Michael Shinners looks at the Arc betting market after the trials
Last Updated: September 16, 2013 4:22pm
Solemia denies Orfevre in last year's Arc - does compensation await?
The Arc trials on Sunday told us plenty, but still left plenty of questions unanswered.
Orfevre - 7/2:
Last year's second Orfevre heads the market after being an impressive winner of the Prix Foy, winning easily by three lengths. The race didn't appear as competitive as the other two trials and with a slow time being posted there are still slight doubts as to whether an improver could once again get the better of him. However, he has the best form on offer and deserves to be the current favourite.
Treve - 4/1:
Treve is still unbeaten after four races and won the Prix Vermeille in decent fashion. A filly has not won the Arc since Zarkava and we are happy to lay a bit of her, as we feel that she still has plenty to prove. The Frankie Dettori factor could well play a part in her price and I have a feeling that she could be over-bet.
Novellist - 11/2:
Novellist was incredibly impressive when he won the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes by five lengths. The race proved his versatility in terms of the ground and also showed he has the class to win a Group One. The main worry is the value of that form. The second, Trading Leather has been beaten since and Cirrus Des Aigles simply appears to be not as good as he was.
Kizuna - 7/1:
The horse that impressed me most over the weekend was Kizuna who won the Prix Niel by a short head from Ruler Of The World. As a three-year-old he is almost certainly still improving, but the way he travelled and showed great determination suggests he is a major challenger. The comments made after the race from connections suggested that he needed the run and would come on for the race and if this is the case he has a great chance.
The remainder of the runners are slightly harder to make cases for, although Ruler Of The World ran much better and could easily be in the shake up. If Ryan Moore takes the ride he is sure to be popular and I would expect him to be one of our worst results. The disappointment of the Niel was Flintshire who was unable to pick up and show his turn of foot in the softer ground. He is another we would be happy to take on unless the ground turned quicker. Interestingly, Intello could yet emerge as the number one Andre Fabre contender when he lines up this weekend in the Prix du Prince d'Orange.