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Sunday 19 May 2024 17:37, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insight and analysis on the Premier League's final day as he thinks West Ham possess the firepower to score at Manchester City.
Arsenal fans, you're looking for hope aren't you? Well, I can give you some. West Ham look a fine bet to score in this match with the both teams to score option at 4/5 with Sky Bet hard to ignore.
West Ham are an excellent counter-attacking side with Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen exceptional in transition and City are vulnerable to that style of play. Clean sheets have been hard to come by this season anyway for Pep Guardiola's side, having conceded at least once in 33 of their 46 games across the Premier League and Champions League.
That figure probably should be higher too as only recently Spurs created 1.66 worth of expected goals despite City keeping a clean sheet and Nottingham Forest racking up a whopping 1.93 without scoring.
West Ham, who have scored in away trips to Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Aston Villa this season, have the finishers in Kudus (7/1 to score anytime) and Bowen (9/2 to score anytime) to make this a more dangerous fixture than it looks for City. Both players are worth backing.
I wouldn't go as far to say that Arsenal are a bet to win the Premier League title at 15/2 with Sky Bet but City might be required to score two or even three goals to win this match, so that could lead to heart rates increasing in north London at some stage.
Everton's inability to find the net on a consistent basis this season - only Sheffield United have scored fewer goals than them (39) - means Arsenal should deliver for punters that want to take the 1/6 with Sky Bet for a home win. That said, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a player who doesn't want the season to end - he's been unplayable in recent weeks - so Gabriel and William Saliba will need to be on their game. I like Saliba's foul lines here with Sky Bet.
Calvert-Lewin has won 16 fouls in his last six starts - it equates exactly to 2.95 fouls per 90 since March 30 and only three players are working at a higher foul won ratio.
Saliba and Gabriel's fouls committed numbers have spiked in Arsenal's run-in as the pressure has increased, making 33 fouls between them in their last 11 games. Saliba, who has made 13 of those fouls, is priced up favourably here with 4/5 with Sky Bet on offer to make at least one foul. The bigger lines of 4/1 for two or more and 14/1 for three or more are also worth respecting.
The Jurgen Klopp era is ending much like how it started: in that Liverpool are very easy to score against.
For the first time under his watch, Klopp's team have conceded two or more goals in four consecutive games. There will be a celebratory atmosphere at Anfield with an exhibition-like game full of Liverpool's heavy-metal attacking on show, which will also bring ample opportunities up the other end for Wolves to exploit. They can certainly play their part in a goal-heavy game that the markets are predicting will test the over 4.5 goals line which is a 11/8 shot - a crazy price really.
My eyes are drawn to Matheus Cunha's price to score or assist in the game at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
Cunha has six goals in his last six Premier League starts, scoring 12 goals this season, of which nine have come away from Molineux. He's also bagged seven assists, resulting in a per 90 goal involvement ratio of 0.72 which is the 11th best record of any player in the league this season of players to have played 2,000 minutes or more. His price, based on those numbers, to grab another goal involvement should be shorter than 7/4.
Nicolas Jackson sure does love a foul and knows how to mix it with defenders.
Playing as the lone front man can be a frustrating experience at times and Jackson has been carded 10 times, making 21 fouls in his last 19 starts.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth's central defensive duo are encouraged to stride out with the ball to start attacks and Jackson will be tasked with stopping that at source. The opposition centre-forward has made 35 fouls in the last 24 games across all competitions when facing Bournemouth, so Jackson looks in line to keep the referee busy.
In a game where Chelsea will be looking to see the job through to finish sixth, Jackson's prices of 5/2 with Sky Bet to make two or more fouls make appeal.
It's been a glorious season for making money off Manchester United shipping shots and corners. Let's hope for my bank balance Erik ten Hag is given one more year as I'm eyeing up a new car at some point before Christmas. United have conceded the most corners of any team in the Premier League this season (272), yes - more than Sheffield United.
And, only the Blades have faced more shots this season than Ten Hag's men, who hit the 650-mark in the win over Newcastle. Truly remarkable numbers and there is no reason to desert that betting strategy here while the prices are still in our favour.
Brighton's corner line has been set at seven or more corners won at 10/11 with Sky Bet which looks very fair to me considering United conceded eight in the meeting between the two at Old Trafford and have conceded at least seven corners in 13 of their last 17 matches.
