Saturday 24 January 2015 06:37, UK
Andy Murray's half of the Australian Open draw has been opened up by Roger Federer's exit, according to Barry Cowan.
Murray has shown excellent form in Melbourne and comfortably beat Portugal’s Joao Sousa to set up a meeting with Grigor Dimitrov for a place in the quarter-finals on Sunday.
The three-time Australian Open finalist has yet to drop a set in his first three matches, although still has not faced an opponent ranked in the top 50.
The British No 1 will expect a tougher test against 10th-seed Dimitrov, who overcame an inspired Marcos Baghdatis in five sets.
Sky Sports Tennis expert Cowan is expecting to see a much more competitive Murray than the one the Bulgarian beat handily at the All England Club last summer.
"He has had a kind draw,” Cowan said. “Through three players that under no way would I have expected him to have been in trouble with.
"The fact that he dealt with them comfortably without dropping a set will give him a lot of confidence going forward.
Certainly for Grigor, he has the personality and has the game, but he will have to play somewhere near his best to beat Andy.
“Now, that bottom half is wide open…I mean it's take your pick from a handful of players.
"Obviously last year was a disappointing year from him (Murray) in terms of big titles and the latter stages of slams. He struggled against the top three, but with (Roger) Federer being out there are question marks about everyone in that bottom half.
"There is now an opportunity for a Murray, for a Dimitrov, for a (Rafael) Nadal, for a (Tomas) Berdych to make the final."
Tough test
Murray holds a 4-2 advantage in their head-to-head record, but Dimitrov has won two of the last three, including in straight sets in the quarter-finals at SW19 last year.
"It's a tough draw," Cowan added. “Right from when the draw was made, that was going to be his first test.
"Certainly for Grigor, he has the personality and has the game, but he will have to play somewhere near his best to beat Andy.
"Andy is under a bit of pressure because he expects to win, everyone expects him to win and maybe that will help Dimitrov a little bit. That's a very, very dangerous match for Murray.
"Murray at his best is the better player and it's important to stress that even when he had an average year, Andy still finished above Dimitrov.
"I still think he's a better player but Andy has to take it to Dimitrov, which is something he didn't do at Wimbledon at all.
"I guess this is the first real test, whether Andy can play more aggressive - something he didn't do last year. It's something he did when he won Wimbledon, the US Open and the Olympics and I'm sure that's something he's aware of.
"When Murray is low on the big match confidence and he's apprehensive he reverts to type and that is being a little bit too passive.
"I went for Dimitrov (to beat Murray) at Wimbledon but I'm 55-45 in favour of Murray, so I think the longer it goes the more I would go for Murray. He will win in four sets."
Early exit
Roger Federer had not failed to reach the fourth round of the season-opening Grand Slam since his second trip to Melbourne Park in 2001, but the 17-time major champion suffered an Italian giant-killing against Andreas Seppi.
The four-time Australian Open winner had beaten Seppi in each of their previous 10 encounters, but the world No 46 won in four sets.
"That was a massive shock - I just didn't see that coming at all," Cowan admitted. "Andreas Seppi has played some good tennis but, given Roger's form and the fact that he has won Brisbane, it was a big, big surprise that he would lose to him in a Grand Slam."
Strong favourite
Cowan is still backing world No 1 Novak Djokovic to walk away with his fifth Melbourne crown, although he believes there are still a number of rising stars who can cause a shock in the tournament's second week.
"He was standout favourite before the tournament and is a firm favourite now. His record in Australia speaks for itself - not only is it a hard-court but the conditions favour him.
"Come the second week, all the big matches are played at night so he's got that advantage. When I looked at the draw at the start, I thought maybe the top half was weaker, but it's now stronger with Djokovic, with (Stan) Wawrinka, with (Milos) Raonic and (Kei) Nishikori. I think the top half is very, very exciting.
"I'm going to stick with Djokovic and Nishikori as my second favourite, but I just have a really strong feeling that something could happen for Raonic very shortly.
"He's building momentum every tournament he's playing at the moment. He played well in Brisbane and has started well in Australia. The top half is very strong and Djokovic can't afford a blip, but I can't see him having a blip to be honest. He's 100 per cent fit."
