King George winner joint top rated on Timeform heading into Arc
Last Updated: 05/10/13 8:55am
Novellist: Joint top rated with Timeform going into the Arc
Timeform ratings suggest favourite Orfevre faces a tougher task than the betting suggests in Sunday's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
Last year's runner-up is a general 5/2 chance for the Longchamp showpiece but a weight-adjusted rating of 139 leaves him with two pounds to find with the top-rated Novellist and Treve.
Timeform's Flat Editor David Johnson said: "Orfevre was one of the most unfortunate losers in the history of the race last year, when he grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory by hanging in the closing stages, but he'll need to be better again this time around in what looks a stronger race.
"Novellist looked every inch a potential Arc winner when landing the King George by five lengths at Ascot and confirmed his well-being with a comfortable success at Baden-Baden on his return last month.
Johnson believes that Treve, ridden by Thierry Jarnet in the absence of Frankie Dettori, has to be a major player.
"Fillies have won three of the last five Arcs, and Treve boasts a very similar profile to 2008 winner Zarkava, having again showed a good turn of foot to come from a long way back when maintaining her unbeaten record in the Vermeille last time," he reasoned.
On Timeform ratings the three-year-old fillies hold a stronger hand than their colt counterparts going into this year's race.
"The Niel was the most significant trial for the 3-y-o colts, with little between the Japanese-trained Kizuna and Derby winner Ruler of The World. Both came from a long way back and were better than the result that day but still have something to find," Johnson added.