Friday 30 January 2015 21:54, UK
Alex Hammond looks ahead to the weekend's racing and highlights her best bets at all the major meetings in the UK and Ireland.
For fans of jump racing the next five and a half weeks are all about the countdown to Cheltenham.
I have a few observations on that score after the recent action. The first, would Hurricane Fly be a 7/1 shot (with Sky Bet) if he was three years younger? Stablemate Faugheen comes into the race unbeaten, but he has to prove himself at this level and is the even-money favourite.
The Fly has shown that he’s as tough and talented as ever with his recent victories in Ireland and whilst 11 is almost over the hill in racing terms, in any other equestrian sport the general consensus would be that he is just about to reach his peak (where he would be expected to stay for at least three to four years).
Granted, racing is a different discipline and in this world he has reached the veteran stage, but he hasn’t shown too many signs of slowing down just yet and Ruby may have a tougher decision that we envisage the week before Cheltenham.
I was one of the doubters at the beginning of the season, siding firmly with The New One as my fancy for the top two-mile hurdle races, but with 22 Grade 1 wins to his name, could Hurricane Fly be shoving my all-time favourite Istabraq aside in my affections?
Sticking with the Willie Mullins theme, Un De Sceaux impressed again in the Irish Arkle and is understandably very short to win the Cheltenham equivalent (4/5 favourite). Some professionals have suggested he could win the Champion Chase if he were to line up in it, and given the problems with the protagonists, it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility.
However, the Arkle is there for the taking and he is still only seven and has only had three starts over fences. He can be quite highly strung and has to prove that the Festival atmosphere doesn’t faze him, but he’s going to take some stopping regardless.
I’m pleased to have named Saphir Du Rheu as one of my horses to follow this season, although I didn’t expect him to be a leading World Hurdle contender when I put him up.
He’s now 6/1 for the stayers' race after his win in the Cleeve Hurdle. There are obviously going to be comparisons with Big Buck’s after he reverted to hurdles having fallen in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton over Christmas. He’s in the same ownership and we are always looking for a story, but he has some way to go to fill those illustrious boots. Nonetheless, he’s smart and has the potential to improve on better ground at the festival.
The World Hurdle is another race that could be there for the taking with More of That off the track since losing his unbeaten record in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November. He has subsequently had a breathing operation to try and alleviate his wind problems and is being kept away from heavy ground by trainer Jonjo O’Neill.
Annie Power’s first option is the Mares’ Hurdle for which she is even money favourite, but she hasn’t been without her problems this term either. She could well run in this again (she was runner-up in 2014), but coming back from injury will make life more difficult in a race like this.
One other horse that I must mention before we look ahead to this weekend’s racing is Many Clouds. Oliver Sherwood has done a marvellous job with this horse to improve him and freshen him up after his Hennessy win to win the Gold Cup trial at Cheltenham last weekend.
He looks like a real contender after his fluent display and authoritative win. He’s now 9/1 third favourite with Sky Bet for the blue riband and whilst I still think Silviniaco Conti is the one to beat on the final day of the festival, this horse should be right up there and could take advantage should things not work out for the Paul Nicholls-trained horse.
Speaking of the festival and there should be some pointers this weekend. At Sandown two likely festival juvenile/novice hurdlers take each other on in the Betfred Keep It Fun Contenders Hurdle.
The Nigel Twiston-Davies trained juvenile Bristol De Mai takes on Harry Fry’s Jollyallan, but it’s by no means a match as Philip Hobbs’ Greatwood winner Garde La Victoire is also in with a shout.
Bristol De Mai gets the weight concession from his elders and I think that could swing it for him. He won on his British debut in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow in December which saw him attract attention in the ante-post market for the Triumph Hurdle, for which he is now 8/1 second favourite behind hotpot 7/4 favourite Peace And Co (who is in the same ownership).
Jollyallan is 20/1 for the Sky Bet Supreme and the same price for the Neptune after he made it three from three over hurdles at Kempton over Christmas.
He is the sort of horse that will progress with time and experience, but is in very good hands as Fry is operating at an incredible strike-rate – 41% in January.
Garde La Victoire has the know-how to take advantage of any inexperience in the top two and didn’t run badly trying to give weight way at Ascot last time out.
Flute Bowl looks to have work to do to trouble the other three. It could be a scrappy affair with just the four runners, but I’m just siding with Bristol De Mai.
Staying at Sandown and the Grade 1 Betfred TV Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase is also short on numbers with just five declared, but again it doesn’t lack quality.
I sided against Ptit Zig in the Dipper at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day which was a mistake. I thought Champagne West could beat him that day and he couldn’t, but it was by no means a disgrace to finish second to the Paul Nicholls-trained chaser who has got better and better with each run.
This could be the opportunity to get some compensation for the Philip Hobbs trained seven-year-old, who is currently 16/1 for the RSA Chase and the same price for the JLT Novices’ Chase.
It’s another Paul Nicholls trained horse that looks to be Champagne West’s main rival. Nicholls has declared Irish Saint for this 2m 4 1/2f contest. The horse benefitted from a step up in trip at Ascot last time out and there will be more to come. He has jumped well, including round this track over the tricky ‘railway fences’ and looks to be the main danger, although the other three can’t be discounted either.
Splash Of Ginge deserves his step up into this grade after a win in a Grade 3 Handicap at Cheltenham although he was trounced by Champagne West earlier in the season.
Willie Mullins has sent the mare Gitanes du Berlais over for this and she gets a handy 7lb mares' allowance. On the face of it she looks to have a bit to do, but she won in taking fashion against her own sex at Limerick on her chase debut a month ago and can improve again.
