Saturday 14 March 2015 17:01, UK
We set the scene for the Davis Cup tie between Great Britain and the USA - plus other World Group ties.
The Glasgow showdown looks the pick of this year’s Davis Cup World Group first-round ties.
It appears almost too close to call – indeed the bookies have it as a 50-50 match.
So how will it unfold?
The view that seems to be fairly widely held is that the highest-ranked player in the tie, Andy Murray, will win his two singles matches and the lowest-ranked, James Ward, will lose both of his, the tie thus being decided by Saturday’s doubles rubber.
But assuming that Murray will simply win his two singles rubbers flies in the face of the fact that he has lost to Borna Coric and Gilles Simon in recent weeks, both in fairly miserable fashion. He seems to be in something of a post-Australian Open malaise, a problem which has been a recurring one over the years. As Jim Courier said at Thursday’s press conference, no-one is unbeatable, especially in Davis Cup where players are regularly known to raise their game with their country’s name on their shirt.
American number one John Isner is hardly in sparkling form either, so there has to be real hope for the number two singles players – Ward and Donald Young both of whose confidence levels must be higher right now than their better-known team-mates. Ward is close to cracking the top 100 for the first time in his career while Young has been winning plenty of matches on the ATP World Tour of late, reaching the semis in Memphis and the final in Delray Beach.
However, it is certainly a risk that Jim Courier has taken in picking Young. He disappointed on his Davis Cup debut last year, winning just six games against Murray, and this will be his first taste of an away tie in the competition with the majority of a 7,000-plus crowd in the Emirates Arena cheering against him.
While Courier has already made his big decision, GB captain Leon Smith still has his in front of him.
Who he picks for the doubles will be scrutinised heavily. If he doesn’t pick Andy Murray and GB lose the rubber, flak will be coming his way. If he does and Murray is shattered for Sunday’s clash with Isner, it’s more grief for a man who has had little but praise so far during his tenure.
My personal view is that Murray will rise to the occasion and deliver the two points expected of him but the Bryans will claim the doubles.
Such a scenario will almost certainly mean a deciding rubber in which I’d give Ward a strong chance against Young, who is yet to deal with an occasion like this well.
The British number two has notched some terrific wins in Davis Cup in recent years, none bigger than against Sam Querrey against the Americans last year. He could well be the hero once again.
France are without both Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet for this one. They remain strong favourites, but look vulnerable. France have long been lauded for their strength in depth but they are beginning to look stretched here, calling up the uncapped Nicolas Mahut. Gael Monfils and Gilles Simon, both of whom are not the strongest players mentally. The visitors certainly have the potential to struggle as they enter the lion’s den of an away Davis Cup tie. As a result, the Germans look live outsiders. Philipp Kohlschreiber is fine player capable of winning two singles and also look well placed for Saturday’s doubles. A potential upset here.
The Czechs won the Davis Cup in both 2012 and 2013 but are up against it to stave off a first-round exit this time around. As outlined in my outright preview of this year’s competition, Australian tennis is very much on the up with a fine crop of youngsters currently being complemented by veteran Lleyton Hewitt. The Czechs would still have been favourites had Tomas Berdych been available but he’s opted out along with the other hero of their champion team, Radek Stepanek. Jiri Vesely and Lukas Rosol still have the ability to win this tie but Vesely has been playing a lot of tennis on clay so far this season. Australia have the better depth in their side and should progress.
The Kazakhs are perennially written off in this competition yet they remain in the World Group – this is their fifth consecutive year in the top tier. Last season they came as close as anyone to beating the eventual champions Switzerland and in their Astana stronghold they have beaten plenty of decent sides. They look capable of adding to those scalps here. Italy would much prefer to be on the clay, so much so that they have opted to leave their leading singles player Fabio Fognini out of the first day’s singles. He’s beat Rafael Nadal on clay last month but can’t be relied upon to beat much lesser players on this surface. Mikhail Kukushkin and Andrey Golubev are no mugs and can land the upset in this one.
Clay specialists of the world unite here. Argentina start worthy favourites but Brazil, led by Thomaz Bellucci, should not be written off. Missing their leading player Juan Martin Del Potro once again (although he is due to return from injury in Indian Wells next week), the Argentines don’t boast anyone in their team who will take firm control of the tie and the visitors should at least be competitive against their South American neighbours.
The banker tie of the first round. With Novak Djokovic back in the fold this season, the Serbs start as tournament favourites. He’ll be ably supported by Viktor Troicki, who returns to the side for the first time since his controversial drugs ban. Croatia’s hopes appeared to disappear when US Open champion Marin Cilic withdrew from the tie, although given he has yet to play in 2015 playing him would have been something of a gamble in any case. Instead teenager Borna Coric leads the side but even though he beat Andy Murray in Dubai recently, asking him to lead his side to victory in this one looks a mountainous task.
Many fancy the Canadians to lift the Davis Cup in the near future. Led by the huge-serving Milos Raonic, they also have Vasek Pospisil and Frank Dancevic as decent back-up, not to mention the experienced Daniel Nestor as a doubles specialist. They love to lay a fast hardcourt for their home ties to aid their chances and will hope that combination can see off the Japanese here. It’s no surprise to see them start favourites but with Japan having a player of Kei Nishikori’s quality in their line-up, they retain a strong chance. The world number four has a good record against Raonic and he will be confident of picking up at least two points. The visitors also have top-100 players Go Soeda and Tatsuma Ito in their team and if they perform at their best then this tie also has the potential for an upset.
This tie probably sums up the problems organisers of the Davis Cup face in getting their competition to live up to its tagline of the World Cup of Tennis. Most World Cups feature the very best players but for too long now tennis’ version has not. Having led the Swiss to the trophy last year, both Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka have opted out of this tie, leaving Switzerland looking little better than a club team. They have no singles player in the top 250 in their side for this tie and it’s hard to see how they can win against the hosts, even if Belgian star David Goffin is struggling. Federer depressingly described last year’s success as “a box ticked”. A cross can be put through the Swiss’ name this year.
