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ATP Paris Masters: Three World Tour Finals spots still up for grabs ahead of Paris event

Image: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Worth an each-way punt?

After another gruelling campaign, motivation and condition will be key at the Paris Masters this week.

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The contenders (and Sky Bet outright odds)

Novak Djokovic (6/4)
The Serb may have dropped down to number two in the world but is considered the favourite here as he seeks a hat-trick of titles. It is interesting to note that Djokovic has actually played the least amount of tournaments out of the top 100 players in 2013, allowing him to produce his best tennis at every event he has entered. While securing the end of year number one title is still possible, it is heavily dependent on Nadal's results so his motivation actually becomes greater if the Spaniard goes out early. A solitary title in six attempts points to his odds being somewhat short, but as aforementioned he is better placed to peak now due to a reduced schedule.
Rafael Nadal (9/4)
The Spaniard's record indoors points to a passive player suffering against the big hitters, but we've seen a more aggressive and powerful player since that hefty lay-off. Whether he still has enough in the tank to go hard in back-to-back events remains to be seen and, despite his remarkable levels of desire and commitment, the 'King of Clay' will surely hold celebrating his historic campaign with a first ATP World Tour Finals title as his priority.
Juan Martin del Potro (9/1)
The Argentinian will undoubtedly be a popular pick to prevail in Paris but his price is once again too short for a man yet to win a title at this tier, with his only top-tier success coming at the US Open back in 2009. Beating the best on the big stage is the issue, with the top names holding superior mental resilience. Fatigue is another concern, having gone the distance in his last three tournaments and with a berth in the World Tour Finals secure. The flip side of looking at it is he's in a great form and relatively pressure free with a London waiting regardless.
Roger Federer (14/1)
Federer's form is slowly but surely returning but the big question is whether, at 32, that upward trajectory can continue with a first title since Halle. I'd suggest that, given the toils of late, motivation will not be an issue as this single-minded champion will be craving that feeling of winning another title more than anything. The ultimate question is whether he can get back to that level of beating those currently above him in the rankings, to which the answer was no in Basel.
David Ferrer (22/1)
The reigning champion heads here on the back of successive final defeats. Ferrer has become the overachieving player he is due to his awareness of his strengths and weaknesses and will therefore be aware that winning the World Tour Finals is probably beyond him, so if the other big names fall then he'll be willing to give it his all to retain his title here.
The best of the rest
2005 champion Tomas Berdych is considered the same price as Ferrer due to the way his powerful, low percentage game lends itself to the environment. However, his form is poor, suffering early exits in Shanghai and Basel. Tsonga (28/1), who also won his solitary Masters title here, has struggled for form since his knee injury but boasts a tremendous record indoors, with seven of his 10 titles coming in the environment. The slower play will not aid him but nobody has greater motivation to prevail here, with a home crowd behind him and a place in London up for grabs, while fatigue shouldn't be an issue given his recent spell on the sidelines. Gasquet (40/1) has the same motivation and has two indoor titles to his name already this season, although his record in Masters events is poor, with almost as many loses as wins in the French capital. Wawrinka (33/1) needs a performance here as well but is hardly a man to back when the pressure is on, while Raonic (40/1) has the weapons to trouble.
Best bets:
Novak Djokovic to win - 6/4 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga each-way - 28/1 Djokovic to beat Tsonga in the final - 20/1 Milos Raonic each-way 40/1

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