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Falcao to Chelsea? Clyne to Liverpool? Scouting trends explored

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It's no coincidence that Liverpool look to Southampton and Chelsea eye Atletico stars, writes Adam Bate...

Nathaniel Clyne excelled at Southampton but that hasn’t stopped the jokes. The south-coast side are now Liverpool’s feeder club, you see. Didn’t Brendan Rodgers learn his lesson after the struggles of Rickie Lambert and Dejan Lovren? Should the Southampton tea lady expect to be headhunted too?

As for Radamel Falcao joining Chelsea after a difficult season at Manchester United, the signing has been variously described as Jose Mourinho’s folly or simply further evidence of 'super agent' Jorge Mendes’ machinations behind the scenes.

But while it’s easy to mock Chelsea or wonder whether Liverpool’s scouts need to get out a bit more rather than just camping outside St Mary’s, the signings could instead be interpreted as evidence that the two clubs remain committed to principles that have not been altered by the last 12 months.

It’s not some personality quirk of Rodgers’ that makes him turn to Southampton for players. Even under Nigel Adkins, he praised them as “a team that like to play and pass” and that style of play makes them a logical fit for life in his Liverpool side.

They played in a similar mould to us, so the players understand the pressing, the intensity and the possession.
Brendan Rodgers on Southampton

“We were after a certain type of player that fits the profile and the mould of the way we play,” he explained last summer once the deals for Lovren and Adam Lallana were concluded. “They played in a similar mould to us, so the players understand the pressing, the intensity and the possession.”

He added: “I think the advantage of taking them is that they understand how we work. All the players we have brought in were done so because of their profile. Southampton played in a really offensive, aggressive way and the players that have come in will adapt that little bit quicker to that.”

Sound logic

The methods behind Liverpool’s logic are sound. Scouting individuals can be a tricky business in team sports. How can you predict what a player will do in your team if they play in a different way for their current employers?

It’s likely to be an issue that’s been troubling Liverpool in regard to their pursuit of Aston Villa striker Christian Benteke. Tim Sherwood had his own motivations when telling reporters that “there’s no point going to a club where they don’t cross the ball” but it’s a legitimate concern nevertheless.

Nathaniel Clyne has mirrored Adam Lallana's move from Southampton to Liverpool
Image: Nathaniel Clyne has followed Adam Lallana in joining from Southampton

Tottenham’s head of player identification Rob Mackenzie helped produce the Science of Scouting series for Sky Sports last season and highlighted that minimising risk is a vital part of the process. Signing players from similar set-ups can play its part in doing that.

“There are a lot of mismatches that can occur when a striker is bought by another club who don’t create the types of chances that he is used to,” Mackenzie told Sky Sports during his time as head of technical scouting at Leicester City.

“It’s not to say that strikers aren’t capable of scoring different types of goals but if you’re trying to minimise risk and you’re looking at how a player usually takes his chances, if we’re not creating those types of chances there’s a possibility it won’t work.

“So we look hard at how teams play, where their chances come from and then we ask ourselves whether we create those types of chances. We try to model clubs who play a similar way so it’s easier to see if they are doing it more or less effectively than our players.”

Atletico Madrid's Radamel Falcao (R) celebrates with Diego  Costa (C) and Filipe Luis (L) in 2013
Image: Filipe Luis, Diego Costa and Radamel Falcao are now reunited at Chelsea

It’s not just a tactical issue either. Mourinho’s admiration for Atletico Madrid’s efforts in recent seasons is well known with the Chelsea boss describing being a goal down to Diego Simeone’s side as being “almost impossible” following their semi-final defeat in 2014.

Mourinho appears convinced that he is acquiring a certain type of character from Atletico and this has manifested itself in the signings of Diego Costa and Filipe Luis, while Arda Turan has also been linked with a move to Stamford Bridge.

Falcao under Simeone

Radamel Falcao's only full season under Diego Simeone saw him score 28 La Liga goals - the best goalscoring campaign of his career in league football.

Former Chelsea midfielder Deco has even highlighted the similarities between Simeone’s Atletico and Mourinho’s Porto. So when Falcao arrives at the Bridge having enjoyed considerable success at both of those clubs, maybe the move should not be seen as such a shock.

Historical trends

After all, knowing what you’re getting is a significant part of scouting as Steven Houston, one-time head of technical scouting at Chelsea, explained to Sky Sports. And that’s altogether easier if there is evidence that the transition has been made before. For Falcao, read his former strike partner Costa.

“You also have to factor in the team,” said Houston, now at Sunderland. “You can look at historical trends for players who made that transition. That's what a lot of teams are trying to find out - how you can effectively make that translation.”

Liverpool supporters may point to Lovren’s Anfield struggles. Chelsea fans might well be a little underwhelmed by Filipe Luis’s impact so far. But there remains every indication that when clubs find a match that they feel fits, then they’re unlikely to be dissuaded.

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