Home in on United
Dave Tindall, who racked up yet more football profits last week, looks at the markets and picks out the best punts of the weekend
By Dave Tindall. Last Updated: February 9, 2012 1:33pm
Sir Alex Ferguson can gain revenge on Kenny Dalglish for the recent FA Cup defeat
Liverpool are generally regarded as having one of the best away records in the Premier League and six victories is certainly impressive (only one team has more). But it's also worth noting that they've lost five on the road and that's the same as second-bottom Blackburn. And when you consider that Manchester United have won 27 of their last 31 Premier League games at Old Trafford over the last two seasons and suddenly the home win at 4/5 looks far more attractive than on first glance. Sir Alex Ferguson will also have revenge in mind. Since Liverpool thumped United 4-1 at Old Trafford in March 2009, United have won the last three meetings in Manchester and they'll also want to atone for their recent 2-1 FA Cup defeat at Anfield. Luis Suarez is sure to get a hugely hostile reception so punters may be drawn to the 6/4 about him picking up a yellow card. He's 2/1 to find the net but better value in that market could lie with strike partner Andy Carroll at 11/4. Four of the big striker's five Liverpool goals this season have come on the road and he netted in the Merseysiders' last away game at Wolves. Add in the fact that United goalkeeper David de Gea looks vulnerable from crosses and a much stronger looking Carroll could outmuscle him at a set-piece. Sky Bet make Carroll a 4/1 outsider to go to Euro 2012 so the ex-Newcastle frontman needs to start catching the eye of England's next manager and what better way to do that than with a goal at Old Trafford. However, a Carroll goal may have to be a consolation for the visitors and I'm going to back United to continue their superb home league form with correct scoreline bets on 2-1 (15/2) and 3-1 (12/1).
Two huge football stories collided in midweek with the upshot being Harry Redknapp ending the day as a massive favourite to get the England job. First, Redknapp was cleared of tax evasion, prompting Sky Bet to cut his odds about one day replacing Fabio Capello to 4/9 from 5/2. Then, lo and behold, Capello resigned later that day leading Sky Bet to cut Redknapp again to just 2/7. Certainly Capello quitting came as a surprise as, soon after Redknapp was cleared, Sky Bet were still quoting the Italian as a red-hot 1/7 chance to still be in charge of England at Euro 2012. Those who took the 4/1 that he wouldn't enjoyed a healthy payout. Explaining the huge shake-up in the market, Sky Bet PR Director Dale Tempest said: "Now Capello has resigned it leaves the door open for Redknapp to get the job he has always coveted and he seems to be the man England fans want as manager." England Under-21 boss Stuart Pearce is second favourite behind Redknapp at 5/1 while former Russia and Chelsea boss Guus Hiddink is 7/1 (from 20/1) to take the post after he expressed an interest in replacing Capello. The big question, of course, is whether Redknapp has a better chance of leading England to glory than Capello. The punters certainly think so and Sky Bet immediately took evasive action by trimming England's odds to win Euro 2012 to 15/2 from 8/1. Should Redknapp get the England job on a full-time basis, that would leave a vacancy at Spurs and Sky Bet make Jose Mourinho the 2/1 favourite to fill it ahead of 5/1 David Moyes and 6/1 Carlo Ancelotti. In fact, check out the various next manager markets and Mourinho's name is at the front of the betting of most! 'The Special One' is 2/1 favourite to take over from Sir Alex Ferguson at Manchester United, 9/4 market leader in the next Manchester City boss betting and 9/2 second favourite (behind 4/1 Martin O'Neill) to take over from Kenny Dalglish at Liverpool.
Wales were the big movers in the 6 Nations outright betting after their dramatic and controversial 23-21 victory in Ireland and Sky Bet responded by slashing them from 10/3 to 6/4 joint favourites with France. The Welsh now have an ideal chance to make it two wins out of two when they host Scotland on Sunday and the men in red are just 1/8 to seal victory. The Irish hope to bounce back against France and are certainly not without hope. If you fancy Ireland they're 3/1 to pull off victory while they're getting nine points on the handicap. As for England, they're out to 5/1 to win the tournament despite their opening win over Scotland. An away trip to Italy represents a real banana skin and if you fancy England to slip up, Sky Bet are offering 3/1 about the Italians. I can see this being a real battle of attrition with a lack of tries and the scoreboard moving in threes. If that pans out and it is just a case of the two teams trading penalties it brings the draw into play. So back the half-time draw at 12/1 and also the full-time draw at 20s
Dave's tips
* Man Utd to beat Liverpool 2-1 at 15/2
* Man Utd to beat Liverpool 3-1 at 12/1
* Andy Carroll to score v Man Utd at 11/4
* Italy v England to be draw at HT at 12/1
* Italy v England to be draw at FT at 20/1
Recent winning tips:
Juan Mata to score v Man Utd at 11/4
Over 2.5 goals in Chelsea v Man Utd at 5/6
Norwich to beat West Brom at 3/1
Crawley to beat Hull at 10/3
Draw/Man City HT/FT double result v Spurs at 7/2
Man Utd to beat Arsenal 2-1 at 17/2
* All prices are with Sky Bet. Register now and get a free £10 bet.
