Your Best Bet
Sky Bet's Jamie Casey picks out the best odds on this weekend's football, boxing and F1
By Jamie Casey - Twitter: @skyjamiecasey. Last Updated: 24/05/13 4:58pm
Saturday promises to be one of the biggest days on the 2013 sporting calendar, with this week's Your Best Bet offering tips on the Champions League final, Carl Froch against Mikkel Kessler and qualifying for the Monaco GP.
Champions League final
Despite dominating domestically, Bayern Munich have only beaten Dortmund twice in their four attempts this term and on both occasions the winning margin was exactly one goal, which they're 11/4 to replicate in the final.
However, if 1997 winners Dortmund are to upset the odds, they're likely to need a clean sheet, and there's been no shortage of punts on the underdogs to win to nil at a tempting 15/2, but they're 17/2 to win with under 2.5 goals in the match, perhaps a better option.
Not since Milan and Juventus in 2003 has there been a goalless draw in the Champions League final, making 0-0 a 14/1 long shot I'd advise you to avoid, although all but one of the last five have gone under 2.5 goals (11/10) in 90 minutes. Expect Saturday night's Wembley meeting to be as tense as ever, with another low-scoring final a likelihood.
Favourites Bayern, bidding for their fifth European Cup which would see them keep the current trophy, topped the Bundesliga table with 91 points and a goal difference of +80 having conceded just 18 times - only seven of which were away from home - making them to win to nil the wisest option at 9/4.
Froch v Kessler II
If IBF champion Carl Froch, who is bidding to unify the super-middleweight division against WBA king Mikkel Kessler on Saturday night, can impose himself on his opponent on a consistent basis, then he stands an excellent chance of winning on points, which has a very real chance of coming in at 11/8.
With two of the most durable chins in boxing on display, neither fighter to be knocked down should not be passed up at 8/11, though the height of occasion may play on their minds when inside the ring, with both fighters to hit the canvas a 14/1 shout.
The heavily-tattooed Kessler has 48 professional fights on his record to Froch's 32, despite being a year younger, so expect Froch to produce an array of body shots in a bid to wear the Dane's battered body down, with the 'Viking Warrior' 5/2 to be dropped.
Certainly, the first three rounds will be crucial and could set the tone for the night, as either fighter to win before the fourth isn't expected to come in at 15/2, while Froch to win in the 10th round (28/1) has proved the most popular value choice of in the round betting.
Many will recall the brutal 12th round between the pair in Denmark, in which both were bruised, bloodied and rocked, and either fighter to win in the final three-minutes is another excellent value punt at 20/1, but Froch, with the home advantage behind him, to win on points is a more logical outcome.
Despite out-performing his team-mate in the last two qualifiers, Nico Rosberg is priced longer than Lewis Hamilton - the favourite for pole position - to be quickest on Saturday, with Mercedes expected to dominate qualifying.
They're 4/5 to be on pole as Hamilton is 9/4 to front the grid compared to Rosberg at 3/1, the same price as Sebastian Vettel, while Ferrari's Fernando Alonso is an outsider at 6/1 for pole position.
However, Pirelli are unable to introduce improved tyre compounds until Montreal next month, so Mercedes are deemed likely to fall short on race day once again, regardless of the lack of room for manoeuvre on the streets of Monaco, so avoid backing them to get their first win of the season on Sunday.
Alonso and Vettel are joint-favourites on race day at 11/4, with Hamilton (5/1) priced marginally shorter than Rosberg, but Kimi Raikkonen, who won here in 2005, has proved one of the most popular bets to win the race at 7/1. Go with Kimi on race day if he out-qualifies Alonso on Saturday, but Mercedes to be on pole is the weekend's banker.
Odds are subject to change