Thursday 7 May 2015 17:49, UK
Sky Sports' Football League expert Peter Beagrie runs the rule over two tantalising League One showdowns as part of his bumper play-off guide.
Sheffield United and Preston are both out to end their play-off misery - the Blades have lost a record four play-off finals, while Preston have yet to taste success in nine attempts - but Swindon and Chesterfield stand in the way of a shot at the Championship.
Beags assesses all four sides' chances - and picks the men to watch...
SHEFF UTD V SWINDON
Sheffield United will be second favourites behind Preston just because of the size of the club, the stature, the history. They've got a horrendous play-off record but it'll be the fans who will be thinking more about their past disappointments; this time it's a different set of players and a different manager.
Like Swindon, they've rested key men in recent weeks so they'll be looking to freshen things up.
The Blades have played more games this season than anyone else in the division - this will be their 62nd game! - so that shows what a successful campaign it's been on the cup front. It’ll only be a successful season in the league, though, if they get out of this division. Nottingham Forest, Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday from across town will tell you how difficult that is.
Sheffield United proved in that two-legged Capital One Cup semi-final against Tottenham that they could handle the big occasion; Nigel Clough will hope that big-game mentality comes through again.
Marc McNulty's shown an eye for goal when it matters but Jamie Murphy - who's been rested to ensure he's in tip-top condition - is the man who can transform defence into attack. He's wonderfully balanced, blessed with pace and athleticism, and he's chipped in with 12 goals this season. Lots of people are looking at him from the higher divisions and rightly so; hopefully United can hold onto him and give him a platform to build on.
They’re up against a Swindon side who have had a magnificent season.
They were going toe-to-toe with Bristol City from the off, playing counter-attacking football full of pace and enthusiasm, and what was so impressive for me was how they coped when Massimo Luongo and Yaser Kasim were away on international duty.
Louis Thompson, who's got a dislocated shoulder, will be a big miss, but Nathan Byrne is one to watch – he’s been in irrepressible form, attacking from that wing-back or full-back position. Mark Cooper's not just managed to get some influential players in from Spurs, he's also brought in the likes of Ben Gladwin from non-league. He can play absolutely anywhere and gets in among the goals.
We shouldn't look at the form table too much - both these sides have rested players - but the Swindon will sit in and try and counter-attack in the knowledge they comfortably beat the Blades 5-2 at home. Sheffield United got the better of them at Bramall Lane; they’d certainly be happy with another 2-0 to tee them up for Monday’s decider.
BEAGS' KEY MAN: Jamie Murphy (Sheffield United)
OPTA STATS
* Both teams have a win each in matches against each other this season, with both going to the home side.
* Swindon have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 league meetings with Sheffield United.
* The Robins have not won at Bramall Lane since February 1970, drawing twice and losing 12 since then.
* The Blades have made the League One play-offs in three of the last four seasons including this year, losing in the 2012 final on penalties to Huddersfield and in the semi-finals to Yeovil a year later.
* This will be Swindon’s eighth appearance in the play-offs, reaching the final four times and getting promoted on three occasions. They last made the League One play-offs in 2013, losing in the semi-finals to Brentford.
* Sheffield United scored more than a third of their goals in the final 15 minutes in League One this season (23/66 - 35%).
*The Robins failed to win any of their last five league games this season (D3 L2).
SKY BET'S VIEW
Sheffield United were one of the pre-season favourites for Sky Bet League 1 glory and although they fell short of automatic promotion, the Blades can still be proud of a campaign that saw them reach the semi-finals of the Capital One Cup and secure another play-off berth. This is their third attempt in the past four years and Nigel Clough’s side are 4/5 with the League sponsor to progress past Swindon Town over the course of both legs and 6/5 to open up with a home triumph on Thursday evening. The Robins finished eight points clear of their rivals in the regular season and have won two of the last three encounters between the teams, including a 5-2 victory earlier this season. Mark Cooper’s men are priced at 23/10 to take a lead from Bramall Lane and even money to make it through to the Wembley showdown, while a first-leg draw is 23/10. United’s Mark McNulty, along with Andy Williams and Michael Smith of Swindon, are all 11/2 to open the scoring.
