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England v Australia: Alex Payne says pack can power England to victory over Wallabies

Stuart Lancaster's side bid to extend winning run against Australia

LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 08:  Jonny May of England breaks free to score the opening try during the QBE International match between England and New Zealan
Image: Jonny May : In great try scoring form this season

It has been just over 11 years since England beat Australia to lift the Webb Ellis trophy, but both these two sides look some way from the summit of the game right now.

England only ended a five game losing run against Samoa, Australia have won just three of their last 10 Tests.

Sky Bet have given England a four point start, and it does feel like a one score game.  It is easy to make a case for either side; England have won three of the last four meetings, but Australia have won four of the last seven at Twickenham.  England have a great pack, but are struggling with their creativity. Australia can score from anywhere but always perceived to struggle up front.  

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Alex Payne previews the Autumn International between England and Australia at Twickenham.

In terms of the action, England have scored the first try in three of their last four games at Twickenham, while the Wallabies have conceded the first try in five of their last six away games - so Jonny May (15/2 first try), Anthony Watson (10/1 first try) and Brown (12/1 first try) all give good returns.  Watson kindly gave the ball to Brown over the try line last weekend to deny our May/Watson double, so I hope he rewards those of you who back him this week!  

The Wallabies have had a few problems with their fringe defence this autumn, with three scrum halves scoring against them in the last four Tests.  Ben Youngs (3/1 anytime), who has previous against the Wallabies, will be aware.  And if England get their driving maul going again how about a captain’s try from Chris Robshaw at 5/1, he scored in this fixture last year.

Nine and 10 both scored for the Wallabies last week, but I’m going to focus on 12 and 14.  Matt Toomua has become an ever present in gold, and steam rollered Billy Twelvetrees to score at Twickenham last year. I think he’ll run hard at the Ford/Twelvetrees channel again and 6/1 anytime is very juicy for a guy in great form.  And stick with Henry Speight, who went very close last week - he's 5/2 anytime to do so this week.  

More from Autumn Internationals 2014

With the weather set fair, I think both sides will want to play so I’d look at overs in the totals, for points and tries.  I have really wrestled with the outcome of this one, I think Australia are capable of playing better rugby than England, but I think the home side will play power, territory and control the pace of the game and I think that will be enough to see them to a victory by 1-5 at 9/2.

Payne's Picks: England to beat Australia - 4/6; England to beat Australia by 1-5 pts - 9/2; Jonny May first try - 15/2; Matt Toomua anytime try - 6/1

Wales v South Africa

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Alex Payne previews the Autumn International between Wales and South Africa in Cardiff.

When will the misery end for Wales and Warren?  Twenty-eight games against the southern hemisphere’s big three, just one win.  Against the Boks specifically, history is not a friend either with only one win in 29 Tests - the most recent result being another agonising last gasp loss in the second test in June.   The pressure point in Wales has been well and truly exposed by the media this week and only a victory will offer relief.

At some point this losing run will end, but I’m not sure it will be this weekend.  I think there will be too much of a hang over from the All Black game, and Shaun Edwards was with us in studio a couple of weeks ago and said the fourth international is always a massive challenge.  Remove George North, Paul James and Richard Hibbard and Wales strength in depth is in for a stern test.  

South Africa are missing a few as well including Habana, Pietersen and Burger, but they will be much fresher after the amble past Italy last weekend. I think that freshness could do for Wales late on, again.

And with that in mind I’d consider the South African back three as late try scorers; Cornal Hendricks scored in both Tests against Wales in the summer and is 15/2 for the final try, Lwazi Mvovo comes in at the same odds.  Willie le Roux scored 3 in 2 against Wales in June, but has hit a run of 9 games without a try.  I think his barren run will come to an end sooner that Wales’ and he’s 3/1 for an anytime try.  However, if you back the bus philosophy then consider the whopping 20/1 with Sky Bet for a double.

Rhys Webb scored against the Aussies and the All Blacks and is 7/2 anytime for a Tri Nations treble this autumn. Liam Williams (5/2 anytime) has been one of the sharpest players in the principality this season, and has an extra motivation after he conceded the penalty try in the summer which saw South Africa home to the win in that second test.

This run of narrow losses has becoming boringly repetitive for Wales, but I don’t think there are any compelling reasons why it is going to change.  Five of the last seven have finished with South Africa ahead by five points or less, and that’s where I’ve gone again at 9/2.

Payne's Picks: South Africa to beat Wales - 1/2; South Africa to beat Wales by 1-5 pts - 9/2; Willie Le Roux to score two or more tries - 20/1; Rhys Webb anytime try - 7/2.

So if you want to play anytime try scorers across both games I’ve gone Watson and Le Roux at 14/1 with Sky Bet.

And I’m backing wins for England and South Africa at 13/8.

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