Wednesday 4 March 2015 11:50, UK
With the Six Nations on a two-week sabbatical ahead of the final two rounds, it gives us the chance to review the fortunes of each nation.
Ireland are overwhelming favourites to retain their crown but should they slip up, Wales and England are waiting in the wings. These countries will occupy the top three positions for the third time in four years, but in what order?
In the bottom half, Scotland have endured a championship to forget and are odds-on to finish bottom. Italy have shown signs of improvement, while France continue to plumb new depths.
Joe Schmidt has steered Ireland to a record-equalling 10 wins in succession, putting them on course for back-to-back Six Nations titles. The New Zealander is a master tactician and has turned Ireland in a clinical outfit, extremely efficient in their breakdown work and kicking game.
Ireland’s set piece looked more solid in the win over England, in particular the scrum, and they are excellent when it comes to building – and defending – a lead. They won’t win any plaudits for their style of play but it has proven hugely effective. England knew exactly what was coming when they ran out at the Aviva Stadium yet they weren’t able to deal with it.
Ireland are, quite simply, ruthless. When Stuart Lancaster’s men were playing advantage in the first half, George Ford opted for a drop goal. When Ireland found themselves in a similar situation in the second period, Conor Murray and Robbie Henshaw produced a training ground move which resulted in the game’s only try. Why go for three points when you have a free play?
The hamstring strain suffered by Johnny Sexton will be a cause for concern, as is the chance that he could feature for Racing Metro this weekend. Murray and Sexton are one of the best half-back pairings in international rugby, and their durability could prove decisive in Ireland’s quest for a second Grand Slam in seven seasons.
Stuart Lancaster’s men were completely outplayed in Dublin but there’s no need to panic just yet. England remain in the hunt for a Six Nations title, and provided Wales do them a favour against Ireland they will be confident of winning their remaining two games, both of which are at Twickenham.
Lancaster’s injury problems are clearing up, with second rows Courtney Lawes and Geoff Parling back in action for their clubs, while Mike Brown is likely to return at full-back for the Calcutta Cup clash with Scotland.
The vulnerability of England’s back three under the high ball against Ireland is worrying, while their game management was also poor. It wasn’t until Simon Zebo took his fifth catch that they realised it was time for a change of strategy. The set piece was shaky, with Joe Marler failing to trouble Mike Ross in the scrum, while their decision to turn down three points in favour of kicking into touch during the first half completely backfired.
The Scotland game gives England the chance to rectify those issues and they should also account for a poor French side, but given the focus on Lancaster and his players ahead of the World Cup, they need to finish with a flourish.
Ireland’s win over England has opened the door for Wales, who are sensing a repeat of their 2013 Six Nations success, when they also lost their opening game.
After the disappointment of their defeat to England, Warren Gatland’s men are back in the hunt for a third championship in four seasons thanks to away wins in Edinburgh and Paris. Their set piece was superb against France, Jamie Roberts was at his ball-carrying best, while Dan Biggar continues to grow into the No 10 jersey.
Fortunately for Wales, the injury to Sam Warburton isn’t serious, as they need their skipper to be operating at 100 per cent for what will be an attritional breakdown battle against Ireland.
There has been no major shift in approach from Wales, and they will need to show more attacking flair if they are to trouble an Irish defence that has conceded just one try in three games. But if their pack can repeat their Paris heroics, Gatland’s side will believe they can cope with Ireland’s aerial bombardment.
Such is France’s desperate form, it is quite incredible that Philippe Saint-Andre remains in a job. Under his stewardship they have become a boring, one-dimensional side, and while the influx of overseas players to the Top 14 is certainly a factor, it’s still no excuse.
Les Bleus lost to Wales for the fourth successive game last weekend and Saint-Andre is clutching at straws with his assertion that they have actually improved since the countries' last meeting in Paris in 2013. France were beaten 16-6 on that occasion and while the margin of victory has narrowed, that is where the positives end for Saint-Andre.
French flair has become a distant memory, with their coach preferring to try and pummel teams off the park, but it hasn’t yielded results. This is Saint-Andre’s fourth Six Nations campaign and his record is abysmal. Two fourth-placed finishes sandwich a wooden spoon, and back-to-back defeats this year has all but ended their hopes of a first title since 2010.
Saint-Andre took a swipe at his players following the loss to Wales, describing them as “the Father Christmas of international rugby”. If he is starting to turn on the players there must now be question marks over whether he will still be in charge come the World Cup.
France’s final two Six Nations games are away to Italy and England. On current form the trip to Rome is a potential banana skin, the trip to Twickenham a potential hiding. Rugby fans will be thankful those matches aren’t in Paris; the pitch in the Stade de France is as poor as the national team at the moment.
The Azzurri look to have avoided back-to-back wooden spoons following their superb late show in Murrayfield, which is only their second away victory in 40 attempts.
Given France's poor form, Jacques Brunel will be busy plotting his own countrymen’s downfall ahead of their visit to Rome on March 15.
Italy lack real strength in depth and crave a quality goalkicker, with fly-half Kelly Haimona landing just three of his nine attempts in the championship, but they do possess an outstanding captain in Sergio Parisse. The No 8 carried 11 times for 55 metres against Scotland and also stole a lineout, and remains a phenomenal leader.
Having beaten the Scots, some of the pressure is off Italy for their two remaining games at home to France and Wales. A second win would represent a decent return after a disastrous 2014, and if it’s against the former – who are also in their World Cup pool – it will increase hopes of reaching the quarter-finals for the first time.
Scotland’s performances in the autumn have been long forgotten following three successive Six Nations defeats, the latest a disastrous home loss to Italy.
Vern Cotter’s side somehow managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against the Azzurri, while the Wales game also ranks as a missed opportunity. The smashed glass door in their coaching box sums up the mood of Scottish rugby at the moment.
One of the most frustrating things for Cotter and his coaching staff will be Scotland’s poor discipline. They have conceded 38 penalties in three games and received four yellow cards, with a late penalty try costing them victory against Italy. Game management is also a concern, as is their concentration levels after scoring.
Three home victories had been a realistic target for Scotland at the start of the tournament; now they face a battle to avoid the wooden spoon. Next up for them is a trip to Twickenham, where they last won in 1983, with Grand Slam-chasing Ireland visiting Murrayfield in the final round.
