Tuesday 21 April 2015 08:16, UK
Bayern Munich host Porto in the Champions League quarter-finals on Tuesday night looking to overturn a two-goal first leg deficit in a European tie for the first time in their history.
Porto extended their unbeaten run in Europe's elite-club competition to nine games this season, and took a step closer to a first semi final in 11 years, with a stunning 3-1 over the Bundesliga champions at the Estadio do Dragao.
We caught up Sky Deutschland journalist Uli Koehler for his thoughts before a defining game in Bayern's season...
Bayern have never progressed through a European tie having entered the second leg trailing by two goals. What’s the consensus in Germany before the game; can they overcome Porto?
For the first time in a long time public opinion is about 50/50. I saw a survey on TV which said 52 percent thought they would make it and 48 percent were against it.
This is very rare for Bayern Munich because normally people think they make it anyhow. It’s a little bit different this time and, in my opinion, it will be really hard and they won’t qualify.
Can you give us an update on the latest injury news from the Bayern camp. Who’s in and who out?
Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery and David Alaba - these are the three key absentees for Bayern. Every game Bayern play they have large amount of possession, but these three players are usually the difference because they have individual skill and they produce surprising moments.
Without these three players, Bayern cannot surprise their opponents and that’s why they haven’t performed as well as they have in the past. Philipp Lahm and Thiago Alcantara have only just returned from months out. While they are both great players, they haven’t played for a long time and that can affect them.
What weaknesses will Bayern look to exploit when Porto travel to the Allianz Arena? And similarly, how will Guardiola’s side stop the Porto from running riot as they did at the Dragao?
The problem with Bayern at the moment is that they have got only 14 fit players who qualify to play in the Champions League. They have six or seven players injured and the 14 fit players that have been playing have been doing so every third or fourth day for the last three weeks.
That was the reason why they lost in the Estadio Do Dragao. They lost their concentration, lost everything in Porto after a tense German Cup game which went to extra time in the week before.
But, on the other hand, Bayern Munich are always able to win a game against any team in the world by two goals. Porto are a young term and they know exactly how to hurt Bayern Munich which we saw in the first leg.
Sometimes when young teams come to the Allianz Arena they don’t perform well because they are overwhelmed by the atmosphere and the stadium. This happens often and, while I can’t say if it will happen against Porto, there’s a chance.
Bayern enter the game in mixed form having won three, drawn one and lost two of their last six. What positives can they draw from those games?
Bayern’s last six games are certainly a disadvantage rather than an advantage - there have been many injured players. The team doctor resigned after the loss in Porto. He had an argument with Guardiola, and that was a big story because he was at the club for almost 40 years.
At the moment it doesn’t look like Bayern could make it. But, it they can get past Porto and into the latter stages of the tournament in May, they will have a strengthened squad capable of winning the competition.
What’s going to happen - can Bayern overturn the deficit?
The only thing Bayern have to avoid are the incredible individual errors we saw in the first leg – they have to keep their concentration. But that’s dangerous because of the threat Porto possess on the counter attack.
It will be game where Bayern have 60 to 65 percent ball possession but there will be four or five times when Porto have really good chances on the counter. So you’ve got to cross your fingers and pray they don’t make it.
On the other hand, I’ve seen so many games in Munich where they’ve made a good start and been in front after three minutes, and then any scoreline can happen. However, the longer the game remains goalless, the harder it will be for Bayern.
What are the implications for Bayern if they exit the competition prematurely? Is Pep Guardiola’s job in jeopardy?
As always, when Bayern don’t make it to the latter stages of a tournament there will be a discussion with the manager. But this will not be because his job is in jeopardy. They will ask him why Bayern have so many injured players – that’s the big question.
The board will ask why other teams are not facing problems similar to Bayern. He will also be asked about the dangerous tactics Guardiola uses, where they have a lot of ball possession far away from their own goal leaving them susceptible to the counter.
But they want to extend his contract here so there will be no discussions about his future at club level, although there will be talk about it in the media if they fail to qualify. We believe Guardiola will fulfil his contract until the end of next season then we will see.
Watch FC Bayern v FC Porto live on Tuesday. Coverage starts 7:40pm, Sky Sports 1 & 5 HD