CHESTERFIELD V PRESTON
Hats off to MK Dons for an incredible achievement but if anyone's going into these play-offs with a sense of injustice, it’s Preston.
They finished 20 points clear of Chesterfield in sixth spot but Simon Grayson will be telling his players that they’ve now got another bite of the cherry. Imagine if we didn’t have the play-offs and they had nothing to play for?
They've been in incredible form - 18 games unbeaten before that last-day defeat to Colchester. Nobody saw that coming but that's football.
Like Sheffield United, there's a lot of expectation at Deepdale. They’ve a bigger budget and fanbase than most and this is their 10th crack at the play-offs after nine defeats.
Simon’s done an incredible job in transforming them from a functional team to one that has everything. They can put their foot in and scrap but they've got individuals in the final third who can unhinge teams.
Joe Garner’s been brilliant but Paul Gallagher, with 15 assists, is the pivotal player for me. He gets on the ball, makes things happen and doesn't feel the pressure. Add in the pace of Chris Humphrey and the Lilywhites are perfectly equipped to go through - as long as there's no hangover. With the experience of Kevin Davies in the dressing room, too, I don't think they'll succumb to the pressure.
Could Daniel Johnson, who had a spell at Chesterfield on loan from Aston Villa earlier in the season, be the man who comes back to haunt them? He’s pacy, he’s combative and he gets forward.
I spoke to Paul Cook after Chesterfield had been promoted last season; he was really looking forward to a shot at League One and his side have certainly embraced the challenge. They've coped with the loss of Eoin Doyle and Cook has worked wonders in the transfer market.
They're a youthful side who’ve respected teams rather than feared them but made a marquee signing in Gary Roberts last year. He propelled them to League One and he’s been the catalyst this year for all their bright inventive play in the final third.
It's a tough ask for them but they play a risk-and-reward game that gives them the chance of doing something not many teams can achieve: back-to-back promotions.
BEAGS' KEY MAN: Paul Gallagher (Preston)
OPTA STATS
*Chesterfield have failed to score in four of their last five league meetings with Preston.
*The Spireites have lost each of their last four home games with Preston, failing to score in each one.
* Preston have made the play-offs nine times in the past, losing each of the three times they reached the final. However, they’ve never reached the final of the third-tier play-offs.
* This will be Chesterfield’s third play-off appearance, and first since 1995. They’ve reached the final on both of their previous appearances, losing to Cambridge in 1990 and beating Bury in 1995 (both fourth tier).
* North End’s defeat at Colchester on the final day was the first time they’d failed to score in a league match since November, finding the net in 29 consecutive games.
* Chesterfield have not been in the second tier of English football since 1951.
SKY BET'S VIEW
Chesterfield were the surprise package in Sky Bet League 1 this season and must be applauded for achieving a play-off place, especially having lost top-scorer Eoin Doyle to Cardiff in the January transfer window. They haven’t won since the middle of April but hammered Colchester 6-0 that day and are an eye-catching 19/10 to bounce back to winning ways against Preston at the Proact Stadium, while a Thursday night draw can be backed at 23/10. The visitors don’t have many happy memories from past play-offs and could be forgiven for thinking they should have gone up automatically this season. However, Simon Grayson’s side occupied second spot for 12 weeks prior to their final-day home defeat and will need to shrug off that disappointment if they’re to justify 7/5 favouritism to win this first-leg encounter. However, the statistics say that Chesterfield haven’t beaten Preston since 1999 and it’s no surprise to see the Lilywhites quoted at 4/9 by the League sponsor to progress to Wembley.
Watch Sheffield United v Swindon Town - League One play-off semi-final first leg - live on Sky Sports 2 HD from 7.30pm and Chesterfield v Preston live on Sky Sports 5 HD from 7.30pm.
