Tuesday 10 March 2015 16:45, UK
Sky Sports presenter Ed Chamberlin can barely contain his excitement ahead of the Cheltenham Festival in his latest column.
The wait is nearly over.
Four of the best days, not just in racing, but in the entire sporting calendar kick off on Tuesday at Cheltenham.
Putting together the ante-post portfolio over the last few months in this column has been a lot of fun and quite a roller coaster ride. There have been disappointments - notably Gilgamboa - but we have a couple of big runners, in particular Ma Filleule in the Ryanair at 20/1. AP McCoy has also done us a big favour with Hargam and we might still get a run with Kilcrea Vale.
Boston Bob in the Betfred Gold Cup at 16/1
Hargam in the JCB Triumph Hurdle at 16/1
Gilgamboa in the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase at 20/1
Ma Filleule in the Ryanair Chase at 20/1
Kilcrea Vale in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle at 16/1
Mr Mole in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at 8/1
Alvisio Ville in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 14/1
Nichols Canyon in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 9/2
Here we go then. The opening day is all about the Willie Mullins big guns and will be make or break for the bookmakers.
I'm happy to watch Un De Sceaux, Faugheen and Annie Power. All great races and potential stories but no betting propositions.
I sense we could see a spectacular, headline-making performance from Faugheen in the Stan James Champion Hurdle, though. Jezki will run his best race of the season back under his favourite conditions and can confirm last year's form with The New One and Hurricane Fly but that's unlikely to be good enough as Faugheen looks something special.
The show kicks off with the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Last year it was a huge thrill to be in the paddock with the sponsors and I can't wait to experience it all again.
The race itself is a lot more open than the betting suggests. I'm not a layer of Douvan at around 7/4 as he could easily be an aeroplane but I have zero interest in backing him at those odds.
Granted, his wins at Gowran Park and Punchestown were impressive on the eye, but both were on right-handed tracks on seriously testing ground. What's he going to be like on better ground, going a serious pace on a left-handed, undulating track?
People have got carried away with Willie Mullins describing Douvan as “one of the nicest horses we’ve ever taken over there”. Well "nicest" to me refers to looks not speed and no bloke likes to be described as nice!
L'Ami Serge is the horse with Grade One form in the book and looks sure to be on the premises, while Alvisio Ville has been on my radar since before he made an impressive debut at Leopardstown over Christmas.
He looked to have all the qualities you look for in a Supreme horse that day, and I was bitterly disappointed with his lacklustre effort behind Nichols Canyon in the Deloitte Hurdle last month. I hope he can bounce back for our antepost bet.
Four of the first five races feature strong favourites, begging the question are you with me or against me? Well, as a jumps fan I can't wait to see them all for the sheer spectacle, but my first betting interest will be Sausalito Sunrise in the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase.
Philip Hobbs' charge is handily perched on a mark of 145 and I'm not worried about him taking on experienced handicappers in his novice season; in fact, I like the angle. His jumping looked assured before falling in the Feltham last time and I wouldn't be too unnerved by that mishap.
The prospect of better ground at Cheltenham will play to his strengths and 10/1 with Sky Bet is tempting. I had him booked for a strong showing in the RSA Chase but the betting and vibes in recent weeks suggest this is his target. King has a good record in the race and stablemate Ned Stark is a danger with a similar profile to the selection.
The Toby Balding National Hunt Chase is a race I like, though we were agonisingly touched off with Shotgun Paddy 12 months ago.
Cause Of Causes was even more unlucky not to catch Spring Heeled in the Kim Muir last year, when a final fence blunder cost him his chance of glory. In defeat, he showed a test of stamina was his game and Gordon Elliott, who I fancy to have a good time of things, will have him bouncing for this.
Highly tried both starts this season, including a fair run behind Dedigout in the Galmoy Hurdle on his latest outing, this will be more to his liking and I expect him to finish in the frame at least. At 10/1 with Sky Bet, he is worth an each-way interest, boasting proven Festival form.
I've had Killala Quay marked down as one of my each-way bankers of the entire meeting for a good while and as long as the ground is no worse than good to soft, I see no reason to ditch him at this late stage.
