Monday 23 February 2015 09:41, UK
Sky Sports tennis expert Mark Petchey is hopeful that Andy Murray can produce a solid performance at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships but would not bet against Novak Djokovic.
World No 1 Djokovic starts as clear favourite to walk away with his fifth title in the desert while Roger Federer will be chasing his seventh crown in the event, which gets underway on Sky Sports 3 on Monday.
Murray heads into the tournament having finished as runner-up to the superb Serb in the final of the Australian Open before suffering a surprise exit at the hands of Gilles Simon in Rotterdam last time out.
But with British No 2 James Ward and Ireland's James McGee keeping Murray company in the main draw, Petchey is hopeful all three players can do well, despite hot and sticky conditions expected during the week-long event.
Andy's main goal is to win a major this season and he came close in Australia. Clearly, he played pretty well in Melbourne, but he now has an opportunity at these events to go pretty deep and pick up points so he's got all the doors open to go and make that happen.
"It's tough to back against Novak right now after winning in Australia," he told Sky Sports Tennis. "His ability to dominate week in-week out and you do feel he has that stranglehold, especially in these kind of conditions. I'd be hard pressed to go against Novak right now.
"It's a great draw and they've always put on a great tournament in Dubai which is why the top guys keep going back.
"Andy's main goal is to win a major this season and he came close in Australia. Clearly, he played pretty well in Melbourne, but he now has an opportunity at these events to go pretty deep and pick up points so he's got all the doors open to go and make that happen.
"The confidence he would have gained, although he didn't get over the finishing line in Australia, will hold him in good stead.
"He's obviously had a good level of consistency down under in terms of reaching finals and the one downside to that is that there is an awfully long time between Australia and the French Open and this period has been difficult at times for him and that is clearly something he must guard against.
"It's a very important part of the season for him to build on the success in Melbourne heading to Paris."
Murray takes on world No 34 Gilles Muller, who is coached by Briton Jamie Delgado, in his opening match with a potential semi-final date against Federer and then an Australian Open final reunion against Djokovic.
Muller, who is 10-5 for the season, recently defeated David Goffin and Grigor Dimitrov before bowing out to eventual champion Stan Wawrinka in Rotterdam and Petchey expects a tough test against the left-hander from Luxembourg, despite an unbeaten record against him.
"Murray will be wary of how well Gilles can serve in particular, which is his strength, but in the course of Andy's career he has a phenomenal record against left-handers (59-18), but this is the first one he's played this season.
"The ball tends to fly a bit in the desert air so it will take a bit of adjustment for Andy. He won't be looking past Gilles because the first round is always tough."
After motivational notes written by Murray before his Rotterdam Open quarter-final defeat by Simon were published on Twitter by Dutch journalist Wilfred Genee, Petchey feels the Scot can act on the need to be dictating points during matches.
"There needs to be careful consideration when you look at Andy's game to feel as though that is one of the most important things.
"One of the great attributes he's always had is to defend and to mess opponents around and allow them to come at him and him to pick them off.
"From his perspective, that is always going to be a strength and should always be a strength. It shouldn't be negated to always trying to dictate rallies. That's not his natural style and sometimes that can override what can make him great.
"The noise surrounding Andy's game has always had a tendency to sort of say that he need to be more proactive. But I think there is always a balance that you need to strike in his game with being the guy on the front foot, but also utilising everything at his disposal, which is incredible feet, incredible feel and vision and being able to pick opponents off and he needs to stay true to that."
Ward, who made the main draw after winning his final qualifying match against Marius Copil from Romania, will be looking to break into the world's top 100 for the first time in his career with a good run in Dubai but faces Spain's Feliciano Lopez in his first match.
He's been one or two points away from breaking in the top 100, but this is a big week with opportunities and in the past we've seen people struggle in Dubai with the conditions because they're a little bit quicker.
The 28-year-old Londoner reached 102 last November and Petchey admits it will be a big week for the British No 2, with an opportunity to gain some momentum on the steamy hard courts.
"Ward was seeded in the qualifiers, but it's an extra 20 points and James is something like 50 points away from breaking in the top 100 for the first time.
"Obviously, he did win a round here last year (against Teymuraz Gabashvili), which is like 45 points and obviously that takes care of some of those points and if he could get a win in the opening round he's going to be even closer.
"He's been one or two points away from breaking in the top 100, but this is a big week with opportunities and in the past we've seen people struggle in Dubai with the conditions because they're a little bit quicker.
"I think having played qualifying as well this year, it's going to stand him in good stead heading into his first round match.
"It's a very big week for him. He's obviously been fit recently, so to come back and qualify bodes well."
McGee is first up on Centre Court against Portugal's Joao Sousa on Monday after the Irish No 1 was handed a Wild Card to play in the tournament.
McGee reached the main draw of a Grand Slam for the first time after famously clinching victory against China's Zhang Ze on his fifth match point at the US Open last year.
Although the 27-year-old bowed out to Aleksandr Nedovyesov in the main draw, his achievements were recognised in his native Ireland, and the world No 208 has now been handed an opportunity to make the trip from Dublin to Dubai.
He's one of those hard working players who loves the game and travels the world. He puts everything into it so let's hope he gets some potential reward this week.
"McGee was an awesome story at the US Open last year in qualifying," said Petchey. "I don't think too many of us that follow tennis will forget his reaction when he won 6-4 in that third set to qualify.
"He's obviously had a tough time since then in terms of winning matches. He made the semis at a Challenger (in Maui, Florida) last month, so I would think he will head to Dubai hoping for the best but not expecting to go far.
"It's great for the tournament to give him a chance. He's one of those hard working players who loves the game and travels the world. He puts everything into it so let's hope he gets some potential reward this week."
If McGee were to upset Sousa, he could end up playing Murray in the second round and Petchey is sure that will act as an incentive.
"He will need to find a bit more inspiration if he was to play Andy, but Andy has a very tricky opening match against Muller."
Watch live coverage of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Tournament all week on Sky Sports 3.
