Tuesday 25 November 2014 18:06, UK
Our ante-post man The Insider highlights a couple of over-priced runners ahead of Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury.
Djakadam was clipped to 7/2 in places for Saturday's Hennessy following the five-day decs and quite frankly Willie Mullins' five-year-old makes zero appeal from an ante-post perspective ahead of his seasonal reappearance.
A promising horse with a big future, of that there's little doubt, but with only three chase starts under his belt, one of which was a fall in the biggest race of his career at the Cheltenham Festival when last seen, he lacks experience for a race of this nature.
Having never competed beyond two miles and five furlongs, when a four-length winner of a four-runner Grade Two novice event at Leopardstown, Djakadam also comes up way short in terms of proven stamina. And we know with more rain to come through Tuesday and Wednesday, this is going to be a serious slog.
Last year's race would seem like a sensible place to start, but from the past 10 winners only Carruthers had contested the previous season's renewal and all the trends point towards a second-season chaser who made a big impression as a novice - of which there is no shortage of candidates.
Many Clouds is a brilliant jumper and looked better than ever on his return at Carlisle but there's a nagging doubt about him at the trip as his best efforts so far have come over shorter.
On a direct line through the absent O'Faolains Boy, who beat him two and a half lengths when receiving 4lb in last term's Reynoldstown and edged out Smad Place by three quarters of a length off levels in the RSA, it's easy to see why Oliver Sherwood's runner is generally a point shorter than Alan King's in the market.
Splitting them in some books is Phillip Hobbs' Fingal Bay and he's the real anomaly.
The red-hot trainer can't wait for Saturday and sums up his hope's chances quite perfectly, saying: "...he is just a high-class horse. To win a race off top weight at the Cheltenham Festival [Pertemps Final] proved that."
You certainly couldn't argue, but if you revist his Exeter effort when last sighted chasing in public then you'd be hard pressed to take 8/1 ahead of what is essentially one of the greatest tests of jumping in the racing calendar aside from the National.
Rocky Creek jumped like a stag when second to Triolo D'Alene 12 months ago and the recent Down Royal runner-up merits plenty of respect given how much Paul Nicholls' runners have been improving for a run this season.
However, it's the Nicholls 'second string' BLACK THUNDER, twice the price of Rock Creek at a general 20/1, who appeals more.
He comes into the race with two runs under his belt already this term, took a big step forward between those efforts and it wouldn't be any surprise to see him improve significantly again at Newbury.
He was still in contention before falling in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham and had earlier in the campaign beaten Fox Appeal at Fontwell, Many Clouds at Haydock and Shotgun Paddy in a Grade Two at Lingfield.
All three of those victories came on soft ground and the form has been franked every which way you look.
It's last month's Ascot second, however, that marked him down as a proper contender for Saturday's feature as he was the only one who could make up ground from midfield to give the front-running What A Warrior a race.
The United House Gold Cup is always a strong race and it looks like this year's running will live up to that billing after the sixth home Grandads Horse won well over the same course and distance last weekend.
Midnight Appeal and Ardkilly Witness have also done the form no harm with solid subsequent runs and Black Thunder, who is 1lb better off with What A Warrior at the revised weights, rates a smart each-way wager, despite Nicholls suggesting Sandown the following weekend is a potential alternative target.
The 2013 United House Gold Cup was won in good style by HOUBLON DES OBEAUX and he's also worth backing despite the burden of top weight on Saturday.
He's not the biggest horse in training but is about as tenacious as they come and goes extremely well when fresh.
He was mixing in Grade One company in the spring and unsurprisingly found life tough but he's now only 5lb higher than when winning at Ascot last November and is returning to action at a time when his yard is clearly firing on all cylinders.
The seven-year-old has been placed in half of his 16 chase starts and looks too big a price at 33/1 to land the Hennessy.