Alan King saddles Grumeti, another potential improver who is two from three over fences and takes a step up in class now. King has reached for the cheekpieces after he appeared to idle at Plumpton last time out. It’s Champagne West for me.
The most interesting betting heat is the Grade 3 Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle over 2m 6f.
Polamco will be popular for Harry Fry after back to back wins since going handicapping. He has a good attitude and is one to keep on the right side of but he’s short enough in a heat of this nature. Having said that, he will improve again and looks the one to beat.
Neil King is a trainer I’ve always been more than happy to follow and he’s sending out plenty of winners since moving from Newmarket to Wiltshire. He saddles Saffron Wells, who is pretty closely matched with the favourite on their run at Newbury in December when this horse finished third behind Harry Fry’s charge.
He is the model of consistency and has only been out of the first three on four occasions. He ran well to be third in the Lanzarote at Kempton last time and whilst he’s been creeping up the handicap, I don’t think his current mark is too harsh and he should run well again.
Emma Lavelle’s Junction Fourteen is another with a leading chance. He hasn’t won since an impressive victory at Kempton 13 months ago for which he was raised 16lb. He hasn’t been given any respite from the handicapper, but he ran well off this mark of 137 at Wincanton last time out and he would have threatened were it not for a bad mistake.
Imperial Leader returns from a layoff. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ seven-year-old hasn’t run since May but he has some decent placed form behind the likes of Irish Saint and Fingal Bay and he’s not too badly treated.
You can’t discount a John Ferguson trained horse ridden by AP McCoy; the pair team up with Mijhaar. He has top weight though, running off a mark of 140, which is 3lb higher than when he finished second at Ayr earlier this month. This is a tricky race, but I think Imperial Leader could be one to catch fresh and he just gets the nod.
Wetherby’s meeting will have to pass an 8am inspection, but if it does go ahead the totepool Towton Novices’ Chase looks a classy affair.
Kaki De La Pree is one of the leading hopes for Tom Symonds after showing improved form on his second start over fences in a handicap at Newbury behind Gevrey Chambertain. He was well behind fellow rival Return Spring at Exeter on his debut in this sphere, but is entitled to have needed that and I’d expect them to finish closer in this.
Return Spring was favourite when pulled up in the Classic Chase last time out, but that was a different proposition to this and he can be forgiven that run.
However, I like the chances of the Alan King-trained Ned Stark. He paid the price for trying to beat Ptit Zig in the Dipper at Cheltenham last time out and finished fourth with Top Totti in third for Henry Daly. He also made a mistake at a crucial stage so things could go more his way and those placings should be reversed.
At Ffos Las I like Foryourinformation in the Betway Welsh Champion Hurdle. He is trained locally by Rebecca Curtis, who has booked Paul Townend for the ride. The horse won his maiden over this course and distance on heavy ground so conditions hold no fears and he looks a likely improver. In fact, Townend comes over for five rides for the trainer and they look a partnership to follow at the track.
Musselburgh stage their Trials Day on Sunday with a cracking card.
The Sky Bet Supreme Scottish Trial Novices Hurdle could be informative with El Namoose returning to action after a winning hurdling debut at Huntingdon in November. Trainer John Ferguson has a consistently impressive strike rate and his record at this track is pretty good too, with two winners from seven runners this season and a 32% strike rate over the past five seasons.
This horse has only been beaten once, in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last year, and he’s 33/1 for this year's Festival opener. He is blessed with gears and that debut will have done him good as he made a couple of errors that he will hopefully have learned from.
AP McCoy rides El Namoose and the champ can follow up on Ifandbutwhynot in the John Smith’s Scottish Champion Chase, this time for David O’Meara.
The horse runs in a handicap for the first time over fences in this and doesn’t look badly treated on his hurdles form. The better ground at Musselburgh will suit and he has fair form in novice chases - he'll do for me.
Hargam puts his Triumph Hurdle credentials on the line in the John Smith's Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial, while Cinders And Ashes, whose finest moment came when he won the Supreme in 2012, is set for his first start since last year's festival in the John Smith's Scottish County Hurdle.
In Ireland on Sunday the Grade 2 Boylesports Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown looks like a decent little contest.
It looks hard to split Hidden Cyclone and Twinlight with the pair likely to be vying for favouritism. Twinlight has to carry a penalty thanks to his win over Hidden Cyclone in the Dial-A-Bet Chase over Christmas. There was 4 ¼ lengths between them that day and the 8lb weight pull will make life easier for Hidden Cyclone and I think he’ll reverse the placings.
Trainer Shark Hanlon has been having a decent season with strike rates of 20%-plus in November and December and Hidden Cyclone can take this en route to a possible tilt at the Betway Champion Chase for which he is 20/1 with Sky Bet.
Saturday
Bristol De Mai in the Contenders Hurdle @ 11/8 with Sky Bet
Champagne West in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase @ 5/2 with Sky Bet
Imperial Leader in the Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle @ 13/2 with Sky Bet
Ned Stark in the Towton Novices’ Chase @ 5/1 with Sky Bet
Foryourinformation in the Welsh Champion Hurdle @ 4/1 with Sky Bet
Sunday
Hidden Cyclone in the Tied Cottage Chase @ 11/8 with Sky Bet
El Namoose in the Supreme Scottish Trial Novices Hurdle @ 6/4 with Sky Bet
Ifandbutwhynot in the John Smith’s Scottish Champion Chase
