Tuesday 23 June 2015 16:01, UK
With the start of Wimbledon less than a week away, Barry Cowan gives his verdict on five contenders for the men's singles title.
He’s my favourite actually. I thought what he did last week again was continuing the way he’s played this year. In difficult moments, he’s been able to play his best tennis and if he had not won the title at Queen’s, it would not have been a disaster. But by winning it, he now has more belief and when players are facing Murray – they see that he is playing his best tennis. How many of them are going out there believing that they can beat him? I think it’s only a small crop of players.
He’s ready. He knows he can handle the pressure. I think he plays great when there is actually a bit more pressure on him.
You feel watching him that you are confident that he can come through tough spells in matches. His body language shows that everything remains in his control. That has not happened overnight, that’s something that has been built up over six months.
Although he did not defeat Novak Djokovic at the French Open, I think he will have taken enough heart from that match - that if he was to play Novak at Wimbledon, then I believe it would be different. He may well have lost the last eight against Djokovic, but he has beaten him in the last two meetings on grass.
He’s ready. He knows he can handle the pressure. I think he plays great when there is actually a bit more pressure on him. The fact that he won it two years ago – it’s all set up for him to have a great Wimbledon.
Novak desperately wanted that French Open, he deserved it, but he wasn't able to win it and mentally that will have affected him a little bit.
I think that playing a grass tournament would have helped him to move on from what happened in the final at Paris. He would say - and I cannot argue – that physically and mentally he was exhausted after the French, but it can’t do you any harm playing a grass tour event. Murray and Rafa (Nadal) and Roger (Federer) have played warm-up events and have all won, so they will be feeling very confident whereas Djokovic will start off at Wimbledon a little unsure. As good a mover as Novak is – he moves better on clay and hard than he does on grass. Murray almost moves as well on grass as he does on the hard, and that also applies to Roger.
Novak playing six out of 10 can still take care of most players. I don’t see him having an upset and losing in the first week. The only way to beat Novak is to attack him, you have to rush him. Realistically the players that can beat him are Murray and Federer and while I don’t see Nadal beating him on grass, I do think Berdych could come into play.
I expected him to win last week. Clearly he is one of the best grass court players there has ever been and has played some great tennis this year, won four titles, however, none of them have been big titles.
Last week was encouraging. He didn't necessarily play his best tennis the whole time, but he was able to find the big serve again when it mattered. Particularly when he was down 5-4 in that tough deciding set tie-break against Phillip Kohlschreiber in the first round, Ivo Karlovic in the semi-finals, and even yesterday when Andreas Seppi was the better player in the first set. But Roger hung in there and looked far more comfortable in the second set.
He is going to be there and thereabouts again. He feels he can win Wimbledon. Realistically his chances of winning the Australian and French Open are very slim now, because of the speed of the courts, but you cannot rule him out at Wimbledon. He’s my second favourite. I thought he would beat Djokovic last year and I've seen enough from his matches against Djokovic on the quicker surfaces that he feels he can beat him and can rattle Novak a little bit. It’s going to take a top performance to beat Federer at Wimbledon.
I'm really excited about where Rafa is at the moment. I must confess that most people I have spoken to don’t think he will win another major, but I do.
He’s been under the spotlight, an incredible amount of pressure, for 10 years. He’s the greatest clay court player ever. How much longer can he keep that ‘King of Clay’ mantle? Well it’s gone. He’s not the best clay court player, he didn't win the French Open, his ranking has dropped. But Rafa quite likes going under the radar, being the underdog. How many times in the past have we heard him say that Federer and Djokovic were the favourites whenever he played them?
He’s got a free run now for the next six months. I've seen enough of his tennis this year to know that he’s playing well. What he hasn't done well at all is play his best tennis under extreme pressure against the very best. Well, that was applying to Federer 18 months ago and it was the same thing that was applying to Andy Murray eight months ago. When you've had the success that Rafa’s had, I just think it’s very brave to say that he’s done.
He’s had that extra week and he’s won a title at Stuttgart, so I expect really good things from him. If the draw is kind to Rafa, we might just get the big four back in the semis.
Last year he was further away from beating the top guys than he has ever been. He’s obviously changed coaches and now works with Andy Murray’s old coach Daniel Vallverdu and Jez Green, Andy’s old physical trainer. He’s had a very good year, played some really good matches.
In a strange way, what happened at the French where he had the disappointment of losing early, might work in his favour. Forget last week when he lost to Karlovic, because Ivo can do that to the best. He’s playing a lot more aggressively this year and if it clicks and he’s hot - he’s now in a position where he can claim those big wins again. That certainly wasn't the case last year when Djokovic took him to the cleaners more or less every time.
For me, again it’s just a gut feeling, he’s my fifth favourite.
Naturally on ranking and on form, Stanislas Wawrinka ticks the box, but Stan doesn't like quick courts as much as he likes slow courts and if it’s hot at Wimbledon and the court is playing quick, then he’s not able to play his brand of tennis as much as he would like.
