Saturday 31 January 2015 15:35, UK
Sky Sports US sports blogger Alex Ferguson takes you through his best bets for this year’s NFL finale.
The Super Bowl has always been a key time for people to place bets on everything from winners to coin tosses, to the length of the national anthem, and this year Sky Bet is offering customers 89 (that’s right – eighty-nine) different ways to get even more than great viewing from this year’s Super Bowl live on Sky Sports. Here are some bets that I think are worthwhile...
1. I love Marshawn Lynch to go over 90.5 yards
Marshawn Lynch, the running back of the Seattle Seahawks, is 10/11 to run for 90.5 yards. I like this, and I like it a lot. Don’t panic if New England’s defense doesn’t bend at the start of the game – Lynch is the type of player who asserts himself more as the game goes on. The Pats have given up 100 yards or more in three of their last four games to less talented runners than Lynch.
2. LeGarrette Blount or Jonas Gray is going to score a touchdown
LeGarrette Blount has been a blessing to Patriots’ fans since getting picked up at the end of the season, and he scored three touchdowns in the dismantling of Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game. I think the Seahawks are going to play a lot of ‘Bend but don’t break’ defense, and if the Pats end up on the Seahawks 1, expect Blount to smash it in. If it’s not Blount, then Jonas Gray, who, at 4/1 with SkyBet is worth a quid.
3. Bring out your tight ends!
A lot has been made of New England Patriots wide receiver Rob Gronkowski, and for good reason: he’s the best tight end in the league. But if Seattle’s secondary is as good as they say it is (and believe me, they do a lot of talking), they are going to have Gronkowski in man coverage almost all night long. Which leaves things open to Bill Belichick’s two other tight ends, Tim Wright and the difficult-to-pronounce Michael Hoomanawanui – both of whom could prove priceless. Sky Bet currently has a Boost! bet on ‘Gronk’ or Marshawn Lynch to score the first touchdown at 9/2. Gronk is also 8/11 hot favourite to score a touchdown anytime during the game, while Wright is 7/2 and Hoomanawanui is 10/2. Remember: Don’t ever underestimate Belichick.
4. Brady’s a bigger passer than Wilson
Tom Brady is 10/11 to throw 45.5 yards more than Russell Wilson. I’ll take Brady, simply because the offensive setup is more about him throwing the ball than Wilson’s. Wilson can also run and throw (even though he didn’t really prove it against Green Bay), but Wilson’s also got Lynch, which means you’ll see a lot more emphasis on the ball control from Seattle.
Plus, there’s also the fact that Wilson could suffer from the same jitters that he did in his inept three quarters in the NFC Championship Game, in which he threw for four picks. If that happens in the Super Bowl, then the fiver you stuck on Brady to throw 50 yards more than Russell Wilson is as close to guaranteed as it’s going to get.
If you want to be really cheeky, go for Brady to throw for over 260.5 yards against Seattle’s defence (10/11), which has given up 668 total yards in two games, including 401 through the air.
5. Luke Willson – over/under 35.5 yards
I like Seattle’s tight end for receiving for over 35.5 yards on the day. Here’s why: from Week 1 onwards he’s had four games of over 35.5 yards, and two games of being close to that marker (28 and 31). He also snagged four TDs this season. The Pats haven’t been great at defending tight ends this season, and I think that a lot of focus will be on how Darrelle Revis and the secondary cover Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, hence opening it up for Willson. He’s 10/11 to get the ‘over’, and I like it.
And while you’re at it, he’s 5/2 on scoring a touchdown anytime during the game. Surely that’s worth a cheeky quid?
6. When the teams score – before/after 7 mins 30
As this isn’t dependent on whether it’s a field goal or a touchdown, I’m going to take the ‘before’ – a hot favourite at 8/13. Here’s why: Both teams are pretty good at moving the ball down the field, as well as choking their opponents in the last third. So we expect a kicker to bring in the money and some momentum to their team.
7. Combined touchdown
There are certain players from each side that we can see scoring touchdowns, and I love the Rob Gronkowski/Marshawn Lynch bet at 2/1. Also look for running back ‘combo’ of LaGarrette Blount and Marshawn Lynch 11/4, and the double trouble of Patriots touchdown scorers of Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski - at 7/2 it’s also quite tidy.
8. Sack me if you can!
I got this stat from an ESPN podcast: the Patriots’ offensive line only gave up six sacks from Weeks 5 to 15, before injuries made for a four-sack game against the New York Jets in Week 16. They gave up two and one against Baltimore and Indianapolis, but for me, two against Baltimore is a pretty good number considering their pass rushers! The ‘Legion of Boom’ have only had three sacks all postseason themselves, so that’s hardly extraordinary numbers.
Sky Bet is once again giving good odds on it. Although I wouldn’t go anywhere near the over/under of 4.5 on sacks allowed, I like New England to sack Russell Wilson under 2.5 times at 5/6, and Seattle to sack Brady over 1.5 times.
9. MVP! MVP! MVP!
For New England it’s obvious that the hot favourite for Super Bowl MVP is star and legend Tom Brady (9/2). Seattle’s too much of a collective for anyone to shine out, unless it’s Marshawn Lynch, so I’ll go with ‘The Beast’ for Seattle (9/2). A clever outsider would be Julian Edelman at 25/1. He has enough pace to worry the Seahawks’ secondary.
10. Two silly bets...
Sky Bet is offering a bet on the coin toss! It’s 10/11 on heads… and 10/11 on tails. You’ve got a 50 per cent chance of winning. If you want some facts, five out of the last six Super Bowls have seen the coin toss come up as heads, although last year it was tails. In the last six Super Bowls the winners of the coin toss have come out winners three times. In other words, this one’s on you, folks. Don’t bet your mortgage. It could turn out like Inception.
And the other one? The length of the national anthem. The singer’s going to be Idina Menzel, the voice of ‘Frozen’ and the mesmerising musical ‘Wicked’ (which I'd highly recommend you go and see). Menzel can carry a note in stadiums too, as she proved at the 2014 MLB All-Star game. Still, the under 124.5 seconds at 10/11 seems a good bet, since the average time of the National Anthem is a smidgeon under two minutes.
11. And your winner is...
Both sides are really even. Seattle’s got the defense and the running back, New England’s got the receivers and the quarterback. New England put Indianapolis to the sword two weeks ago, while Seattle came back from the dead against the Packers. New England’s in the middle of ‘DeflateGate’, while Seattle’s got Marshawn.
I’m going for New England simply because of this: I think Brady is a better quarterback than Russell Wilson, and he’s got better receivers and an under-the-radar weapon in LeGarrette Blount. Wilson and Seattle’s offense can’t go touchdown-for-touchdown with the Pats, and everyone knows it.
New England’s a 10/11 favourite with Sky Bet, and if you think that New England will win, they are 100/30 to win by 1-6 points, which I also like.
