Boston betting guide

Stats and best bets for the second FedEx Cup play-off event - the Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston

By Mark Kendall - Twitter: @SkySportsMK.   Last Updated: 27/08/13 6:02pm

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Webb Simpson won the Deutsche Bank Championship in 2011

Webb Simpson won the Deutsche Bank Championship in 2011

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Week two of the four-tournament Fed-Ex Cup play-off series brings the players to Massachusetts.

Opened in June 2002, the Arnold Palmer-designed TPC Boston is on the PGA Tour schedule for the 11th time.

This tree-lined course, with plenty of sand, has undergone a number of modifications during the past seven years - much of it at the hands of Tour pro Brad Faxon.

The top 100 players in the Fed-Ex Cup play-off standings, following the opening event of the series in New Jersey, are qualified to tee-up this Friday.

SELECTED PLAYERS with GOOD to REASONABLE FORM at TPC BOSTON

Last Eight Years

Player: '05 / '06 / '07 / '08 / '09 / '10 / '11 / '12

Aaron Baddeley: MC / 7 / 5 / MC* / - / 69 / 77 / 42
Jason Bohn: 2 / 69 / - / - / 32 / 41 / - / -
Angel Cabrera: - / - / 23 / 15 / 4 / 18 / - / -
Jason Day: - / - / - / 50 / 19 / 2 / 3 / 51
Luke Donald: - / - / 60 / - / 54 / 2 / 3 / 26
Jason Dufner: - / - / - / - / 2 / 18 / 31 / 18
Ernie Els: - / - / - / 3 / MC / 30 / 16 / 26
Jim Furyk: - / - / 55 / 7 / 8 / 37 / 6 / 13
Sergio Garcia: - / - / 17 / 5 / 26 / - / 31 / -
Lucas Glover: 40 / 12 / 14 / 50 / 36 / 65 / 21 / -
Bill Haas: - / 15 / - / 69 / 15 / 22 / 61 / 35
Charley Hoffman: - / MC / MC / 33 / 27 / Won / 31 / 26
Charles Howell: 4 / 18 / 30 / MC* / 54 / 67 / 31 / MC
Dustin Johnson: - / - / - / - / 4 / 57 / 42 / 4
Zach Johnson: MC / - / 30 / - / 19 / 30 / 16 / 47
Jerry Kelly: - / MC / 65 / MC / 11 / - / 10 / -
Matt Kuchar: 27 / - / 41 / MC / 15 / 11 / 25 / 35
Justin Leonard: 15 / MC / 55 / 7 / 19 / 30 / - / -
Hunter Mahan: MC / 22 / MC / 15 / 36 / 33 / 8 / 39
Phil Mickelson: - / - / Won / MC* / 27 / 25 / 10 / 4
Ryan Moore: - / 12 / 41 / MC* / MC / 67 / 10 / 10
Geoff Ogilvy: - / - / 6 / 72 / 7 / 2 / 25 / 51
Pat Perez: - / - / Wd / 21 / 27 / MC / 61 / 26
Carl Pettersson: 4 / MC / MC / 21 / - / MC / 37 / 57
Chez Reavie: - / - / - / 63 / - / - / 2 / -
Justin Rose: 27 / 4 / MC / - / 54 / MC / 68 / MC
Adam Scott: - / 50 / 17 / MC* / - / 5 / 8 / 7
John Senden: 74 / 61 / 23 / 33 / 11 / 8 / 21 / 12
Webb Simpson: - / - / - / - / MC / MC / Won / 18
Brandt Snedeker: - / - / 47 / 27 / 32 / 5 / 3 / 6
Steve Stricker: MC / 7 / 9 / 13 / Won / 9 / 42 / 13
Bo Van Pelt: 10 / 50 / 30 / 44 / MC / 25 / 7 / 26
Camilo Villegas: - / 66 / 9 / 3 / 61 / 61 / 25 / -
Johnson Wagner: - / - / - / 15 / - / - / 25 / 51
Bubba Watson: - / 12 / MC / 44 / 32 / 37 / 16 / MC
Charlie Wi: 52 / - / 14 / 44 / 19 / 18 / MC / MC
Mark Wilson: 10 / MC / 30 / 40 / 27 / - / 56 / 66
Tiger Woods: 40 / Won / 2 / - / 11 / 11 / - / 3

MC* - Missed Additional 54-Hole Cut

SELECTED PLAYERS with POOR to MEDIOCRE FORM at TPC BOSTON

Last Eight Years

(No Top-35 Finishes from three or more starts since 2005)

Player: '05 / '06 / '07 / '08 / '09 / '10 / '11 / '12

Greg Chalmers: - / MC / - / - / 36 / 41 / 42 / 39
Brendon de Jonge: - / - / - / - / - / 45 / MC / 60
Bob Estes: - / - / MC / - / 49 / - / - / 42
Rickie Fowler: - / - / - / - / - / 41 / 52 / 74
Robert Garrigus: - / 57 / 65 / - / - / - / 59 / 42
Brian Gay: - / 66 / 70 / 50 / 54 / MC / MC / -
Scott Piercy: - / - / - / - / 36 / - / 74 / 64
Ian Poulter: - / - / MC / MC / MC / 45 / MC / 47
Josh Teater: MC / - / - / - / - / 45 / - / 60
Jimmy Walker: - / MC / - / - / - / MC / 37 / 51

