. Having only just missed out on a place in the line-up in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot he should go up a few pounds in the weights for Sunday's run and hopefully make the cut for the Stewards' Cup at Glorious Goodwood.
WH: Major Jack keeps going up in the weights despite finishing just beaten which is never an ideal state of affairs, but he absolutely flew home behind Bushcraft at Newcastle on Saturday and would have gone close to reversing previous Windsor form with that still-unexposed rival had he enjoyed a clearer run through the pack. He's probably not up to Stewards' Cup level, but there are plenty of other good sprint handicaps coming up and one might well come his way at a decent price.
DJ: Just Glamorous was the subject of an punt in the opening juvenile maiden at Lingfield on Saturday but never seemed entirely happy despite positive ride from a decent draw. She may have found this coming a bit too quickly after her run at Royal Ascot the previous weekend but she still looks a filly with a touch of quality and will surely break her duck sooner rather than later.
4) Ryan Moore is still available at 4/7 to win the newly-shortened jockeys’ championship. Is this buying money or can somebody still emerge to throw down a challenge?
DJ: Moore looks in pole position for sure granted a reasonable dose of luck in terms of either injury or suspension. His main rivals are already waving the white flag with Richard Hughes understandably not chasing his tail for winners in his final season while Silvestre De Sousa has played down his chances of going all out during evening racing. The Goldolphin team of William Buick and James Doyle are splitting the mounts and dividing up the firepower so with Moore having the pick of the rides from here and from across the Irish Sea during this new book-ended campaign, he is going to take some shifting.
WH: He's a good thing, in my view. The only possible obstacle would be injury.
BC: Agreed. If avoiding injuries, Moore will win the jockeys’ title. Let's get on.
Joe Cundall, Sky Bet: Let's look a bit more deeply at this. I think it’s safe to say that Britain’s most talented jockey at this moment in time is Ryan Moore. If his sole aim of the season was to win the jockeys' title then I have no doubt that 4/7 would represent incredible value. However, we all know that this is not the case and with Moore’s involvement with the Aiden O’Brien stable, his abundance of talent will be needed further afield as the season draws to a close. At the start of Monday, sits 10 winners clear of the next two in the market in Richard Hughes and Silvestre De Sousa (both 9/2). With Hughes stating that he may start his training career earlier than anticipated, in my mind there is only one value alternative to Moore and that would have to be SDS. He is a hard-working jockey that undoubtedly has his eyes on the flat jockeys' prize. As the season progresses he seems to be growing in confidence with an especially lucrative and successful partnership with the Mark Johnston stable really throwing him back into the limelight after his fall from grace with Godolphin. Other notable candidates could perhaps be William Buick (12 winners behind, 33/1) and James Doyle (17 winners behind, 50/1), but much like the favourite, they are going to be needed by Godolphin across the globe later in the year. To be backing a 9/2 shot that will definitely be putting it all in to win would, to me, seem the most sensible angle to a tricky puzzle.
5) New Bay’s absence leaves Golden Horn a 4/11 chance with Sky Bet to win the Coral-Eclipse. Can he possibly be beaten now?
DJ: He certainly can be beaten if he has an off-day but from what we have seen so far this summer, it is no shock to see him quoted at that sort price. The form of his Epsom victory has been boosted in no uncertain terms at the Curragh by Jack Hobbs and Storm The Stars, and he could be even more effective dropping back in distance considering how connections were worried about the stamina ebbing away in the Derby over a mile and a half. I expect Golden Horn will win but he should be given a decent workout by The Grey Gatsby and stablemate Western Hymn – Group Ones are not handed out for free so the favourite will need to be on his game.
BC: It’s unlikely. Favourites have a decent record in the race and in my estimation he’s the best horse to have run in it since Sea The Stars fended off Rip Van Winkle. Despite his scintillating Derby performance I feel like 10 furlongs on a stiff-ish track will provide Golden Horn’s optimum conditions and getting 9lb from The Grey Gatsby, he should win. Cougar Mountain is the unknown quantity having been tried as a sprinter and now sent beyond a mile for the first time, but he’s still a good way inferior to the favourite even on that improved Ascot run and again has to give the weight away. Sit back and enjoy Golden Horn laughing at them.
WH: Personally, I don't think we learned much from the Irish Derby - Jack Hobbs just did what the Epsom form said he probably would, right? Golden Horn thoroughly deserves to be favourite for all of the reasons Dave states above, but I'm a little surprised to see him so short against The Grey Gatsby, who if able to run up to his best form of last year, would surely pose a big challenge.
JC: I think all racing fans will have woken up on Monday extremely disappointed at the news that New Bay will miss the Eclipse. What would have been a mouthwatering clash has been abandoned after a tame piece of work by the French raider over the weekend. The Derby form couldn’t have received a better boost over the weekend with both Jack Hobbs and Storm The Stars running fantastic races at the Curragh and it seems likely that Golden Horn will pick up Sandown’s big prize en-route to even loftier targets later this season. That said, 1/3 does seem a bit short. The Grey Gatsby ran a mighty race in defeat at Royal Ascot, with many of those watching (including myself) adamant that he would have won had he not got boxed in at a crucial stage behind Free Eagle. The worry for him is his tactical speed in what may prove a very tactical affair. With only five runners and no confirmed trailblazer, the race is not sure to suit The Grey Gatsby’s running style. If I were to look for an alternative, then it would be no great surprise to me to see Ryan Moore take the initiative on the Aidan O’Brien-trained Cougar Mountain and make the running at a track that can sometimes suit one with an easy lead. He’s far from certain to stay the trip but he was staying on nicely enough over 1m in the Queen Anne to have some hope. He certainly would be one of the pacier runners in the field and if Moore can stack them up before kicking for home at the right time, he may just be able to steal it.