Newcastle still have a lot to play for.
A victory would put them in a very good spot to play European football next season, something that is very important for Eddie Howe. That could either be by finishing sixth if beating Brentford and Chelsea losing - or by finishing seventh by bettering Manchester United's result at Brighton. If that happens then they'd need Man City to beat United in the FA Cup, so seventh place would result in a Europa Conference League spot. City are 1/9 with Sky Bet to win at Wembley, so seventh should be enough.
A pro-Toon bet has to be the play but they look short enough at 23/20 with Sky Bet for the away win, so I'm heading to the goalscorer market where Joelinton stands out at 5/1 with Sky Bet to score. His influence has been sorely missed by Howe's side and he looked very sharp off the bench at Manchester United, posting three shots in his 28 minutes of action. If he starts, he's a big price to score.
It sums up how tightly congested teams truly are outside the top three and bottom three in that Crystal Palace, in 12th place in the Premier League fully 22 points behind fourth-placed Villa, are odds-on at 5/6 with Sky Bet to win this match. Even though recent form and the potential for Villa hangovers following a gruelling schedule and party-time in recent days are playing a part in the price, I'm convinced there really isn't much between the likes of Villa and Tottenham and Palace and Bournemouth. It should make for some great betting opportunities next season.
I'm certainly with Palace here but would rather just back Michael Olise to score anytime at 11/10 with Sky Bet than take a skinny price on the home win. It's now eight goals in his last eight starts for the Palace superstar, who could have a Cole Palmer-like season next year if staying fit and firing in this Oliver Glasner team.
I'm always inclined to oppose cards when it comes to dead-rubbers on the final day.
In the last 10 seasons on the final day, the average booking points stands at just 29.15 per match with 12 per cent of the matches seeing no cards shown.
This could head down the path of being a very drifty, one-sided game. Sheffield United's games have taken a sharp downturn on average cards shown in recent weeks. There's only been seven yellows and one red shown in their last five Premier League fixtures, with no cards shown in their away day at Newcastle. Such is their lack of pace and trickery, they don't possess the required attributes to win cynical fouls off the opposition.
And Andy Madley is a lenient referee who doesn't use his cards to manage a game. Since the start of last season, he is averaging just 3.7 cards per 90 minutes, making him the fourth lowest card shark of referees to have taken charge of 40 or more Premier League games.
Sheffield United to be shown more cards than Tottenham is the way to attack the angle at Evens with Sky Bet.
In a season that has been a goal frenzy, I'm fully expecting Sunday to follow that trend of being a crazy, crazy day for goals. In the last 10 Premier League final days, the goal-per-game ratio has always sailed above the season average for goals per matchday on the final day. Over those 10 years, the average goal count per matchday increases 0.6 per match from the overall average total goal count per match.
Teams are more likely to play with a bit more freedom in a no-pressure environment. It's attack-minded football to the fore. And this game just screams mad scoreline.
Final-day games have the tendency to go into overdrive in terms of a scoreline. Remember Crystal Palace 5-3 Bournemouth in 2019? Or Tottenham 5-4 Leicester in 2018? How about Hull City 1-7 Tottenham in 2017? And there was relegated Southampton drawing 4-4 Liverpool last season.
So, I wouldn't put people off having a stab at the 12/1 with Sky Bet on over 6.5 goals and the 25/1 on over 7.5 goals.
Nottingham Forest can technically still be relegated. If they lose and Luton win with a 12-goal turnaround then the most sensational final-day swing is on. It's not going to happen, I know, but this should keep Forest's motivation levels high for this game. There still is a job to be done and, quite clearly, they are a much better football team than Burnley.
The Premier League table doesn't paint that picture to the extent that the underlying numbers do where Forest have been posting some impressive metrics for a while. If you collate their expected goals for and expected goals against difference since February 1, it comes out at +3.55 which is actually the sixth-best record of any team in the Premier League. Burnley sit second bottom on that front at -12.32.
With motivation added into the mix, that disparity in performance levels isn't shown in the outright market here so Forest look a cracking bet to me at 13/10 in the outright and 4/1 with Sky Bet to win the game and over 3.5 goals scored in the match.
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