Video Form guide: Prix de l'Abbaye at Longchamp
By Adam Houghton
Last Updated: 02/10/14 2:41pm
Adam Houghton revisits the Video Form archives in a bid to identify the best bet in Sunday's Prix de l'Abbaye at Longchamp.
Although the relatively new sprint on Qipco British Champions Day threatens to steal the honour, for now the Prix de l’Abbaye remains the final piece of the Group One puzzle for sprinters in Europe. The picture is quite clear with almost a full season of sprinting action behind us, but it makes an in-depth study of all the relevant races from this year no easy task.
However, that’s the job at hand here, and we start our video analysis with a look at the Temple Stakes, in which Hot Streak saw off the challenge of Pearl Secret.
That pair were defeated by Sole Power in the King’s Stand, and he has been one of the dominant performers in the division this year. The current favourite for Sunday’s race, his Nunthorpe win is also worth another look, as is his defeat over a furlong further in the Sprint Cup.
It would be wrong to overlook the Beverley Bullet in this feature, while the form of the King George at Goodwood will also be well-represented. The fourth that day, Stepper Point, has since registered a first Group win in the Flying Five at the Curragh.
It would also be foolish to dismiss the two-year-old form with all the allowances they get in the Prix de l'Abbaye, and Cotai Glory was supplemented for the race on Thursday. For that reason, his Flying Childers run simply has to be revisited, unless of course you are George Baker.
With so many key races to get through, Adam Houghton revisits the Video Form archives in a bid to solve Sunday’s five-furlong dash at Longchamp.
Temple Stakes, Haydock, 5f – May 24
1. Hot Streak 9/4
2. Pearl Secret 10/3
4. Justice Day
6. Justineo
7. Mirza
It’s been some four months since Hot Streak announced himself on the sprinting scene in this Group Two heat and the manner of his victory led Kevin Ryan to describe him as the best horse he’s ever trained. He showed blistering pace to share the early lead with Justineo, and continued to grind his rivals into submission with his relentless running style. These were probably his optimum conditions, five furlongs with a bit of ease underfoot, and Sunday’s race is likely to present a similar set of circumstances. Although the ground doesn’t look like being quite as soft as here, it’s unlikely to be like a road either, and a track that favours those on the speed could also be a blessing for him. Pearl Secret deserves credit for his run, as he was the only runner to make any significant inroads into the winner’s lead. Held up in mid-division, he was delivered with a determined challenge on the far rail and was only half a length behind the impressive winner at the line. He is another who probably had his preferred conditions on this occasion, but the same cannot be said of Mirza. He probably paid the price for trying to keep up with Hot Streak in the early stages, a comment that also applies to Justineo, while Justice Day had form on softer ground, and ran as well as could have been expected in such a tough heat.
King’s Stand Stakes, Royal Ascot, 5f – June 17
1. Sole Power 5/1
2. Stepper Point 50/1
3. Hot Streak 3/1
6. Steps 12/1
8. Take Cover 50/1
10. Pearl Secret 8/1
13. Justice Day 66/1
16. Guerre 8/1
Clearly a key contest to revisit, this form looks likely to be well-represented on Sunday. Sole Power again showed his liking for the straight course at Ascot, taking his record to two wins and a third from four starts in this Group One event. Given a typically patient ride by Richard Hughes, he had to go around the whole field in order to get a run, and was asked to go and win his race just before the furlong marker. He still had the best part of five lengths to make up at that stage, but showed his supreme turn of foot to deny Stepper Point and Hot Streak by an easy length. As Paddy Power, the son of the winning owner, put it: "Sole Power has one 150-yard burst of speed when the others are slowing down." Perhaps the stiff finish at Ascot explains why Sole Power is so deadly there, while the pair that followed him home, along with Take Cover, were always likely to struggle having been up with the pace all the way. However, Sunday’s race will present a different challenge. Richard Hughes may be forced to make his move a bit earlier, with the pace likely to last out a bit longer on Longchamp’s speedier track. The others should have a better chance on that basis, and Pearl Secret will enjoy the slightly easier ground than he encountered here. Steps didn't seem to have any exuses, and probably isn't quite up to this level, while the three-year-olds Justice Day and Guerre seemed to find this too much too soon.
