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Paul Merson's Premier League predictions - Week 1

The Soccer Saturday pundit tips wins for Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool - but it's bad news for the promoted clubs

Man City v Newcastle (7pm, Mon, Sky Sports 1 HD)

Arsenal v Aston Villa

If Arsenal got Luis Suarez they would be a massive threat to the Premier League, but right now the fans will turn up at the Emirates Stadium waiting to see what happens. They were promised that the club would sign some big players, but they've got nobody; just one free transfer. I went out and bought a sandwich yesterday, so I've spent more money than Arsenal over the summer! The fans will feel hard done by because they've lost players to lesser teams. Gonzalo Higuain went to Napoli, Gustavo has gone to Wolfsburg and something has gone horribly wrong with the Luis Suarez thing. It's embarrassing and the fans won't be happy. You wouldn't want to go 1-0 down here because Villa have pace on the counter-attack with Christian Benteke, Andreas Weimann and Gabriel Agbonlahor. If Arsenal score first then I see them winning quite easily, so the first goal will be important. I'll go for a narrow home win. PAUL PREDICTS: 2-1

Liverpool v Stoke

I'm interested to see how Stoke play because Mark Hughes has said he doesn't want to play the Tony Pulis way. But you can only have a passing team if you've got passing players. Peter Crouch and a couple of others are very comfortable on the ball, but you can't turn a team into a passing team if they're not passers. That process will take time, but Hughes can't afford to start slowly because all eyes are on him. I think he's a good manager but people remember the QPR situation and a good start is important. But I don't think he'll get the result. I think Liverpool are decent and I just wonder if they can handle the pressure at home. Last year if they didn't score early then they tended to struggle and often drew 0-0 with lesser teams. If they score early they can rip a team, but they get very nervous at home if they don't score in the first 25 minutes. However, I think they have gone under the radar a little bit and will score goals this season. I think they'll win this. PAUL PREDICTS: 2-0

Norwich v Everton

I find this game very interesting because Everton fans will be waiting to see what their new manager can do. They've played great football over the last few years and have done well and then Roberto Martinez has come in and started buying players from Wigan - a team that were relegated and have been in the bottom four for as long as you can remember. I think that buying players you know is sometimes a bit lazy and the manager will be under a bit of pressure. I'm going for a draw in this game. I think Gary Hooper is a good signing for Norwich because he's a good finisher, but he'll be living on scraps at Norwich instead of the 50-chances-a-game he got at Celtic. Chris Hughton is a good manager and I think this game will be a draw. PAUL PREDICTS: 1-1

Sunderland v Fulham

I wonder how quickly all of Sunderland's new players will buy into the Paolo Di Canio philosophy? He's a fitness fanatic who trains hard, which is a good thing when you're winning every week. If you start losing then players will wonder why they're doing it and he needs a really big start to the season. If you take away the Newcastle result last year he hasn't had many great wins so he needs to get off to a flyer. I'm not sure about Fulham away from home, but Adel Taarabt, Dimitar Berbatov, Darren Bent and Bryan Ruiz can rip any team apart. Both of these teams could get sucked in if they have a bad start and it's important to make sure you're not on a downer after these first three games before the international break. Both sides will be looking to get on a high and I'm going for another draw. PAUL PREDICTS: 1-1

West Brom v Southampton

This will be a tight game between two teams who had good seasons last year and you wouldn't be surprised which one finishes above the other this season. Rickie Lambert will be on a high and a comedown at the same time after his England debut on Wednesday night and everybody will be looking at him. The newspapers will be doing "Lambert watch" or whatever, so it'll be interesting to see how he reacts. West Brom will miss Romalu Lukaku, but Shane Long is a good player and Nicolas Anelka is there now. I played with him at Arsenal and I thought he'd go on to be one of the best of the best, but you get to a certain age in football and you only get worse. As great as Ryan Giggs is, he's nowhere near as good as he was 10 years ago. It'll be interesting how much they use him because if he fires he'll do damage, but he's at the wrong age for me. PAUL PREDICTS: 1-1

West Ham v Cardiff

This is a nightmare start for Cardiff because West Ham are pretty strong. They'll be sweating on Andy Carroll because Cardiff will keep it tight and he would provide an outlet. They can get the ball up to him in the box every two minutes and it'll be much easier for Cardiff if he doesn't play. But I think West Ham will nick it anyway because they're a decent team at home and they'll give all of the big boys a game at Upton Park this year. I think Stewart Downing is a great buy for that football club, especially at that price, and I think him and Matt Jarvis will provide very good service. West Ham could have a good season this year. PAUL PREDICTS: 2-0

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