Tuesday 21 April 2015 09:19, UK
Why history suggests Barcelona will make the semi-finals – and Bayern Munich are on their way out...
Ahead of the Champions League quarter-final first legs, Barcelona and Bayern Munich would have been many peoples’ favourites to win the competition outright. Now, the odds are stacked against one of Europe’s heavyweights progressing to the semis…
Barcelona’s 3-1 success at PSG has put them in pole position to book another final-four spot, given they have the best home record in the Champions League over the past 10 years.
However, Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich face an enormous task to overturn their defeat at Porto on Tuesday night.
While the German giants have talented attacking reserves to call on, their 3-1 first-leg reverse leaves the Bundesliga leaders needing to set a new club record to reach the next phase.
Bayern have lost the first leg of a European Cup/Champions League knockout tie by a two-goal margin four times – and failed to overturn that deficit on each occasion.
They did comeback from a 2-0 loss at home to Inter Milan in the 1988/89 UEFA Cup, but will have to do what no Bayern team has done before to keep their Champions League hopes alive.
As for Barcelona, while the prospect of a PSG frontline featuring Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Edinson Cavani scoring three goals is not beyond the realms of possibility, history is firmly on their side.
The Catalans have suffered just four defeats on their own soil in Europe’s elite club competition over the past decade. Manchester United can better that - the Old Trafford faithful have only seen three losses in that time - but no one can match the Spaniards' 39 wins.
Just one of those four losses – the 2013 3-0 humbling by Bayern Munich, which contributed to a remarkable 7-0 aggregate defeat in the semi-finals – has seen an opposition outfit score the required number of goals needed by PSG this week.
Barca’s four Champions League home defeats in the past 10 years:
Barcelona 0-3 Bayern Munich, May 2013
Barcelona 1-2 Rubin Kazan, Oct 2009
Barcelona 2-3 Shakhtar Donetsk, Dec 2008
Barcelona 1-2 Liverpool, Feb 2007
Best Champions League home records since 2005
Barcelona P55 W39 D12 L4 F136 A41
Real Madrid P48 W36 D5 L7 F124 A44
Chelsea P50 W34 D11 L5 F104 A35
Bayern M P46 W33 D7 L6 F110 A36
Arsenal P46 W30 D10 L6 F96 A33
Man Utd P44 W30 D11 L3 F86 A36
Watch Bayern Munich v Porto live on Sky Sports 1 HD and Sky Sports 5 HD from 7.40pm on Tuesday
