Tuesday 5 May 2015 16:49, UK
Ben Coley has selections ranging from 70/1 to 300s for the Players Championship as he spies an upset at TPC Sawgrass.
You may not find a better field all year than that which assembles for the PLAYERS Championship, golf’s so-called fifth major and an event whose roll-of-honour is an illustrious one.
TPC Sawgrass is a fitting host course. Designed by the legendary Pete Dye, this 7,215-yard par-72 is an intricate, demanding test of precision and patience and with Florida winds forecast to play their part, anyone who reaches what’s become the standard winning score of 13-under-par will be extremely hard to beat.
On form, one or both of Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth should get close to that target. Between them, these young men have amassed 10 titles in the 12 months that have passed since Martin Kaymer clung on to win last year’s PLAYERS and they arrive in red-hot form.
But at the prices on offer – 7/1 McIlroy and 15/2 Spieth – it makes sense to look for each-way value, particularly with Sky Bet offering seven places. McIlroy isn’t due to arrive at Sawgrass until Wednesday having taken a deserved break following his gruelling triumph in the Match Play, while Spieth has also been on the go for some time now and so demanding is this test that any breakdown in his concentration levels will be punished.
Top of my list this week is Zach Johnson, although regular readers will have to forgive and forget following his abject display in the RBC Heritage.
Johnson went into that event as just about the clear second-favourite to Spieth but, having performed poorly, he’s now out to a fantastic each-way price. Admittedly, his play at Harbour Town was poor but this 11-time PGA Tour winner bounced back to form at Harding Park, beating Jason Day and Branden Grace only to be eliminated in a sudden-death play-off.
To my mind, that’s a perfect preparation – Johnson played well in San Francisco but, unlike McIlroy, Gary Woodland, Jim Furyk and Danny Willett, did not have to go through a tiring seven matches in five days. Instead, he’s been able to focus on the PLAYERS and it’s an event he’d dearly love to win, having come close when finishing second in 2012.
Johnson’s game is about accuracy and touch and Sawgrass favours such types. He’ll relish the challenge of shaping his drives to find what are small targets and providing he gets off to a solid start on Thursday, I firmly expect the 2007 Masters champion to be a factor come the weekend.
Last year, this title went the way of a young man with a mature game and something similar could happen with Harris English.
Just 25, English is nowhere near as experienced as Kaymer but he does have a similar demeanour on the course and that partly explains why he’s produced much of his best golf at demanding, tree-lined courses including here at Sawgrass where he sat fourth after two rounds on his debut.
English missed the cut on the number in the Zurich Classic two weeks ago but only made two bogeys in his 36 holes and didn’t play at all badly, while in the Match Play he was another who had to head home despite winning two of his three group games.
So far, 2015 has been really solid and he showed just what he can do on a tough golf course when second at Torrey Pines, so with those juicy place terms on offer he’s a good each way bet.
To some extent I like Rickie Fowler and even Tiger Woods at the prices but instead of getting involved with classy players whose form isn’t quite where it needs to be, I’d rather side with a couple of journeymen who are playing really nicely at present and could just hit the frame.
Alex Cejka has some history at Sawgrass having led after three rounds in 2009, only to wilt under the pressure of playing alongside Woods in the final round.
The 44-year-old returns now as a PGA Tour winner having landed the Puerto Rico Open earlier this season and he’s ticked along really nicely since, finishing 11th in Houston and making the cut in every subsequent start. Whether he can win I’m far from certain but a small outright bet as well as a play in the first-round leader market looks good value.
George McNeill has a similar game to Cejka’s and is also a PGA Tour winner who arrives in form, having finished on the fringes of the top 10 in Louisiana a fortnight ago.
McNeill is a Florida resident who was fifth with 18 holes to play last year and will be more comfortable than most if the wind does blow.
Finally, Ben Crane is worth chancing to return to his best. Simply put, he’s a five-time PGA Tour winner who has four top-10 finishes at Sawgrass and has at least made the weekend in his last two events.
Crane isn’t the most consistent and has long fought for fitness but he remains among the straightest hitters in the game and a hot week with the putter could again see him challenge.
Selections:
1pt e.w. Zach Johnson
1pt e.w. Harris English
1pt e.w. George McNeill
0.5pt e.w. Alex Cejka (outright and first-round leader)
0.5pt e.w. Ben Crane
