More excitement to come
Last Updated: 22/10/14 9:38am
With the jumps action moving up a gear, we talk to Timeform NH handicapper Phil Turner, one of the authors of the Halifax firm's celebrated Chasers & Hurdlers annual, about the biggest achievers of last season and those with the greatest potential to take star billing over the months ahead.
Timeform's distinguised team of racing writers tend not to be shy when it comes to offering some firm opinions and this year's edition of Chasers and Hurdlers is no exception to the rule.
Among the thornier issues examined is the saga involving the British Horseracing Authority's senior medical advisor Dr Michael Turner and his departure from the sport as part of the fall-out involving the injury of Davy Russell at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival.
A robust defence of the need to protect the world's most famous jumps race is also offered, with the view being expressed that public affection for the Crabbie's Grand National should not be taken for granted and that Pineau De Re made mistakes en-route to victory "which he would almost certainly not have got away with at Aintree in the past".
There's also a not-so-gentle dig or two at the British Horseracing Authority, who they believe have failed in their role as regulators "to reassure followers of the sport that the game is ‘clean'" before warning of potential consequences on betting turnover if punters cannot have confidence that the sport is being run fairly.
But it is to weighing up the performances of the stars of last season that we asked Phil Turner to give his particular attention and he offers us five of the headline views to take out of the book. There may be months to go before the Cheltenham Festival, but it's never too early to start taking a position!
More Of That - a potential superstar of jumps racing?
For some reason, he's a horse who I don't think has fully been the given the credit he deserves for his victory in the World Hurdle and he ended the season as our champion horse with a rating of 173p. At this stage, he doesn't have a rating to put him up with the likes of Big Buck's or Baracouda, but he definitely has potential to reach that level.
Going into the race, a lot of the talk was about Annie Power - understandably so, to some extent - but it's my belief that if she had won the race, a lot more fuss would have been made about how good she was, whereas More Of That's victory seemed to slip by a little. In fact, when you look at the race thoroughly, it was a really good World Hurdle. Horses like Celestial Halo and Reve De Sivola, who had won a Grade Two and a Grade One respectively only months earlier, finished well out with the washing. Indeed, it many respects, it was the race of the Festival.
AP McCoy obviously made the decision to go with the proven staying power of At Fisher's Cross, but we heard that the decision surprised Jonjo [O'Neill, More Of That's trainer] a little and I don't think it was a question of the horse surprising anybody. We were big fans of More Of That from an early stage and gave the horse 'a big P' after his win before that, again at Cheltenham - and it certainly wasn't a case that his World Hurdle win was a flash in the pan.
I think there was a real chance he might have gone chasing this season and I do feel a slight sense of disappointment that he hasn't. At Timeform, we always take the view that keeping a horse in training costs a lot of money and that the owner obviously has to take the decision that they feel is right for the horse - telling people what to do with their horses isn't our sort of thing. But would I personally have preferred to have seen him go down the chasing route? Yes.
There have been a lot of very talented hurdlers who don't go on to fulfil the potential it looked like they might have as steeplechasers. Names like Iris's Gift and Dorans Pride spring to mind, although to be be fair to Dorans Pride he was third in the Gold Cup and won a lot of good races as a steeplechaser. But he does look every inch a horse who is going to do even better over fences - I was even quietly hoping we might see him in the Gold Cup this season!
Sire De Grugy and the shadow of Sprinter Sacre.
Sire De Grugy was our top-rated steeplechaser of last season with a rating of 172+, but to put things into context that's no less than 20lb below Sprinter Sacre's rating.
He's clearly a top-class horse who has outperformed the expectations you might have held on the basis of his season novice chasing. In fact, holding my hands up, we probably under-rated his Sandown Celebration Chase victory of April 2013.
The frustration though, is that in the absence of Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig, it was such a weak division last season - in fact a look through the current top-rated steeplechasers in training is a bit of an injury list. Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig, Cue Card, Flemenstar, Sir Des Champs. They all missed some or all of last season and the hope must be that all of them can come back this season and show their true form again.
Will Sprinter Sacre come back as good as he was this season? We all want to think so and I'm the same as anyone - we need him to come back and light up the scene like he did in 2013/14 again. But the parallels aren't good.
One of the horses I would have to mention at the point is Flyingbolt, who produced two seasons of absolute brilliance before developing a problem and never being the same again. More recently, a horse like Master Minded was also never quite as breathtakingly good as when winning his first Champion Chase. Even Denman, who came back and finished second in the Gold Cup three times after his heart problem was sorted out, arguably never quite had that same air of invincibility.
As we have made the point before though, whatever happens with Sprinter Sacre now and in the future won't ever change what he achieved the season before last. He will still be one of the best steeplechasers ever seen.
