Phoenix betting guide

A preview, stats and tips for this week's closing leg of the Desert Swing - the Dubai Desert Classic

By Dave Tindall Twitter: @DaveTindallgolf.   Last Updated: 28/01/14 2:29pm

  • Share:

Sky Bet

The PGA Tour heads back to the desert this week for The Waste Management Phoenix Open in Arizona.

Co-designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale first hosted the Phoenix Open in 1987.

TPC Scottsdale is overlooked by the McDowell Mountains and surrounded by the Sonoran Desert.

One of the annual highlights of this extremely popular event is the atmosphere created by the 20,000 raucous fans who watch the action at the short par-three 16th hole and bet on whether players will hit or miss the green. Those who miss are roundly booed!

TPC Scottsdale is a low-scoring venue with last year's tournament average dipping below 69.

Live coverage of all four days begins on Sky Sports 4 at 20:00 on Thursday.

Last year

Already the fan's favourite in Scottsdale having gone to college at Arizona State, Phil Mickelson sent the locals into a frenzy with a stunning wire-to-wire victory. He opened in sensational style with a 12-under 60 and saw his putt to shoot a magical 59 somehow horseshoe out of the hole. He added rounds of 65-64-67 to win by four strokes match the tournament record of 28-under. It was his third win in this event.

Mickelson holds his head after missing his putt for a 59 last year

PLAYERS with GOOD to REASONABLE FORM at TPC SCOTTSDALE

Last Eight Years

Player: '06 / '07 / '08 / '09 / '10 / '11 / '12 / '13

Robert Allenby: 55 / - / 25 / - / 8 / 62 / 33 / -
Aaron Baddeley: MC / Won / MC / 35 / 74 / 37 / 65 / 65
Keegan Bradley: - / - / - / - / - / - / 15 / 24
Jonathan Byrd: 7 / - / 13 / 25 / MC / 37 / MC / -
Greg Chalmers: - / - / - / - / 24 / Wd / 19 / 36
Ben Crane: - / - / 4 / MC / 36 / 18 / 2 / 11
Brendon de Jonge: - / - / - / 25 / MC / 22 / MC / 6
Matt Every: - / - / - / - / 8 / - / - / 9
Rickie Fowler: - / - / - / 58 / 2 / 13 / 26 / MC
Brian Gay: 33 / 23 / 17 / 6 / 68 / 18 / MC / 24
Bill Haas: - / MC / 9 / MC / - / 29 / 19 / 6
JB Holmes: Won / MC / Won / MC / 43 / 5 / 45 / MC
Charles Howell: 40 / 23 / 25 / MC / 4 / MC / 33 / 36
Spencer Levin: - / - / - / - / - / MC / 3 / -
Hunter Mahan: - / 44 / MC / 35 / Won / 29 / - / 16
Phil Mickelson: 7 / MC / 2 / MC / 24 / 29 / 26 / Won
Bryce Molder: - / - / - / - / 8 / 62 / 15 / 24
Ryan Moore: 40 / MC / MC / 6 / 14 / 73 / 78 / 4
Kevin Na: - / 67 / 4 / 3 / 53 / MC / 5 / 36
Joe Ogilvie: 12 / 32 / MC / 60 / 8 / 13 / MC / MC
Geoff Ogilvy: 20 / MC / MC / 17 / 62 / 13 / - / MC
Ryan Palmer: 2 / - / - / 60 / 14 / MC / 55 / 5
Pat Perez: MC / MC / 43 / 48 / 24 / 22 / 19 / Dq
Scott Piercy: 15 / - / - / 6 / 8 / - / 50 / 3
John Rollins: 15 / 2 / 30 / 70 / 53 / 53 / 8 / 24
Rory Sabbatini: 20 / 59 / 34 / 12 / MC / 22 / - / 49
Webb Simpson: - / - / - / 65 / MC / 8 / 8 / -
Vijay Singh: 20 / 7 / MC / - / - / 3 / Wd / -
Brandt Snedeker: - / 23 / 9 / MC / 43 / 8 / 50 / 2
Kyle Stanley: - / - / - / - / - / - / Won / 74
Brendan Steele: - / - / - / - / - / 53 / 5 / 6
David Toms: 19 / 8 / MC / 4 / MC / MC / - / 54
Bo Van Pelt: 68 / 39 / MC / MC / MC / 18 / 8 / 16
Camilo Villegas: 2 / MC / 34 / MC / 8 / Wd / 73 / -
Nick Watney: MC / 32 / 34 / 12 / 24 / 5 / - / 43
Bubba Watson: - / 8 / MC / 25 / 36 / 29 / 5 / 15
Mark Wilson: - / - / 9 / 48 / 14 / Won / 19 / MC
Gary Woodland: - / - / - / 60 / - / 5 / 26 / 16
Yong-Eun Yang: - / - / - / - / 3 / 8 / MC / 72

PLAYERS with POOR to MEDIOCRE FORM at TPC SCOTTSDALE

Last Eight Years

(No Top-40 Finishes from three or more starts since 2006)

Player: '06 / '07 / '08 / '09 / '10 / '11 / '12 / '13

Stephen Ames: MC / MC / - / MC / - / 62 / - / MC
Kris Blanks: - / - / - / - / - / MC / MC / MC
Graham DeLaet: - / - / - / - / MC / - / 55 / MC
Ken Duke: - / MC / MC / MC / - / - / 50 / 43
Paul Goydos: - / - / MC / - / 70 / 62 / Wd / -
Nicholas Thompson: 59 / - / - / 68 / MC / - / - / -
Cameron Tringale: - / - / - / - / - / 73 / MC / 43