King George Stakes, Goodwood, 5f – August 1
1. Take Cover 6/1
3. Moviesta 9/2
4. Stepper Point 12/1
5. G Force 7/1
6. Hamza 10/1
Take Cover has been a revelation this season, and he was able to reverse the King’s Stand form with Stepper Point here. He was entitled to improve on that Ascot form, with it being his first run of the year, and he has since taken a Listed race at York. He again showed dazzling early speed to track the leader, and despite drifting towards the far rail, he was able to hang on to win by a neck. This front-runner is always going to be at his best on a quick track and with that in mind, Longchamp should be right up his street. Moviesta had been disappointing in the July Cup on his previous start, but showed a similar level of form to his 2013 win in this race here. He perhaps wasn’t suited by racing away from the main action in the final furlong, a comment that also applies to Stepper Point. He raced in isolation on the near rail from the start, and ran a creditable race in the circumstances. He was followed home by G Force, who was bumped by the retreating Hamza when trying to quicken. The run hardly suggested he was a big-race winner waiting to happen, but all that was to change in the weeks that followed.
Nunthorpe Stakes, York, 5f – August 22
1. Sole Power 11/4
2. Stepper Point 20/1
4. Moviesta 11/1
5. Hot Streak 8/1
6. G Force 12/1
7. Rangali 8/1
8. Take Cover 8/1
13. Steps 20/1
This event could hold the key to Sunday’s contest, with six of the first eight home looking likely to lock horns again in the Longchamp dash, even if G Force is now unlikely to take part. The one to lead them home on this occasion was, as ever, Sole Power. There had been concerns about the favourite’s health in the weeks before the race, with a bout of ringworm apparently putting him on the easy list. However, such fears proved wide of the mark on the day, as Richard Hughes produced his mount to mug the admirable Stepper Point for a second time this season. He may have a habit of making it seem easy, but Hughes’ job looked far from that with a furlong to run, as not one but two gaps closed in front of him. However, Sole Power showcased his trademark burst once the space appeared, and again you got the impression he won with a bit to spare. Although he would have gone down as an unlucky loser, you had to feel for the runner-up. Having been up with the pace from the outset, he fought off every other challenger before being caught in the shadow of the post, and gained a deserved first win at Group level on his next start (see Flying Five). Moviesta built on his Goodwood performance with a solid fourth, while a trio of three-year-olds followed him home. Hot Streak ran a fair race without really living up to the promise of his Haydock win, while the French raider Rangali was disappointing two places further back. He can do better back on home soil, but the one to take out of the race was the meat in that sandwich, G Force. He didn’t have much luck in running here, but was only beaten a length at the death. It’s easy to say with hindsight, but he gave the impression he had more to offer at this level, and confirmed that on his next start (see Sprint Cup). Take Cover probably went off too fast in this more competitive affair, while Steps was always in rear and struggled to get involved at the business end.
Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes, Beverley, 5f – August 30
1. Pearl Secret 2/1
2. Mirza 8/1
The form of this race is a long way off the required standard in the context of Sunday’s heat, but it’s worth another look with the first two home set to take their chance again. It was a surprise to see Pearl Secret run here, with the ground quicker than he would like, but a change of tactics saw him get back to winning ways. Jamie Spencer decided to make the running on him here, and still led on the bridle approaching the furlong marker. The horse responded gamely for pressure having been challenged by Mirza on the run to the line, and he can only improve given more cut in the ground. The runner-up ran his best race in Britain for some time here. He seems to save his best form for his trips across the channel these days, and his subsequent win in a Group Three over the course and distance of Sunday’s race demonstrated that perfectly. Both will be well suited by the demands of this weekend’s test.
