Alex Hammond
Racing Expert & Columnist
Alex Hammond previews the Racing Post Trophy
Last Updated: 24/10/14 10:07am
Alex Hammond previews the feature races on a big weekend of racing in her latest blog...
What’s going on with the weather? It’s almost November and barring the tail end of a hurricane, it’s been unseasonably mild, but it’s also been pretty wet.
That means we are likely to get softish ground at Doncaster for the Racing Post Trophy on Saturday, although that’s nothing new. The race was won by subsequent classic winner Kingston Hill, last year and juveniles have been declared for this year’s renewal.
Followers of this blog will know I’ve been a huge fan of Elm Park from the very beginning and he hasn’t done anything to disappoint me yet. He won the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Newmarket last time out and comes into this with the strongest form.
Followers of this blog will know I’ve been a huge fan of Elm Park from the very beginning and he hasn’t done anything to disappoint me yet. He won the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Newmarket last time out and comes into this with the strongest form.
Alex Hammond
I fancied him when he won his maiden at Newbury and it was telling that David Probert struggled to pull him up there. He has progressed since then into Listed grade before that latest success that saw him overcome a couple of stumbles, but still win nicely. He’s a big out-and-out galloper and conditions on Town Moor will suit him well. The rain that is forecast on Friday will be welcome as he excels with ease underfoot. Qatar Racing bought into him after his win at Salisbury and he looks a superb prospect next season.
Aidan O’Brien has won this three times in the last five years and runs Jacobean and Aloft in a bid to win it again. Jacobean will be partnered by Colm O’Donoghue. The colt comes here with just the one run under his belt and he’s a maiden. He was second on debut at the Curragh in a 7 furlong maiden on yielding ground, a race in which he was slowly away and then hung in the closing stages showing understandable greenness. He has the usual Coolmore plethora of top entries, but wasn’t first choice for this race from the Ballydoyle stable. The horse that beat him at the Curragh, Royal Navy Ship, was antepost favourite, but now misses the Doncaster Group 1.
Aloft comes here off the back of a win in a decent Newmarket Maiden. He still looked green there and is the type to do well in his classic season.
Celestial Path is a leading contender for Sir Mark Prescott and Luke Morris. He must have shown plenty at home in the early days for connections to take this path with him, rather than preparing him to win a sequence of handicaps! He is two from two so far, with wins in a York maiden and then a listed race at Haydock. Mind you, he won at 16/1 on debut so it may have come of something of a surprise. He still looks like a big baby and will still be improving. The worry for his supporters is the forecast rain on ground already described as good to soft as he wouldn’t want too much dig in the surface.
Connections of the William Muir-trained Restorer have supplemented him for the race. He’s well regarded by his trainer and has progressed in his three runs. He was second in a Group 3 at Newmarket last time out at a big price and he will enjoy the ground on Saturday. The result of this race is bound to have a bearing on next year’s Derby for which Elm Park is currently 25/1 with Sky Bet and he’s my selection in the final big race of the domestic flat season.
Betfred Monet’s Garden Old Roan Chase
I absolutely love this time of year as the jump season starts to get going and there are decent cards at Aintree and Chepstow this weekend. At Aintree the Betfred Monet’s Garden Old Roan Chase is the feature. It’s potentially a cracking race despite the fact Dynaste bypasses it to wait for the Betfair Chase at Haydock. That means that Module now heads the weight in this Limited Handicap and is also one of the market leaders.
Kauto Stone has also been denied the opportunity to run for new trainer Ben Pauling as he has sustained a knock at home. So, Module is now rated 164, which makes life tougher for this grand chaser. He was unlucky not to win the Haldon Gold Cup off 152 last season but has risen up the weights after good efforts there and in other Graded races last winter.
There are few stables in better form than Alan King’s and he has Uxizandre in the line up. He was a very smart novice chaser last season who finished second at the Cheltenham festival in the JLT before winning the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase over this course and distance. He needs to go left handed and has won on his seasonal reappearance before.
Nicky Henderson’s Rajdhani Express was beaten favourite in the Melling Chase last term (won by Boston Bob). He ran well in the Ryanair prior to that effort though and it’s conceivable at the age of seven there could be more to come. Henderson has been amongst the winners of late. Unlike a couple of his rivals though, he has tended to need his first run back.
Last year’s winner Conquisto is amongst the entries too for trainer Steve Gollings. He runs off a 4lbs lower mark than 12 months ago as his form tailed off after that win. He had the assistance of McCoy in this last year, which he won’t have this time round and he hasn’t been the easiest horse to train. He is well handicapped if he can recapture his best form. Paul Nicholls has admitted his string are taking a bit longer than usual to get going this season and he thinks some of his horses are needing their first runs.
Well, his Rolling Aces hasn’t run since April, but that doesn’t worry me too much as he’s a horse that has won a couple of times on his first run back and he may be one of the easier ones to get fit. He ran well to be second in the Grade 1 Melling Chase behind Boston Bob back in April and will appreciate the decent ground they have at Aintree (it was good at the time of writing). He has had breathing issues in the past and horses with those restrictions tend not to excel on really soft ground. He’s consistent and won on his seasonal debut last season in a grade 2 at Down Royal. I like his chance here.
Mr Moonshine could run well at a bigger price. Sue Smith’s 10-year-old ran creditably over hurdles earlier this month which should have knocked the rust off him. He ran well in the National in April, not staying the trip. He won’t be getting better with age mind you and has a mark of 148 to overcome.
Cedre Bleu has his first start for Charlie Mann having left Paul Nicholls. Mann bought him at the Doncaster Sales in May for £41,000 and he may have been perked up by the change of scenery. He’s only 7 and no back number although he hasn’t looked the most resolute in the past. Whilst Uxizandre looks the obvious choice I think it might be worth taking a chance on Rolling Aces for Paul Nicholls.
The Cox Plate
Early on Saturday morning the Cox Plate takes place at Mooney Valley in Australia. I think it could be a fantastic weekend for Andrew Balding. He runs Side Glance in this and his seven-year-old is the ultimate globe trotter. He has run 13 times internationally and that has resulted in one grade 1 win, in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington in November, and top four finishes on 8 other occasions. That has taken his win and place prize money to more than £1.6m.
The locally-trained Fawkner and Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide are obviously leading contenders, but Side Glance has every chance of finishing in the places given his form and at 18/1 with Sky Bet looks a fair each way bet. I fancied him in this race last year when he was a 40/1 shot and he ran a bit too keenly, but wasn’t disgraced. It was said this week that he was the ‘forgotten horse’ in this race, but I haven’t forgotten about him!
Last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner recorded a smart win in the Caulfield Stakes last time out and that is strong form coming into this mile and a quarter group 1; Side Glance was third there.
Adelaide will be ridden by Ryan Moore for O’Brien, the pair have teamed up to good effect on their travels of late. They won the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington back in August and then were third in the Prix Niel last time out when meeting trouble in running behind Ectot. He hasn’t been helped by the draw on Saturday though and will have to overcome almost the widest draw in 13 and takes on older horses for the first time this season.
Side Glance on the other hand will come out of gate seven, which has been the most successful stall position in the race’s history. Fawkner is well drawn in four.
Sacred Falls is also drawn well in five and comes here with every chance, he’s one of the best horses in training over this trip in Australia. I’m sticking with my old mate Side Glance though to finish in the top three.
Selections
Elm Park in the Racing Post Trophy @ 7/4 with Sky Bet
Rolling Aces in the Old Roan Chase @ 8/1 with Sky Bet
Side Glance in the Cox Place @ 18/1 with Sky Bet (each way)