TOP-25 Finishers at TPC SCOTTSDALE in 2013 (Not Already Listed Above)

Padraig Harrington: (T-9th)
Robert Garrigus: (T-11th)
Billy Horschel: (T-11th)
Kevin Stadler: (T-11th)
Roberto Castro: (T-16th)
James Hahn: (T-16th)
David Hearn: (T-16th)
Troy Matteson: (T-16th)
Kevin Chappell: (T-24th)
Chris Kirk: (T-24th)
Ted Potter: (T-24th)

LOWEST 15 STROKE AVERAGES at TPC SCOTTSDALE

(Last Four Years 2010/13)

Average (Rounds)

67.50: Matt Every (8)
67.67: Hunter Mahan (12)
67.69: Phil Mickelson (16)
67.88: Ben Crane (16)
68.00: Scott Piercy (12)
68.06: Brandt Snedeker (16)
68.08: Bill Haas (12)
68.08: Brendan Steele (12)
68.08: Gary Woodland (12)
68.13: William McGirt (8)
68.17: Nick Watney (12)
68.25: Bubba Watson (16)
68.29: Bo Van Pelt (14)
68.36: Rickie Fowler (14)
68.38: Keegan Bradley (8)

Min. No. of Rounds = 8

TPC SCOTTSDALE Tournament Averages

(Last 12 Years 2002/13)

Average (Rounds)

2002: 70.34 (403)
2003: 69.13 (408)
2004: 70.55 (402)
2005: 71.57 (414)
2006: 70.34 (402)
2007: 69.85 (407)
2008: 70.31 (402)
2009: 70.88 (405)
2010: 69.93 (443)
2011: 69.52 (407)
2012: 70.76 (414)
2013: 68.95 (410)

LOWEST ROUNDS at TPC SCOTTSDALE SINCE 2000

60: Mark Calcavecchia (2001)
60: Phil Mickelson (2005)
60: Phil Mickelson (2013)
61: JJ Henry (2006)
61: Scott Piercy (2013)
62: Eight times
63: 23 times

Note: Prior to 2000, the lowest round carded at TPC Scottsdale was 60 by Grant Waite in 1996.

TPC Scottsdale: Par 71; 7,216 yards

Winning Totals (Last Three Years):
2013 - 256 (Phil Mickelson)
2012 - 269 (Kyle Stanley)
2011 - 266 (Mark Wilson)

Conclusion

If Phil Mickelson was fit, he'd have to be worth considering again but his bad back is likely to seriously hamper his chances and could yet stop him participating at all.

''If it was any other tournament I'd skip it,'' Mickelson said on Monday. ''But I'm defending, it's my second hometown and I love the event. I'll have a light practice session and if it goes well, I may try to play.''

So where to look for the best bets?....

Ryan Palmer was runner-up in The Humana Challenge in California last time out and his other 2014 start produced a tied eighth in the Sony Open in Hawaii.

This looks a great time to side with him again as this tournament is a real birdie-fest and Palmer, who shot 26-under to finish second in La Quinta a fortnight ago, relishes such conditions.

Ryan Palmer: In great form

He hasn't always excelled here but he has clicked several times and his CV shows a second place in 2006 and a fifth last year. On his last two appearances he's opened with a seven-under 64.

Fifth in Strokes Gained - Putting this season, Palmer look a tidy bet at 33/1.

Graham DeLaet (2-6-7) and Presidents Cup teammate Marc Leishman (2-5-7) are both playing some great golf and have virtually identical form figures.

So it seems strange that the Canadian is 25/1 while the Aussie 45/1.

Neither have great course form but Leishman's is better due to a 19th two years ago (DeLaet has gone MC-55-MC) so it's obvious who looks the most appealing wager.

Leishman can certainly shoot the low numbers required and in his last nine rounds he's carded a 64, two 65s and a 66.

Finally, I'll go with Billy Horschel at 30/1.

The American will be one who feeds off the big crowds rather that getting intimidated by them and he certainly had fun last year when tied 11th on debut.

Horschel opened 69-68 last year but thrived on the weekend, shooting 11-under (64-67).

He kicked off 2014 with a sixth place in the the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and has since made the top 25 at the Humana and last week's Farmers Insurance Open.

The 27-year-old won last year's Zurich Classic of New Orleans with a winning total of 20-under (67-71-66-64) so he can definitely thrive when scoring is low and already this year is sixth in Par Breakers (birdies and eagles), a category he finished 12th in last season.

Best bets

2pts e.w. Ryan Palmer at 33/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1.5pts e.w. Marc Leishman at 45/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1.5pts e.w. Billy Horschel at 30/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

  • Share:

Related

Waste Management Phoenix Open 2014

Craig Stadler: Could now play alongside father Craig at Augusta.

Stadler savours 'special' win

Kevin Stadler admitted his first PGA Tour victory had come out of the blue after claiming the Phoenix Open on Sunday.

Kevin Stadler: Heading to Augusta

Stadler snatches Phoenix win

Kevin Stadler captured his first PGA Tour title after a dramatic finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Bubba Watson: Can he post his first win since the 2012 Masters?

Bubba two clear in Phoenix

Bubba Watson will take a two-shot lead into the final round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale.

Most Popular

Features

Good Week/Bad Week

Good Week/Bad Week

So much can change in a sporting week and, sure enough, there have been plenty of highs and lows.

Hunter's gathering

Hunter's gathering

Hunter Mahan is in the mix for a Ryder Cup place after his win at The Barclays, says Andrew Coltart.

PGA Tour Companion

PGA Tour Companion

Follow every moment from the FedEx Cup events with Sky Sports for iPad’s new PGA Tour Companion.