At longer trips, our champion of last season was actually Cue Card, whose Betfair Chase victory came in the strongest race of its kind. He's a very talented horse, although to some extent that performance is another reminder as to just how good Sprinter Sacre is given the way Sprinter brushed him aside in both the Arkle two seasons ago and then Melling Chase last year.
Jezki - a horse for the big occasion?
To some extent, I think he fits into the same category as More Of That, as he didn't get the credit he deserved for the Champion Hurdle - probably due to the sad demise of Our Conor and the interference that The New One encountered in that incident.
We rated his Champion Hurdle victory at 171 and that would be good enough to win the vast majority of Champion Hurdles. He then went on to confirm those placings with Hurricane Fly at Punchestown and I think there is a danger he could be forgotten about when we're looking at potential horses for this year's Champion Hurdle - especially as he's a horse who doesn't seem to be fully wound up until later in the season and who clearly finds the fast gallop and make-up a fast-run and stiff two miles suits him well.
Would The New One have won without meeting that early interference? I don't think so. Obviously he made up a lot of ground, but he was doing it at a stage of the race where the taps hadn't really turned on and I think people can get a bit carried away when they see a horse making up ground like that.
Our final ratings were Jezki 171, My Tent Or Yours 170, The New One 169, Hurricane Fly 168, and as things stand it's Jezki who I think offers the most value in the ante-post market.
The might of the Mullins team
Just behind those horses in the hurdling ratings is Un De Sceaux on 168, but it's arguably Faugheen who most people will be looking forward to seeing this season. He's rated 166p and he really does fit into the 'could be anything' category, although I have a nagging doubt about his jumping which still looks clumsy on occasions.
It's often overlooked just how important jumping is in the Champion Hurdle and the other top-grade two-mile hurdles, but the very best performers are making ground at their obstacles every time rather than losing it.
There isn't much point trying to second-guess which route all of the very smart horses Willie Mullins trains are going to take this season, but I don't think we should necessarily read too much into the way they were kept apart at Cheltenham last season. You got the feeling that Mullins really did want Hurricane Fly to win the Champion Hurdle and that plans were geared around what was a bit of a special case.
I don't think there will be such a need to keep those horses apart this season if they all do progress as expected and end up back at the Festival.
Mullins is on record as saying that Faugheen is going to stay hurdling and he is an obviously exciting prospect but the trainer seems arguably more excited about Vautour, which is interesting. On bare form, Faugheen has achieved a fair bit more than Vautour, who only has a rating of 158p, but if they really think Vautour is the best of the lot you have to sit up and take notice.
It's not just those two though, of course. There is a horse like Briar Hill, who you'd have to think - based upon his previous form with the winner - would have won the Albert Bartlett Hurdle but for falling. He's rated 151p and could be a Gold Cup horse for the future.
You could say the same about Annie Power, who earned a rating of 165p in the World Hurdle, who I really hope will go chasing now rather than winning the same sort of races she was last season.
Whichever way you look at it, Willie Mullins is a trainer with staggering strength in depth to his team this season and we ought not to forget that Sir Des Champs is coming back too as the trainer really wants to win a Gold Cup and reckons this horse will give him his best hance.
Champagne Fever is another one not to forget with a Gold Cup in mind either. He ended up only winning one race last season, which has left a bit of a dent in his reputation. I wonder if they might go for the Ryanair this season and work up towards the Gold Cup trip the season after, but there's Ballycasey to fit into calculations too and he didn't seem to be getting home over three miles, so he'd be another Ryanair possible.
What do we make of Champagne Fever's defeat in the Arkle? Well, if you take the winner out it all seems to make plenty of sense! I think the way I would look at it is that the winner, Western Warhorse, is a really buzzy horse who rose to the big occasion and might struggle to repeat that form. He made a mistake early on, dropped back a bit and that actually made the race for him because he was able to gather himself back together while others were working harder.
But if that was a hard result to explain...
I've seen David Lynch films that made more sense than the Gold Cup. Lord Windermere earned a rating of 161 for his win in the Gold Cup, making him the lowest-rated winner of that race since the promoted Master Smudge in 1980 and one of the lowest we've ever seen in the race.
It was unavoidably a below-par Gold Cup. I don't like saying that and of course, that doesn't mean that Lord Windermere wasn't a very worthy winner, but putting a figure to the form wasn't easy because of the performances of the horses who went into the race with the best form - indeed it reminded me a little of Synchronised's Gold Cup in the sense that you were wondering exactly which horses ran to their best.
Had Cue Card lined up, I think we might have got a different result one way or another. I just felt that in his absence the likes of Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth were left to chip bits off each other too early and they left themselves vulnerable up the hill for real stayers like the winner and On His Own.
Of course, we know that Jim Culloty's yard were clearly out of form earlier in the season and that was probably the only race in which we saw the real Lord Windermere. But I'd be very, very surprised if he was able to do it again. I just hope they don't become famous last words.
Timeform's Chasers & Hurdlers 2013/14 is available now, priced £75, at www.timeform.com