Tuesday 27 August 2013 18:02, UK
Stats and best bets for the second FedEx Cup play-off event - the Deutsche Bank Championship.
Conclusion
The big question mark heading into the second event of the FedEx Cup play-offs at TPC Boston surrounds the fitness or otherwise of Tiger Woods.
Woods displayed all of his trademark grit and determination to battle his way to a runner-up finish behind Adam Scott at The Barclays last week, but at what cost?
It was certainly uncomfortable viewing to watch the World No 1 collapse to his knees crying out in pain during the back nine of Sunday's final round at Liberty National.
Woods has already pulled out of close friend Notah Begay's charity event this week and, even if he does commit to play Massachusetts, it is hard to believe the injury will not impede him to a greater or lesser extent.
With that in mind it seems fair to take Woods on at the head of the market.
With scoring at TPC Boston always going deep (the winner has reached 20-under or better in three of the last five years) birdie-making will be key to success this week.
With that in mind who better to start with than the man who leads the Tour's birdie average statistics this season, Phil Mickelson.
Following his back-to-back victories in Scotland last month, Mickelson endured a couple of rather mediocre outings by his high standards at Firestone and then Oak Hill where an awful third round ended his hopes of contending at the USPGA.
But after a steady start last week, Lefty finished like a train with a 65 at The Barclays to claim a tie for sixth and then said after that final round: "I believed that today was going to be a good day and it was a day whether I went really low or not, that it would build some momentum for next week. I feel like now, my ball striking is coming around. It was pretty sharp. I feel really good on the greens and I'm looking forward to getting to Boston next week."
A past winner (2007) at TPC Boston, Mickelson knows what it takes to get the job done and, when he's turned it on this season, has looked a very hard man to beat.
Having threatened to contend only to slip back after a poor third round last week, we'll put Webb Simpson up again at a course at which he has a proven pedigree.
Simpson looks to be on the verge of a big result with three top-15 finishes in his last four outings - the other being T25 at the USPGA.
He is another who ranks highly in the birdie average stats (22nd) and, like Mickelson, is another former winner of the event having triumphed two years ago.
Last year's US Open champion is still waiting to get off the mark this season but looks capable of doing so this week.
Another birdie-machine with great course form is Brandt Snedeker, although, like Tiger Woods, he arrives this week with an injury concern or two surrounding his game.
Snedeker himself insisted there was no major problem despite grabbing at his back during last week's second round in New Jersey, but his injury problems earlier in the campaign do leave you fearing for him somewhat.
But such is his form at TPC Boston he could well be worth chancing this week, especially with his price inflated by a mini-slump.
Since winning in Canada a month ago Snedeker finished T66 at the USPGA before missing the cut at his home-town event (the Wyndham Championship) and last week at The Barclays.
But form figures of of 5th (2010), 3rd (2011) and 6th (2012) at TPC Boston mean he is hard to ignore, particularly when added to the fact that he is now a proven winner on Tour.
Last up, and some way further down the betting market, we'll have a small interest in Ryan Moore who seems to come alive at this time of year and has performed well at this tournament over the past couple of years.
Moore makes a good deal of interest at 66s in the outright market on the back of successive top-10 finishes at the event, but it is in the first round leader market he looks particularly attractive given his recent penchant for fast starts.
Since the Travelers Championship at the end of June, Moore has broken 70 in five of his six first rounds, posting a 66 and a couple of 67s along the way.
Backing him to make a fast start at a course at which he has progressive form figures could be a smart way to go.
Best bets
2pts win only Phil Mickelson at 14/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1.5pts e.w. Webb Simpson at 28/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1.5pts e.w. Brandt Snedeker at 40/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. first round leader Ryan Moore at 60/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
