GC at the BC: Saturday picks
By Graham Cunningham
Last Updated: 31/10/14 11:50pm
The weather forecast doesn’t promise sunshine this year, but some things can be guaranteed on Breeders’ Cup Saturday at Santa Anita.
The crowds will descend on Arcadia soon after breakfast; the drama will be unrelenting in a six-hour showpiece; some jockeys will be hailed as heroes while others are slaughtered; and the inquest will be lengthy and forensic if the Euros fail to fire.
Predicting the winners and losers is the tricky bit, but C4 and RUK analyst Graham Cunningham has been on site all week and runs down all the action in the final part of his BC blog.
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7.05pm: BC Juvenile Fillies
Can Angela Renee confirm course form in the Chandelier Stakes with Conquest Eclipse and Danette?
And can By The Moon confirm her form in the slop with Wonder Gal and Feathered from the Frizette at Belmont?
Yes and yes are the probable answers when you study the replays.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYyF0mu8jfk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHilUU3sYXM
This is a fair way from being the best betting race on the card but Angela Renee looks the pick of the market leaders with Top Decile a likely longshot based on her strong-finishing second in the Alcibiades at Keeneland.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRXdrPNfArk
7.43pm: BC Filly & Mare Turf
Dank bids to repeat last year’s success but she hardly had an ounce to spare in an ordinary renewal twelve months ago and it’s hard to recommend taking 2-1 given that she hasn’t been since a dull Royal Ascot defeat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_cmhLpcmOY
Several of the main dangers are fellow Euros and the durable strong traveller Fiesolana can outrun long odds if she comes back to the form she showed to land Leopardstown’s Matron Stakes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtFx5QKktDI
But Stephanie’s Kitten gets the main vote here.
Traffic could be an issue from a wide draw, especially if the early pace is tepid, but Chad Brown’s mare is a proven BC winner who lines up in top form after quickening smartly in Belmont’s Flower Bowl Stakes. It’s a tough race but 11-2 looks solid each way value.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87Cd85q__sg
8.21pm: BC Filly & Mare Sprint
American female sprinters are a long way from being my specialist subject and this looks the right slot to take a time out. Lovely.
9.05pm: BC Turf Sprint
The Turf Sprint is always a great spectacle but not that doesn’t mean it’s an essential betting contest.
Course form has been a big plus over the years and that’s a concern for Wesley Ward’s pair No Nay Never and Undrafted as neither has ever raced at Santa Anita.
I doubt Caspar Netscher can write another chapter in his colourful story, but Reneesgotzip looks more than capable of going close.
She showed tremendous pace until worn down close home on this day last year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NL5Znu8x3Y
And her runaway win at Del Mar last month ought to set her up perfectly for another bold effort.
9.43: BC Juvenile
American Pharoah’s absence leaves the door open and Todd Pletcher could be the one to take advantage with one or both of two strong candidates.
Carpe Diem showed an impressive blend of pace and power to run away with the Keeneland Futurity.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdmZMKv40fQ
But stablemate Daredevil was every bit as striking in the Champagne at Belmont, sauntering clear of the smart Upstart in the style of a top class colt.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LePRjxEP6Qc
Expect the trailblazing Souper Colossal to force a punishing gallop here. That could pose major problems for sole Euro raider The Great War, but it could bring out the very best in Daredevil and 3-1 looks tempting.
10.22: BC Turf
If the quirky Main Sequence wins I lose.
If the even quirkier Chicquita wins I lose more.
And if Brown Panther can outrun this deep posse I’ll be very surprised indeed.
The Panther looks likely to make this a strong stamina test and we could end up in a relay situation with Telescope taking up the baton off the home turn in a bid to draw the sting from the Arc runner-up Flintshire.
In truth, I’ve been finding it tough to split Telescope and Flintshire all week.
Punters are wrangling with the same problem, but Telescope has created a slightly better impression in the mornings this week.
His Hardwicke romp was eyecatching.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kN9XNWUhm4g&spfreload=1
His King George second was another fine effort and the return to twelve furlongs and the presence of Moore in the irons earns him a narrow vote to give Sir Stoute his fifth success in the race.
11.01pm: BC Sprint
Another blazing spectacle and, with a posse of horses looking very closely matched, tactics and jockeyship could play a huge part.
I certainly won’t be swinging too hard financially but Rich Tapestry and Fast Anna both earn a positive mention.
Hong Kong raider Rich Tapestry s showed he’s handled the switch to California in great style by pipping the high-class Goldencents here recently and his powerful finish will be a big asset if he can tag onto the leaders early.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJ8-HypIBj0
Logic suggests Fast Anna is bound to be one of those leaders and Kathy Ritvo’s colt can run much better than his 20-1 quote suggests.
11.40pm: BC Mile
This looks a case of whether you are a purist or punter.
The purist in me would love to see Toronado win for Hannon and Hughes.
But the punter in me wants a bigger price than 9-4 and Mustajeeb and Seek Again look value alternatives in a race that could prove much more open than the market suggests.
Mustajeeb appeals in the belief that he remains open to improvement on the form he showed in Royal Ascot’s Jersey Stakes.
The certainty of a fast pace set by local hero Obviously should suit him, while Seek Again isn’t ideally drawn but has looked very good more than once this season despite not having the best of luck in running.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsAjLXg1N-I
12.35pm: BC Classic
A Classic well worth the name and everyone has their own idea of the way the script will play out.
Here’s mine. Bayern and Moreno will set punishing fractions and set things up for the stalking crew.
The unbeaten Shared Belief will come calling off the final bend; California Chrome might well revive if the vibes about his recent work prove correct; and who knows what to expect from Toast of New York on his dirt debut?
But Tonalist has been my fancy for this year’s Classic for some while and I’m in no mood to desert him as he leaves New York for California.
This colt looked a high-class grinder fitted with blinkers in the Belmont and a high-class glider when the headgear was binned in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dir83c_nLM
He was the first horse I backed for this year’s BC when I went in each way at 8-1 two weeks ago. The 6-1 available still looks more than fair. And I might just wet my beak again if the earlier results have worked out well.
Thanks for reading.