Numbers Game

After three weeks of hard slog, otherwise known as paternity leave, Matt Briggs is back with his Numbers Game betting blog.

Millwall: Too big at home to Leicester

After three weeks of hard slog, otherwise known as paternity leave, @MattPBriggs is back with his Numbers Game betting blog.

Millwall are the value pick of the weekend and there are all the usual stats and pointers and the bookies have some interesting views as the men in the know reveal the teams that have been backed.


VALUE BET

Millwall to beat Leicester at 9/4.

Millwall look terrific value to see off promotion-chasing Leicester. The Lions have won half of their 10 home games and lost just one of the last eight - last weekend's drubbing at Ipswich - where they passed up several early chances. Leicester have been far from convincing on the road winning just three of their 10 away games and they are worth taking on in the capital.

STEAMERS

Sky Bet say the well supported teams this weekend are Liverpool, Cardiff, Leicester and Bournemouth.

WHO'S HOT

Manchester United (1/5) won last four Premier League games and host Sunderland (16/1).

Ipswich (23/10) won last three in Championship and travel to Leeds (11/10).

Leyton Orient (23/20) won last five in League One and host Scunthorpe (23/10).

Brentford (7/4) won last three in League One and travel to Notts C (6/4).

Chesterfield (19/20) won last four in League Two and host Burton (11/4).

WHO'S NOT

Reading (4/1) lost last five Premier League games and host Arsenal (8/13) (Mon).

West Brom (evens) lost last three and host West Ham (11/4) (Sun).

Sheffield Wednesday (7/4) lost last seven in Championship and travel to Barnsley (29/20).

Peterborough (8/1) lost last three in Championship and travel to Cardiff (1/3).

Rochdale (15/8) lost last three in League two and travel to Aldershot (11/8).

TRADERS' VIEW

Sky Bet odds

Fancy following one of Matt's tips? Back them here.

Sky Bet: Manchester United and Liverpool are going to be at the heart of everyone's accumulators this weekend. Liverpool are proving very popular once again and they also have the retuning Luis Suarez to help boost their push up the table.

Cardiff are going great guns at the moment at the top of the Championship and they will be hoping to cement that position with an easy looking home fixture against Peterborough.

Sheffield United entertain Tranmere where a victory can see them go to the top of League One. This looks likely as Tranmere are missing a few regular players.

BOGEY TEAMS

Tottenham (4/7) have won 12 and lost none of their 14 league games at home v Swansea (9/2) (Sun, 1.30pm).

Arsenal (8/13) have beaten Reading (4/1) in all 10 previous meetings in all competitions.

Sunderland (16/1) have failed to score in nine of last 11 Premier League games v Manchester United (1/5).

Manchester City (8/13) won four of last five at Newcastle (9/2).

Birmingham (7/4) have won eight of last nine at home to Crystal Palace (6/4).

BANKER

Stoke v Everton - under 2.5 goals at 4/6.

Stoke have seen just two of their last 13 matches go over 2.5 goals and they will make life difficult for Everton at the Britannia Stadium.

HOT-SHOTS

Coventry's David McGoldrick has four goals in his last four league games and is 6/4 to score at Doncaster.

Bournemouth's Lewis Grabban has five goals in his last three games and is 6/5 to score against Colchester.

Chesterfield's Jay O'Shea has scored in his last two games and is 11/4 to net v Burton.

TREATMENT ROOM

Portsmouth to beat Preston at 7/4.

Preston missing both full-backs Scott Laird and Keith Keane again and Nicky Wroe and Lee Holmes are both doubtful.

Bristol City to beat Derby at 9/5.

Defender Greg Cunningham (ankle) may make a surprise return to Bristol City's squad. Striker Steven Davies has also been declared fit to face his former club and Jody Morris and Martyn Woolford are also available.

Wolves to beat Middlesbrough (DNB) at 13/8.

Grant Leadbitter, Faris Haroun and Andre Bikey all have hamstring niggles and will be subject to checks on Saturday. Andy Halliday (Achilles) and Seb Hines (knee) are also doubts, while Jonathan Woodgate is also a worry.

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

Bristol Rovers to beat York (DNB) at 2/1.

Speaking after last weekend's 1-0 defeat by Dagenham, Bristol Rovers boss Mark McGhee said: "We had enough chances to win comfortably but we didn't take them and Dagenham scored with virtually their only shot.

"I am bitterly disappointed by the result, but I am not going to get angry because I felt the lads put the required effort in and just didn't get the breaks."

Torquay to beat Northampton at 5/4.

Speaking after last weekend's 1-0 reverse at high-flying Bradford, Torquay boss Martin Ling said: "It was backs against the wall, we stuck at it but it took a wonder goal to beat us. It was a poor cross but a wonderful finish and that cost us the game. It would've been a valuable point but it was not to be.

"After the sending off we went 4-3-2 but by the time we had ran around trying to regain the ball we couldn't retain it. When it's 11 v 10 it was always going to take it out of you."

You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs