Monday 13 April 2015 18:33, UK
Real Madrid have the best chance of winning the Champions League, according to a new study.
The CIES Football Observatory have analysed the squads of the eight teams left in the Champions League and reckon Carlo Ancelotti's men have a 27 per cent chance of glory.
Barcelona (22 per cent), Bayern Munich (16) and PSG (13) are next on the list of favourites.
The rankings take into account the experience of each team's personnel, time players have spent with their current employers and the transfer activity of each of the clubs - three factors the CIES Football Observatory deem to be crucial to success on the European stage.
Pressure relieved by experience
The level of experience within each club cannot be overlooked; if a player has seen it all before, they immediately go into pressure situations one step ahead.
The last five winners of the Champions League gathered players with a total experience of 865 matches in the competition. This amounts to 37.6 games per player. Only three out of the eight teams qualified for the quarter-finals in the 2014/15 edition have squads with such experience: Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona.
Stability in the dressing room
Real Madrid and Barcelona hold the top two spots when it comes to players' experience in top flight competition and international football. And when it comes to squad stability, the La Liga pair score well again.
The last five Champions League winners had players who were present in the first team squad for 3.5 years on average. This value varied between 3.9 years for Bayern Munich in 2012/13 and 2.9 years for Chelsea in 2011/12.
Among the current quarter-finalists, the Barcelona squad average four years at the club. Real Madrid also have average levels above those of the five last winners, while Bayern Munich and Juventus follow closely. Once again, the lowest values were recorded for Porto and Monaco.
Spending wisely
On average, the last five Champions League winners have fielded just 2.6 new players in the competition and the study points out the benefits of cohesion in a squad.
Of this season's quarter-finalists Real Madrid (2.08), Juventus (1.12), PSG (1.06) and Monaco (0.75) all meet this criteria.
The study looks at where the new arrivals came from – a key indicator of the quality of the incoming personnel.
Summary
Football is often unpredictable, which is the main reason it is the most watched spectator sport on the planet.
However, given Real Madrid's experience squad, stable dressing room and recruitment policy - which has seen them spend more than any of the other quarter-finalists in the past two seasons - they are the CIES Football Observatory favourites for Champions League glory.
Visit www.football-observatory.com for the full report
Watch the Champions League quarter-final on Sky Sports from Tuesday
