Tuesday 10 March 2015 17:56, UK
Ben Coley previews the Valspar Championship with Luke Donald and Ryan Moore heading his staking plan.
From the bombs away test at Trump National Doral, the PGA Tour heads to Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course for the Valspar Championship and an entirely different test.
This par 71 is by no means short at 7,340 yards and hitting fairways is not actually a necessity, as shown by John Senden last year. But what is important is to manage your game effectively and engage brain before body, while a tidy short game is of course going to separate the haves from the have-nots at the top of Sunday’s leaderboard.
With those requirements in mind it’s little surprise that Luke Donald is a course specialist and he looks set to challenge for the second time in three weeks.
The former world number one has been waxing lyrical about his work with coach Pat Goss ever since finishing third in South Africa just before Christmas, but it’s only very recently that everything has fallen into place as he finished in a tie for seventh at the Honda Classic.
What’s notable about that effort is that Donald has an exceptional record at PGA National, and this is a common theme throughout his career – when he returns to courses he knows and loves, more often than not be threatens to win.
That was the case even in a poor 2014 when he finished fourth here, third at Hilton Head and second at Wentworth, and it’s reason enough to ignore a modest week at Doral which was just too long for him. Back on terrain he knows and loves, Donald might just be the man to beat and makes strong appeal as he bids to cement his place inside the world’s top 50.
The betting says Adam Scott is the one they’re all shooting at and it’s hard to argue with that, except for the fact that so far he’s really done nothing at Copperhead to suggest that the course suits his game. Naturally, Scott can win anywhere if he brings his best but it might pay to take a cautious view of his apparently good putting on what was an excellent return to action last week.
Jordan Spieth would be the pick of those at the very head of the market in preference to Jim Furyk, whose winless streak is just too long to consider supporting him at 20/1. But Spieth, who is shorter still, doesn’t quite appear to be in the form which saw him set the world alight in a sensational two-week run last December.
Instead, Ryan Moore rates good each-way value at approaching the 40/1 mark.
This former US Amateur Champion does things his own way – he’s playing Parsons Extreme Golf irons he bought in a shop having declined a lucrative contract renewal from TaylorMade – but his quality is unquestionable as we saw again last week when he flew out of the blocks on his way to a top-10 finish.
Anyone who saw the closing stages of the Cadillac Championship will know that Moore was booked for fourth until a disastrous run over holes 16-18, but it’s quite easy to take a positive view of the performance given that he was trying to keep tabs on a trio of players who hit the ball so much further than him.
Back on a shot-maker’s course like Copperhead, there’s every hope that Moore can continue in the form that has led him to four PGA Tour titles, three of which have been on tree-lined tracks like this one, and he does have a top-10 finish to his name in this event.
Others of note include bright young things Harris English and Daniel Berger, albeit the latter looks a tad short and I will instead look towards a pair of outsiders to complete the staking plan.
First up, Brendon de Jonge arrives on the back of his best performance of 2015, a tie for 10th in Puerto Rico, and anything approaching 100s looks worth taking.
The Zimbabwean is known as a habitual nearly-man but at the price that’s factored in, and instead I’d focus on the positives which include top-40 rankings in both fairways and greens, a previous top-five at the course and a generally progressive run of form since the turn of the year.
De Jonge lost a play-off to Robert Streb in the McGladrey Classic at the start of the season and on this occasion did very little wrong, while once again demonstrating that shorter, more technical golf courses are always likely to suit. Further to that, I’ve a sneaky suspicion that Copperhead favours those who cut the ball and de Jonge hits almost everything left-to-right.
Finally, Shawn Stefani can bounce back from a missed cut and show that he’s also among the most talented maidens around.
A late bloomer, Stefani first came onto the radar with a share of seventh here two years ago in what remains his sole start in the event. Since then he’s gone close at the OHL Classic, the AT&T National and the FedEx St Jude Classic, all of which are played on similar golf courses.
The big-hitting Texan clearly thrives when there’s a challenge in front of him off the tee and there’s been nothing in his recent play to suggest that he can’t be competitive now returning to an event at which he holds fond memories.
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