TOP-20 Finishers at TPC BOSTON in 2012 (Not Already Listed Above)

Rory McIlroy: (Won)
Jeff Overton: (T-7th)
Bryce Molder: (9th)
Kevin Stadler: (T-10th)
Keegan Bradley: (T-13th)
Lee Westwood: (T-13th)
Jonas Blixt: (T-20th)
John Merrick: (T-20th)
DA Points: (T-20th)
Nick Watney: (T-20th)

LOWEST 15 STROKE AVERAGES at TPC BOSTON

(Last Five Years - 2008/12)

Average (Rounds)

67.67: Tiger Woods (12)
68.25: Angel Cabrera (12)
68.25: Brandt Snedeker (20)
68.33: Adam Scott (15)
68.45: Steve Stricker (20)
68.55: Jim Furyk (20)
68.60: John Senden (20)
68.67: Justin Leonard (12)
68.69: Luke Donald (16)
68.69: Jason Dufner (16)
68.75: Charley Hoffman (20)
68.83: Sergio Garcia (12)
68.85: Jason Day (20)
68.94: Dustin Johnson (16)
68.95: Phil Mickelson (19)

Min. No. of Rounds = 10

LOWEST ROUNDS at TPC BOSTON

61: Vijay Singh (2006)
61: Mike Weir (2008)
62: Six times
63: 20 times

TPC Boston: Par 71; 7,214 yards

Winning Totals (Last Three Years):

2012: 264 (Rory McIlroy)
2011: 269 (Webb Simpson)
2010: 262 (Charley Hoffman)

Conclusion

The big question mark heading into the second event of the FedEx Cup play-offs at TPC Boston surrounds the fitness or otherwise of Tiger Woods.

Woods displayed all of his trademark grit and determination to battle his way to a runner-up finish behind Adam Scott at The Barclays last week, but at what cost?

It was certainly uncomfortable viewing to watch the World No 1 collapse to his knees crying out in pain during the back nine of Sunday's final round at Liberty National.

Woods has already pulled out of close friend Notah Begay's charity event this week and, even if he does commit to play Massachusetts, it is hard to believe the injury will not impede him to a greater or lesser extent.

With that in mind it seems fair to take Woods on at the head of the market.

With scoring at TPC Boston always going deep (the winner has reached 20-under or better in three of the last five years) birdie-making will be key to success this week.

With that in mind who better to start with than the man who leads the Tour's birdie average statistics this season, Phil Mickelson.

Following his back-to-back victories in Scotland last month, Mickelson endured a couple of rather mediocre outings by his high standards at Firestone and then Oak Hill where an awful third round ended his hopes of contending at the USPGA.

But after a steady start last week, Lefty finished like a train with a 65 at The Barclays to claim a tie for sixth and then said after that final round: "I believed that today was going to be a good day and it was a day whether I went really low or not, that it would build some momentum for next week. I feel like now, my ball striking is coming around. It was pretty sharp. I feel really good on the greens and I'm looking forward to getting to Boston next week."

A past winner (2007) at TPC Boston, Mickelson knows what it takes to get the job done and, when he's turned it on this season, has looked a very hard man to beat.

Having threatened to contend only to slip back after a poor third round last week, we'll put Webb Simpson up again at a course at which he has a proven pedigree.

Simpson looks to be on the verge of a big result with three top-15 finishes in his last four outings - the other being T25 at the USPGA.

He is another who ranks highly in the birdie average stats (22nd) and, like Mickelson, is another former winner of the event having triumphed two years ago.

Last year's US Open champion is still waiting to get off the mark this season but looks capable of doing so this week.

Another birdie-machine with great course form is Brandt Snedeker, although, like Tiger Woods, he arrives this week with an injury concern or two surrounding his game.

Snedeker himself insisted there was no major problem despite grabbing at his back during last week's second round in New Jersey, but his injury problems earlier in the campaign do leave you fearing for him somewhat.

But such is his form at TPC Boston he could well be worth chancing this week, especially with his price inflated by a mini-slump.

Since winning in Canada a month ago Snedeker finished T66 at the USPGA before missing the cut at his home-town event (the Wyndham Championship) and last week at The Barclays.

But form figures of of 5th (2010), 3rd (2011) and 6th (2012) at TPC Boston mean he is hard to ignore, particularly when added to the fact that he is now a proven winner on Tour.

Last up, and some way further down the betting market, we'll have a small interest in Ryan Moore who seems to come alive at this time of year and has performed well at this tournament over the past couple of years.

Moore makes a good deal of interest at 66s in the outright market on the back of successive top-10 finishes at the event, but it is in the first round leader market he looks particularly attractive given his recent penchant for fast starts.

Since the Travelers Championship at the end of June, Moore has broken 70 in five of his six first rounds, posting a 66 and a couple of 67s along the way.

Backing him to make a fast start at a course at which he has progressive form figures could be a smart way to go.

Best bets

2pts win only Phil Mickelson at 14/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1.5pts e.w. Webb Simpson at 28/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1.5pts e.w. Brandt Snedeker at 40/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. first round leader Ryan Moore at 60/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

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