Wednesday 15 January 2014 11:21, UK
Dave Tindall's preview, statistics and best bets for this week's Abu Dhabi Championship.
PLAYERS with GOOD to REASONABLE FORM at ABU DHABI GOLF CLUB
Full Tour History
Player: '06 / '07 / '08 / '09 / '10 / '11 / '12 / '13
Rafael Cabrera-Bello: - / - / - / 15 / 43 / 7 / 48 / 23
Paul Casey: 45 / Won / MC / Won / 27 / 18 / - / 23
George Coetzee: - / - / - / - / - / - / 6 / 9
Jamie Donaldson: MC / - / 23 / 50 / 21 / 11 / 30 / Won
Mark Foster: 12 / MC / 34 / 20 / 64 / MC / 17 / 39
Sergio Garcia: 3 / 14 / - / 8 / 13 / - / 12 / -
Ricardo Gonzalez: 4 / MC / 17 / 35 / MC / 8 / 63 / 52
Richard Green: 20 / 29 / 17 / 26 / 13 / 31 / 63 / 23
Peter Hanson: 61 / 2 / 43 / 10 / 11 / MC / 35 / 9
Padraig Harrington: - / 5 / 11 / 5 / - / Dq / 35 / 23
Thongchai Jaidee: 12 / 14 / 34 / 13 / 13 / 46 / MC / 9
Miguel Angel Jimenez: 5 / 2 / 43 / MC / MC / 11 / 42 / -
Robert Karlsson: 30 / 14 / 11 / - / 60 / - / 24 / -
Martin Kaymer: - / MC / Won / 2 / Won / Won / MC / 6
Paul Lawrie: MC / 20 / 30 / 20 / 27 / MC / 8 / 52
Peter Lawrie: MC / MC / 17 / 20 / 27 / MC / MC / 23
Joost Luiten: - / - / - / - / - / 23 / 42 / 6
Matteo Manassero: - / - / - / - / 73 / 37 / 6 / 23
Gareth Maybin: - / - / - / - / MC / 5 / 14 / 39
Rory McIlroy: - / - / 11 / 5 / 3 / 2 / 2 / MC
Thorbjorn Olesen: - / - / - / - / - / - / 8 / 2
Alvaro Quiros: - / 50 / 17 / 26 / 11 / 23 / MC / -
Robert Rock: - / 59 / - / 47 / MC / MC / Won / Wd
Henrik Stenson: 2 / 8 / 2 / MC / 21 / 42 / MC / 23
Anthony Wall: 45 / 29 / 17 / 4 / 37 / 11 / 35 / MC
Steve Webster: 30 / 20 / 17 / MC / 21 / 46 / - / 32
Chris Wood: - / - / - / - / 19 / 23 / MC / 70
PLAYERS with POOR to MEDIOCRE FORM at ABU DHABI GOLF CLUB
Full Tour History
(No Top-40 Finishes from three or more starts)
Player: '06 / '07 / '08 / '09 / '10 / '11 / '12 / '13
Darren Clarke: - / - / 61 / - / 56 / MC / MC / MC
Michael Hoey: - / - / - / - / MC / MC / 48 / 61
James Morrison: - / - / - / - / - / MC / MC / MC
Jose Maria Olazabal: - / - / - / - / - / MC / 69 / MC
Lee Slattery: - / 75 / MC / MC / - / - / MC / MC
Peter Whiteford: - / - / - / - / - / MC / 42 / 48
Fabrizio Zanotti: - / - / - / - / MC / 67 / MC / 56
TOP-25 Finishers at ABU DHABI GOLF CLUB in 2013 (Not Already Listed Above)
Ricardo Santos: (4th)
Branden Grace: (5th)
David Howell: (T-6th)
Jorge Campillo: (T-9th)
Jbe Kruger: (T-9th)
Michael Campbell: (T-17th)
Craig Lee: (T-17th)
Marcus Fraser: (T-21st)
Bernd Wiesberger: (T-21st)
Danny Willett: (T-23rd)
LOWEST 15 STROKE AVERAGES at ABU DHABI GOLF CLUB
(Last Four Years 2010/13)
Average (Rounds)
68.57: Martin Kaymer (14)
69.07: Rory McIlroy (14)
69.25: Thorbjorn Olesen (8)
69.50: Sergio Garcia (8)
69.69: Jamie Donaldson (16)
69.75: George Coetzee (8)
70.17: Paul Casey (12)
70.42: Soren Hansen (12)
70.43: Peter Hanson (14)
70.50: Joost Luiten (12)
70.57: Thongchai Jaidee (14)
70.60: Alvaro Quiros (10)
70.63: Rafael Cabrera-Bello (16)
70.67: Steve Webster (12)
70.69: Richard Green (16)
Min. No. of Rounds = 8
LOWEST 15 AVERAGE TOURNAMENT POSITIONS in GULF STATES *
(Last Five Years - Since Jan 1st, 2009)
Average (Events)
12.88: Sergio Garcia (16)
13.53: Rory McIlroy (15)
20.00: Martin Kaymer (19)
21.13: Alvaro Quiros (16)
22.55: Peter Hanson (20)
27.07: Paul Casey (15)
28.82: Robert Karlsson (11)
29.44: Rafael Cabrera-Bello (18)
33.71: Anthony Wall (17)
35.20: Soren Hansen (15)
35.55: Thongchai Jaidee (20)
38.00: Stephen Gallacher (19)
