Plus, Ed tips his beloved Southampton for a top four finish
Sunday 9 November 2014 19:03, UK
Ed Chamberlin previews the weekend's Premier League action and picks his annual Ten-to-follow from the world of racing...
Can Southampton finish in the top four? "No chance" said Jamie Carragher. It's a big ask but Sky Bet are only 3/1 about the Saints qualifying for the Champions League. 85% of sides with 22 points or more from the opening 10 games in the Premier League have gone on to finish in the top four. Only two (Wigan in 2005/06 and Manchester City in 2007/08) have ended up finishing outside the top six.
I have stored the Carragher quote!
Mind you, I can't talk when it comes to quotes about Southampton as I'm responsible for informing the boys after a pre-season friendly against Bayer Leverkusen that Graziano Pelle was no good. He hasn't stopped scoring since.
Pelle and the brilliant Dusan Tadic have been getting all the headlines at Southampton but the biggest improvement has been their defending. Saints have let in five goals in 10 games, which is half the next best in the Premier League and is the meanest defence in English football.
There may be a dearth of top class centre halves across Europe but Toby Alderweireld has looked rock solid alongside Jose Fonte so far and Fraser Forster has had a re-assuring presence in goal. Again against Hull, Forster hardly had a save to make which says a lot about those in front of him.
Key to that is the shield provided by Victor Wanyama and Morgan Schneiderlin. They provide protection to the back four that so many top sides are lacking. That will stand them in good stead for the big tests ahead against Manchester United, City, Chelsea and Arsenal. That's when we will really find out if the top four is a possible dream.
Clueless
How Arsenal could do with a similar shield in front of their back four. This weekend we're in Swansea for Super Sunday to see how Arsenal respond to throwing away that three goal lead on Tuesday night against Anderlecht. Paul Merson described the team as "tactically clueless" but I imagine the SkyBet trading department was relieved as all the other favourites won that night in the Champions League.
All four of Arsenal's Premier League wins have come against teams currently in the bottom six. Swansea at home, with Wilfried Bony and Gylfi Sigurdsson against their makeshift back four, will ensure this a difficult test for Arsenal.
Before that game we get to see the resurgent Newcastle side at West Brom. In the space of three Premier League games they've gone from relegation candidates to only 5/2 to finish in the top half.
November means it's time to enter a list for the Sky Sports Ten-to-Follow competition. I remember one person on Twitter describing my list last year as 'the worst and most boring list he'd ever seen'. It was good enough to win a fourth title in seven years. I haven't yet matched Liverpool's haul of European Cups but the kind folk at Sky Sports News HQ have allowed me to keep the inexpensive trophy, which sits proudly in the attic.
I fear the runners and riders are the same motley crew from previous years. Richard Fahey's form figures read 000- so I think we can put a line through his chance. He was backed off the boards with Sky Bet to pick up the wooden spoon last year, and those shrewd punters were narrowly denied. The master from Musley Bank was equally disappointing in the summer's Sky Bet Magnificent Seven competition so should consider the application of headgear.
Our esteemed editor Dave Ord tends to have blinkers applied for the Sky Bet Hennessy tipping competition later this month. Ord will again have his card marked on the 'gravy train' trips alongside Mikes Vince and Shinners to the top National Hunt yards but it never seems to help and he's likely to settle for mid-division yet again.
Shinners is known as 'Winners' but he has a wretched record in this competition. Like Burnley it will be a battle to survive in the big league for SkyBet's Racing PR Manager.
Dale Tempest used to have his ten horses chosen by some shrewdies, as despite never winning the competition he has gone close on a couple of occasions. It will be interesting to see who he recruits to do the job this year.
Fellow columnist Alex Hammond often trades as ante-post favourite but hasn't come close to losing her maiden tag, while Rachel Wyse has finished on the podium and with the wooden spoon so in the words of Ellie Goulding "anything could happen". As the face of the GAA, I expect Rachel to have recruited some top Irish contacts.
The big dangers will once again be Sky Sports News HQ supremo Andy Cairns and At The Races governor Rob Dakin.
The big dilemma this year is whether to include Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre. They could take the season by storm, yet there's risk attached to including both. The vibes for Simonsig seem strong and he's SkyBet's 5/1 favourite for the King George on Boxing Day.
Here are my ten to go to battle with:-
Briar Hill - heavily backed to win the Albert Bartlett at the Festival. Staying division looks weak in Ireland and he can mop up races en route to the World Hurdle.
Boston Bob - don't be put off by his return at the weekend. Can win big points in the valuable Irish chases either side of Christmas and is my idea of the Gold Cup winner.
Djakadam - had paddock judges raving at Cheltenham. A dark horse for the Gold Cup and big contender in the Hennessy Gold Cup.
Jezki - should be favourite to retain his Champion Hurdle crown. Exciting now McCoy knows he can attack rather than hold him up which went pear-shaped this time last year. Should be a potent combination.
More Of That - the most promising young horse in England.
Pont Alexandre - they thought he was a superstar before things went wrong in the Neptune two seasons ago. Keep the faith.
Saphir du Rheu - described by Paul Nicholls as looking like Denman. Will go to the top over fences or hurdles.
Shutthefrontdoor - was AP McCoy's horse to follow in this column last year (he'll reveal this year's horse next week). Expected to be aimed at the Grand National but could be even better than that.
Vautour - I remember seeing him in the paddock before the SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle and telling Dale Tempest and Michael Shinners that he was built like an Arkle horse already. Should be spectacular over fences.
Vukovar - Vukovar and Sraid Padraig are my two handicappers to follow. The former can win big races on flat tracks with soft ground.