I've had Killala Quay marked down as one of my each-way bankers of the entire meeting for a good while and as long as the ground is no worse than good to soft, I see no reason to ditch him at this late stage. If you get the chance, watch his run in the Neptune last year, and try telling me he isn't well-in off 140?
Charlie Longsdon has done well to get him qualified for the CHAPS Restaurant Barbados Novices’ Chase and although he will be carrying top weight, the handicap will be truncated, such is the competitive nature of the race. He jumps well and stays, but soft ground would make him a scratch, for me.
If it's decent ground, I'll have no qualms about throwing a second dart at this, by including the Nicky Henderson-trained Cocktails At Dawn, who is 20/1 in places. He's no friend of the punter (beaten favourite last four starts, twice at odds-on), but he is going to run a massive race if he gets his preferred good going. Thomas Crapper is another one you should have on your shortlist in a cracking contest.
Day One Selections:
2.40 Sausalito Sunrise
4.40 Cause Of Causes
5.15 Killala Quay
5.15 Cocktails At Dawn
Day two revolves around one horse for me: Nichols Canyon. You'll hear and read plenty about his bad action and how he doesn't work well at home etc. Yet his Deloitte performance is the standout performance by a novice this season. It's what he does on the racecourse that counts.
For example, Jollyallan who is fancied in the Supreme, beat Sempre Medici by four lengths at Kempton on Boxing Day. Sempre Medici was beaten out of sight (62 lengths) by Nichols Canyon in the Deloitte. The new Inglis Drever could be hailed at 1.35 on Wednesday.
Mullins could be at it again in the RSA. It's a strong renewal but Don Poli could easily be different class to the rest. I love his attitude, the way he jumps and, most importantly, he has course form.
Don Poli looks rock solid and it's tempting to back him now for the 2016 Gold Cup. Kings Palace was my big fancy this time last year but that was a bad experience for him and bossing small fields looks more his cup of tea.
The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase looks ripe for an upset.
Sprinter Sacre regaining his title would be the story of the week but that's unlikely. He'd have to win it on the bridle, which is surely impossible after the experience he's been through.
Sire de Grugy has had a rushed preparation and drying ground would be a major concern. Last year's race probably didn't take that that much winning either as they went far too fast up front and all he had to beat was Somersby and the veteran Sizing Europe.
Dodging Bullets is better going right handed in winter ground and possibly over further. The race at Ascot might have been his Champion Chase, while this looks an afterthought for Champagne Fever. Although vibes from Ireland are strong, how can a horse beaten by Western Warhorse and then expected to be a Gold Cup type have the pace to win a Champion Chase?
Ruby Walsh often says that Champagne Fever is at his best when fresh. He's not fresh this time around.
There are question marks against all of them at the head of the market and the rest look much of a muchness. Something can spring a surprise and I'm happy to have Mr Mole running for us.
I will then have to back Supasundae to win the Champion Bumper. Obviously.
Day Two Selections:
1.30 Nichols Canyon (nb)
2.05 Don Poli
The JLT looks a really good race this year with a deep field. Ptit Zig, Valseur Lido and Apache Stronghold will all have big supporters.
Truth is that if Vautour is at his best and able to dominate from the front, he will win. But both are big 'ifs'. If his jumping is sticky and scratchy early on again he won't be able to dominate this field.
Tony Martin's Edeymi is a 'live' one for the Pertemps Final, with all and sundry singing his praises at preview nights either side of the Irish Sea. He caught the eye behind Dawalan over three miles at Musselburgh last time, when he was given an easy time of things. However, there is still a stamina concern for me.
Brother Brian's form is solid in the context of this race and connections did well to only get a 4lb hike, when beaten less than eight lengths behind Rock On Ruby in the Relkeel Hurdle. Hughie Morrison is a sound placer of his horses but that was one of the craziest bits of placing he's done in his career, and he can be thankful he still has a well-handicapped horse to go to war with.
Brother Brian loves going left-handed and a race like the Pertemps is made for him. Back him each-way, along with the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Sybarite.
The nine-year-old is a character and often leaves himself with a lot to do in his races, by getting outpaced. However, he has flown up the hill in each of his last two starts and if he is within ten lengths of the leading bunch turning for home we are in business.