38.18: Chris Wood (17)
38.22: Miguel Angel Jimenez (18)
38.82: Thorbjorn Olesen (11)
Min. No. of Events = 10
* - European Tour events staged in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Qatar & Bahrain
LOWEST ROUNDS at ABU DHABI GOLF CLUB (All-Time)
62: Henrik Stenson (2006)
63: Chris DiMarco (2006)
63: Philip Archer (2007)
63: Paul Casey (2009)
63: Rick Kulacz (2010)
64: 10 times
Note: The lowest final round score at Abu Dhabi Golf Club is 64 - carded five times.
Abu Dhabi: Par 72; 7,600 yards
Winning Totals (Last Three Years):
2013: 274 (Jamie Donaldson)
2012: 275 (Robert Rock)
2011: 264 (Martin Kaymer)
Conclusion
The top three in the betting - Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson and Sergio Garcia - all look to be genuinely likely winners so, unlike some weeks, it's hard to just dismiss the favourites.
But, at the prices, you really have to pick just one and that looks hard to do. How do you separate them?
With that the case, let's look further down the betting to two players who are tournament sharp after fine displays in the Volvo Golf Champions.
Branden Grace was sitting on a one-shot clubhouse lead on Sunday before Louis Oosthuizen birdied the final two holes to pip him in Durban so he's clearly in excellent nick.
Add to that a fifth place in this event last year when he closed with a 65 and he should be full of confidence.
Encouragingly, Grace's verdict on his runners-up finish on Sunday was more excitement than disappointment. "I thought I played some superb golf today," he said. "If you told me my first event, start off with a second place, coming this close, I would have taken it. I'm really stoked with this beginning."
Take the four-time European Tour winner at 33/1.
Joost Luiten also had a close brush with victory in Durban and just appears to go from strength to strength.
A bit like Jamie Donaldson last year, the Dutchman looks ready to win an event of this magnitude.
Two of his last three starts in the UAE have produced fine finishes - a fourth in the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai in November and a sixth place here last year - so everything looks in place for Luiten to be right up there.
Victory in his home KLM Dutch Open last year proved he can handle the pressure and that forms part of a sequence of results which shows a win and three other top fours in his last nine starts.
Even with a lack of winter practice, he finished third last week (the second round albatross helped of course) so, with the rust off, he's well worth a punt at 28/1.
Finally, it may pay to take a risk on Thorbjorn Olesen.
As with many young players, he has a tendency to blow hot and cold and go off the boil but his record in this part of the world is extremely eye-catching.
In this event the 24-year-old Dane finished eighth on debut in 2012 and then runner-up last year after rounds of 68-69-69-69.
He was also third in the Dubai Desert Classic and overall his record in the UAE shows six finishes of 21st or better in his last seven starts.
Olesen is a massive talent so ignore the poor displays in the second half of 2013 and back him at 60/1 to make a fast start to 2014 here.
Best bets
2pts e.w. Branden Grace at 33/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
2pts e.w. Joost Luiten at 28/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 60/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)