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Harp can be Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Star

Tokyo, JAPAN:  Japanese horse Deep Impact (L) with jockey Yutaka Take (L) wins the Japan Cup horse racing tournament at the Tokyo race course
Image: Deep Impact: Sire of Arc fancy Harp Star

Adam Houghton takes a look at the ante-post market for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and settles on Japanese raider Harp Star.

For one reason or another, those who have already played in the ante-post markets for Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe are likely to have had their fingers burnt.

Punters could be forgiven for a feeling a sense of déjà vu, as the Arc has proved to be something of an ante-post minefield in recent years. The likes of Danedream, Nathaniel, Snow Fairy and Novellist have all been forced to miss their date with destiny at the eleventh hour.

2014 has been no different. Treve, Sea The Moon and Australia have all led the market at some stage of the season, but the poor performances of some and the likely non-participation of others have seen them displaced.

Defending champion Treve (10/1) is still a likely runner on Sunday, but her performances this season make her impossible to fancy. A head defeat to Cirrus Des Aigles on her first start was no disgrace, but her last two runs would suggest that she isn’t in love with the game anymore.

She was presented with a perfectly winnable opportunity in the Prix Vermeille last time out, and although the race wasn’t run to suit her, she still didn’t show anything like the turn of foot we know she possessed last year.

The only thing in her favour is the price. 10/1 is a big price if, and it’s a big if, she can return to her 2013 form. It’s all about the playing the percentages in this game, and I’m prepared to let her slide in this instance. Nevertheless, I’ll be the first to salute her if she can return to her stunning best here.

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The current favourite with most firms is this year’s Oaks and King George winner, Taghrooda (5/1).

The Gosden filly has taken a bit of a walk in the market herself since her Ascot win, as a surprise defeat in the Yorkshire Oaks saw her price drift to as big as 10/1. For what it’s worth, that below-par run can be explained by her coming into season the next day, and the lack of a clear challenger has seen her harden again towards the top of the market.

Although she rates a worthy favourite, the form of her King George win may not be as strong as it first appeared. Telescope and Mukhadram (second and third that day) have since been put firmly in their place by Australia, and the suspicion is Taghrooda will probably need to improve on her King George form to take this stronger heat.

If she is not able to do so, the market suggests the strong-travelling Ectot (6/1) could be the one to take advantage.

Elie Lellouche’s colt made his return from five months off the track in the Prix Niel, and the speed with which he went up through the gears that day marked him out as a colt right out of the top drawer. That win over Sunday’s course and distance was his first try at the trip, and it’s difficult to say this Group One-winning juvenile didn’t see it out.

However, he didn’t seem to have that much left in reserve at the finish there having raced keenly early on, and that run will need to have taken the freshness out of him is he is to be competitive here. The form of that race doesn’t look the strongest either, and he will need to take another significant step forward if he is to emerge victorious in Europe’s most prestigious race.

The unbeaten filly Avenir Certain (7/1) doesn’t have anything to prove in terms of ability, but the question mark over her is stamina. Ectot’s jockey Gregory Benoist will be keeping a close eye on the dual Classic winner, as he overlooked her in order to ride the Prix Niel winner.

His decision has to be of concern to Avenir Certain’s backers, but she’s an uncomplicated ride and the booking of Christophe Lemaire is hardly a negative. She seems to have as much raw talent as any other runner in the race, and is entitled to be right there if she sees out this extra distance.

The next two in the betting are a pair of Japanese raiders, headed by Just A Way (7/1). The case for him is clear, as his devastating win in the Dubai Duty Free over nine furlongs is arguably the best piece of form seen in the world this year.

However, he is another runner whose stamina for the twelve furlong trip is far from assured, and horses that have shown such high class form at shorter trips are rarely as effective when stepped up. The concern is he might just be vulnerable to a stronger stayer at this mile and a half trip.

Step forward Harp Star (8/1). A Classic winner in her native Japan, the videos of her last few races are well worth a visit on YouTube. Her penultimate start requires particular attention, as she was narrowly denied on her only start over Sunday’s trip, having had in the region of 15 lengths to make up at the top of the straight.

The way she made up the ground that day suggested the distance isn’t an issue, and even in defeat, she proved she was something out of the ordinary. The concern to emerge from those runs was that she needs a long straight to show her best, which comparatively, Longchamp does not have.

However, she raced much more conventionally last time out, perhaps to prepare her for the unique test that Sunday’s race will present. She found herself in front at the top of the straight there, and held off the challenge of the enigmatic but highly talented Gold Ship (12/1), who reopposes on Sunday.

Her trainer has said she was only at 70% that day, which makes it difficult to see Gold Ship reversing that form, and Harp Star gets all the allowances here. Three-year-old fillies have a good record in this race recently, and with some doubts about the stamina of those ahead of her in the market, I’d much rather have a guaranteed stayer on my side.

Others to fit that category include the St Leger winner Kingston Hill (16/1) and 2013 Derby hero Ruler Of The World (16/1). The first-named probably won’t have the speed to win this on the likely good ground, but Ruler Of The World could improve on last year’s seventh to chase home Harp Star and Taghrooda.

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