If the Irish have plundered the first two days then Don Cossack could go off a crazy price in the Ryanair. I'm happy to take him on, especially if the ground is drying up. He was thrashed by Holywell at Aintree last season having jumped poorly in the RSA.
Everything looks in Ma Filleule's favour. She's best in the spring, going left handed and on decent ground. She's also a superb jumper and the quicker they go, the better she jumps. Getting the allowance Ma Filleule is going to be very hard to beat.
I've been banging on about Ma Filleule in this column for weeks. I love this mare. She has course form after running Holywell close last year, which looks outstanding form. We are on her at 20/1 and I think she has a massive chance.
Everything looks in Ma Filleule's favour. She's best in the spring, going left handed and on decent ground. She's also a superb jumper and the quicker they go, the better she jumps. Getting the allowance Ma Filleule is going to be very hard to beat.
Like the Champion Chase, the Ladbrokes World Hurdle is another race ripe for an upset. The Irish don't look a strong bunch, while the English look evenly matched and there's no outstanding candidate. I'd love to see Rock On Ruby win it.
Day Three Selections:
2.05 Brother Brian (e/w)
2.05 Sybarite (e/w)
2.40 Ma Filleule (NAP)
I'd love to see a star born in the Triumph and Peace And Co to win it. He has so much ability but the big question is whether he will settle.
Why also are Simon Munir and Isaac Souede throwing other bullets at the race? Their second string, Top Notch, who boasts a 5-5 career record looks rock solid. He doesn't have the sexy turn of foot of a Peace And Co, but he gets the job done in a workmanlike fashion and keeps finding when pressure is applied.
If Peace And Co is Thierry Henry then Top Notch is Patrick Vieira. I know which style I prefer in the Triumph. Put it this way, if Peace And Co and Top Notch jump the last upsides, both under pressure, I want to be on the grinder every time.
All five of Top Notch's win have varied from good to soft to heavy, but the prospect of good ground holds no fears either. I don't see his double-figure odds lasting into next Friday.
The unbeaten Beltor was thrilling at Kempton and shouldn't be underestimated, while Hargam was AP McCoy's horse to follow back in the autumn and is a runner for us at 16/1. If Hargam doesn't win next week we'll get our money back at Aintree as he looks tailor-made for that track.
The Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle looks typically hard, as does the Albert Bartlett.
I don't buy into the chat about Silviniaco Conti not acting around Cheltenham, despite his 0-3 record at the track. He's yet to run a bad race in defeat there. Having said that, I still don't want to back him for the Betfred Gold Cup, especially if we get a dry week and there is better value to be had elsewhere.
Holywell has done me a favour at the Festival before and I fancy him to maintain his impeccable Cheltenham record.
His profile is that of a spring horse and I'd be inclined to ignore pre-Christmas form, as connections only mess with him through the winter months, before getting serious for the big spring meetings.
His jumping could be better, but he was brilliant at his obstacles when edging out Ma Filleule in a handicap at the meeting last year, and proved his credentials for a race like the Gold Cup at Aintree just a few weeks later, when blitzing a quality field.
If Holywell's jumping holds up and he's still in contention coming down the hill, he will win.
Don Poli's easy win in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle was one of the highlights for me last year, and I fancy the same connections to repeat the dose with a similar type in Roi Des Francs.
I watched him win at Thurles on his penultimate start and immediately had him down as a potential winner of the conditionals' race. Talk of running him in the Albert Bartlett put me off getting involved early and we've missed the juicy prices.
I intend to back Roi Des Francs sooner rather than later, along with Nicky Henderson's Full Shift, who was a disappointing favourite behind Don Poli last year. He's been off since, but goes well fresh and I can see him running a big race.
In a bid to put a smile on faces, I reckon I've found a live one for the Grand Annual. It comes with risks, though, as the Harry Fry-trained Karinga Dancer must have good ground to be seen at his best.
It's not worth taking the 25/1 now, as you wouldn't back him at 250/1 with cut in the ground. He detested the soft ground at Newbury last time, but still showed enough to get you interested back in handicap company and I get the feeling his trainer has mapped him out for this race.
Rain, rain stay away, come back another day!
Day Four Selections:
1.05 Top Notch
3.20 Holywell
4.40 Rio Des Francs
4.40 Full Shift
5.15 Karinga Dancer
