Big win crucial to England's hopes of landing Six Nations crown, says Alex Payne
Friday 13 February 2015 18:09, UK
Sky Sports rugby presenter Alex Payne thinks a big win for England over Italy will be crucial to their chances of winning the Six Nations.
England v Italy
What a start for England to this year's Six Nations, and I think they're going to kick on against Italy on Saturday.
The Red Rose have won all 20 of their previous encounters against the Azzurri, though it is worth noting that in the last four meetings, two have finished within seven points, and two have finished with England posting 50+ points. I think this weekend, we're heading much more towards the latter, and I expect Chris Robshaw and his men to push through 40 points.
The other point to mention is that I think England have identified a big win against Italy as very important to their chances of winning the tournament. In 2013, they didn't put enough points on the Italians in the penultimate round which kept alive Wales' hopes of pinching the title on points difference in the final game. Last year, England had fun in the Rome sun and were one try short of pinching the title from Ireland.
I think England should be looking for six tries; skinny odds on the usual suspects so I'm going to pick a couple of value bets. Mike Brown looked lively in Cardiff and is 4/1 to repeat the double he scored against Italy last year. If you really want to go for it, Anthony Watson is 16/1 for a hat-trick - England wingers have scored four hat-tricks since Italy joined the tournament in 2000. Up front, James Haskell is 11/4 to avoid the post pads and get himself over the line.
One bet I am going to play is George Ford anytime try at 7/2. England fly halves have scored in three of the last six games against Italy, and I fancy Ford to pick off his first international try. A nod to the Ford full house there for at 25/1 with Sky Bet.
I've spoken before of the importance of getting off to a winning start in this tournament, and the England camp this week was buzzing to get back out there again. In contrast, Italy have lost Michele Campagnaro - arguably their sharpest attacking weapon, and Alessandro Zanni, a work horse in the back row.
England are the one side they have never beaten in this competition, and I think the gap in class and confidence heading to Twickenham means that blank will continue. England to beat the 29-point handicap at evens.
Scotland v Wales
The game at Murrayfield is, for me, the big one of the weekend. The loser will be in a bit of a tailspin seven months out from the World Cup; for all their recent optimism, if the Scots find themselves without a win in two, then the familiar grumbles will resurface. If Wales find themselves with two losses, then the media reaction could become extremely unpleasant in the Principality.
Scotland have lost 11 of the last 12 against Wales, and in truth not many of them have been that close. It was a 50-point hammering last season for the Scots, albeit with a red card after 22 minutes - but this should be tight.
The key factor for me is whether Scotland can shut down Wales as effectively as England did. They certainly weren't overrun by the French, but neither did they have enough punch up front to put away a fairly average and anxious home side.
After England, Warren Gatland needs a significant bounce back. They do have a history of producing exactly that - think winning the Six Nations in 2013 after an opening-day drubbing by Ireland, think the second Test in South Africa (which they should have won) after the first game mauling. But you wonder how often he can press that button with the same group of players.
I have wavered both ways, and calling Wales games is becoming a stressful business, but my gut tells me that this is going to Scotland. For the first time in a long time, Murrayfield expects rather than hopes and it's time for the team to deliver.
In terms of the scorers, Rhys Webb landed us a juicy 12/1 first try last week, but I'm going to offer up Liam Williams who comes in in place of George North and has been in good form for the Scarlets this season. Many thought he should have started last week, and a try on Sunday means he should get an extended run in the side.
The bet I'm really going to push though is Stuart Hogg for an anytime try. He will be desperate to make amends for that red card last season which led to the hammering, and I'm going to take Scotland to win a tight one by 1-5 at 5/1.
Ireland v France
Dublin holds the battle of two round-one winners; form is with Ireland who go looking for their ninth straight victory, history is with the French who have only lost to Ireland twice in the last fifteen meetings. To add to that, Ireland have only won three of their last 16 home games with the French stretching back to 1983, and that sort of record has to weigh on a team.
There are other concerns for Ireland too. The selection headlines are about the returning Lions, but Jonny Sexton and Sean O'Brien have played very little rugby, and the previously indestructible Jamie Heaslip has been suffering with shoulder and knee problems of late. Can they hit the ground running and launch into round 2?
Both of these two teams landed our bets last week, Ireland's breaking clear of the 13 point handicap against Italy after a 60-minute arm wrestle, and France's seven point win over Scotland bringing home our prediction of a 6-10 point victory. Although I'm wary of French history, these two are playing at different levels at the moment, and I think Ireland will get home by 11-15 at 5/1.
France obviously drew a blank last week with the try scorers, and it is difficult to see where they are going to come from against a tight Irish defence that only conceded one try in three home games in last year’s Six Nations. I would consider no French try at 2/1, but it might be worth covering off Huget and Thomas for a poacher's try.
For Ireland, the returning Sexton should bring a sharper edge to their attacking game.
Indeed, he was joint top try scorer in last season’s tournament and grabbed a double against France in the final game. He is 4/1 for an anytime try and a tasty 33/1 to grab two. O’Brien remains the most destructive ball carrier for the home side (5/1 for an anytime try) while Rory Best offers a similar cannonball approach to the game and longer odds at 9/1. The guy I really fancy this weekend is Rob Kearney; he's 12/1 for the first try but if you’re a little more cautious he’s 3/1 for an anytime score.
Payne's Picks: Ireland by 11-15pts 5/1; Rob Kearney 1st try 12/1; No French tryscorer 2/1
So that gives us an accumulator of England, Scotland and Ireland for wins this weekend at 11/4.
