Friday 27 February 2015 16:37, UK
Sky Sports Rugby's Alex Payne has tipped up wins for England, Scotland and France in the Six Nations this weekend, and here's why.
Scotland v Italy
Picking through the bones of the Wales defeat will have been a frustrating process for Vern Cotter and his team, but for all the chances they blew there is the silver lining that at least they are creating them. This, however, has to be the game where Scotland finally deliver the result their recent performances have been promising.
Italy will certainly provide more opportunities for the Scots, and although they know this is the Wooden Spoon decider, historically this is where the Italian levels of puff and hope begin to dip. And history seems to be repeating itself if the show against England is anything to go by; competitive for 55 minutes only to fall to a 30-point defeat was an all-too-familiar tale.
The stats encourage investment on Scottish backs in jersey’s 11-15, who have scored 11 of Scotland’s last 16 tries. The back three have actually racked up nine of those on their own, with Stuart Hogg the most prolific with four in his last six starts (2/1 anytime), including one which delivered for my blog in round two. If you fancy Scotland to go for it, Tommy Seymour is 6/1 for a double but a more cautious bet is Alex Dunbar, who scored two against Italy a year ago, and is 9/2 to add another. It is also worth mentioning there are two debutants in the Italian back line and Scotland will look to expose that inexperience.
For Italy, Luca Morisi is 10/1 to add another try to his Twickenham double, Parisse gets his obligatory mention at 9/2 but also worth a pound on the athletic Josh Furno at 11/1 for a five pointer - he did score an impressive try for Newcastle last week and crossed against the Scots last season.
The Scots have won five of the last six against Italy and I think that will become six from seven, by 16-20 at 5/1.
France v Wales
Paris hosts the mid-table battle this weekend and this is the match that will define the Championship for Wales. Win and they’re back in the game, lose and they are taking on water six months from the World Cup. The victory over Scotland was far from impressive and for a coach who believes in consistency of selection, the fact Gatland has changed four indicates he’s looking for more.
Despite the fact that Wales have won their last three against France and Les Blues have mustered just three wins in their last nine internationals, I fancy France as winners on Saturday. Morgan Parra at nine should make a huge difference to their organisation, and his recall also puts a Clermont spine at eight, nine, 10 and 12 – familiarity that can only help. Having seen Wales creak up front to England, I think they are going to struggle to handle this massive French outfit so I’m going with the home side by 6-10 at 9/2.
For Wales, it is worth highlighting George North at 7/2 who has scored against France in his last two games and is the youngest player to reach 50 caps on Saturday. But I’m going to push Liam Williams again at 6/1 for an anytime try and hope the match officials don’t deny us as per round two.
For France, Brice Dulin cuts some lovely lines from full back (I like the 12/1 for Dulin to score an anytime try and France to win), Mathieu Basteraud’s formidable presence from the bench might be worth a sniff as last try scorer but the guy I’m really going to plug is Sofiane Guitoune. He had a couple of caps back in 2013, but has been superb for Bordeaux recently. He has box office potential and I fancy him to pick up an anytime try at 4/1.
Ireland v England
Is it too much to call this the Championship decider? Both have two wins from two, England have taken more of the plaudits and played the more eye-catching rugby. Ireland have been workmanlike and effective, but haven’t exactly crackled.
England have had the better of the recent history with four wins on the trot over Ireland, though the men in green had won seven of the previous eight games. The last two matches have been low scoring, tight and dominated by defence.
England’s bounce back after the disappointments of the autumn has been impressive, but Ireland have been building for some time. They have won their last eight at home and are going for a 10th straight win in all games on Sunday. But several of those wins have left a few lingering questions.
Although they have the game’s best tactician in Joe Schmidt, a sensational half-back kicking game and a ferocious defence, if you remove a team’s foundations a lot of your plans go out of the window. We have seen that in three of the four previous games when England have kept Ireland tryless and, if they can keep their discipline, I think England’s superiority up front means that they shade it again - just. I'm backing England by 1-5 at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
I’m not sure we’re looking at a free-scoring festival. Jonathan Joseph’s hot-streak means he has to be mentioned again (7/2 for an anytime try), but the extra attention he is bound to be given might open up opportunities for Luther Burrell and I like the 5/1 for first try scorer.
For Ireland, Robbie Henshaw is likely to be tasked with running hard at the Ford-Burrell channel and is 17/2 to cross for his first Ireland try. But Ireland’s back three poses the most threat with eight of their last 14 Irish tries, Simon Zebo has scored three in his last six and is 9/4 to make that four in seven.
Finally, the England win along with France at Scotland returns at 7/2 if you fancy the accumulator.