Sprint Cup, Haydock, 6f – September 6
1. G Force 11/1
4. Sole Power 5/2
5. Pearl Secret 33/1
10. Maarek 25/1
16. Hot Streak 20/1
17. Moviesta 25/1
Sole Power was sent off favourite to claim a clean sweep of the Group One sprints in Britain for his connections, but had been beaten on all of his previous seven starts over this six furlong trip. That became eight here, as G Force established himself as a sprinter to be reckoned with. Settled towards the rear of a big field, he came with a powerful last burst to deny the previous year’s winner, Gordon Lord Byron. He seemed to improve for the step up to six furlongs here and Sunday’s race presents a much more severe test of speed. Unless the ground turns soft, he looks likely to miss the race, with the Qipco British Champions Sprint an alternative target. That seems a logical decision, as most modern sprinters seem to have a preference for one trip or the other. Sole Power is a prime example, although he didn’t disgrace himself in fourth here. He was held up at the back of the field as per usual, and Richard Hughes was still sat pretty with two furlongs to go. He came home with his typical gusto, but he probably found the ground a bit slower than ideal, and should be more at home back at the minimum trip on Sunday. Pearl Secret ran on quite well from mid-division, and his overall profile suggests he’s another horse that is better over five, while Maarek can be forgiven this effort having totally blown the start. He can run well in the defence of the Abbaye crown he won in 2013, although this weekend’s race looks to be a stronger renewal. Hot Streak and Moviesta were both hugely disappointing at the tail-end of the field. Maybe the race came too soon after hard races at York, but both now have something to prove.
Flying Childers Stakes, Doncaster, 5f – September 12
U/R. Cotai Glory 6/1
An interesting addition to this video guide, the form of Molecomb winner Cotai Glory has been blemished by his antics here. Having led from the moment the stalls opened, he showed his rivals a clean pair of heels and looked set to record a decisive victory in this Group Two event for juveniles. However, a severe jink, with just less than half a furlong to run, left jockey George Baker with little chance of maintaining the partnership. It’s definitely worth another watch here, but the overriding impression is that this is a highly-talented colt, and he could be dangerous to dismiss on Sunday. The worry is he could be dangerous to ride, too.
Flying Five Stakes, Curragh, 5f – September 14
1. Stepper Point 9/4
2. Sir Maximilian 7/1
8. Guerre 13/2
A richly-deserved prize for the winner, Stepper Point never really looked in danger of defeat with no Sole Power to worry about. Hard against the stands’ side rail seems to have been the place to be in sprints at the Curragh this year, and having bounced out alertly from the stalls, Martin Dwyer didn’t need a second invitation to bag that position here. He took them along at a decent clip, but while Stepper Point was still travelling strongly at the two furlong marker, all of his rivals were hard at work in behind. He found more when asked to go and win his race, and all in all it was a thoroughly likeable display. You could have set your clock by him in the big sprints this year, and his straightforward running style means he can be relied upon to run his race on Sunday. The progressive Sir Maximilian was one of the first off the bridle here, but finished best of all to take second. He seems to be getting better with every run this year, but it’s difficult to see him reversing the form with Stepper Point. The same can also be said of the held-up Guerre, although, he didn't get the clearest of runs on this occasion.
CONCLUSION
A tricky conundrum, with Sole Power a clear pick on form, but the question is whether the conditions of Sunday’s contest will play to his strengths. He is a horse that needs the leaders to come back to him, not to mention luck in running, and it is impossible to guarantee either of those in Sunday’s contest. He is yet to win this race in three previous attempts, and with the short prices currently on offer, it’s worth taking him on in his bid to make it fourth time lucky. G Force would have to be feared if allowed to take his chance, but it's difficult to reach any firm conclusions until the final field and the draw have been announced. The draw is all important on Longchamp's sprint course, and ideally you want a horse that is drawn low and races prominently. We do not know the draw yet, but we can be sure STEPPER POINT and Cotai Glory won’t be too far away in the early stages. That is probably the only similarity they share, as one is a thoroughly professional five-year-old gelding, and the other a two-year-old colt who has already shown himself to be something of a playboy. Therefore, the first-named rates a safer betting proposition, and 8/1 seems a fair price for this highly-likeable performer. However, preference between the pair might well be reversed should Cotai Glory be handed a more favourable draw at the final declaration stage on Friday.