Red Alert!
Dave Tindall looks to make it six straight weeks of football profits as he runs the rule over the Carling Cup final
By Dave Tindall. Last Updated: February 23, 2012 11:16am
Luis Suarez: Can help Liverpool hit the goal trail against Cardiff at Wembley
With only a Championship side to beat, Liverpool are red-hot favourites to end their six-year trophy drought when they line up against Cardiff in Sunday's Carling Cup final at Wembley. But be warned. Back in 2001 the Merseysiders faced the exact same scenario. It had also been six years since they'd landed silverware and, perhaps with that wait hanging over them, they made a right meal of seeing off Championship side Birmingham City, eventually needing a penalty shootout to win the day. Arsenal also missed the chance to end a six-year wait for a trophy when they were shocked by Birmingham in the 2011 Carling Cup final so recent history suggests that these so-called 'open goals' are anything but when big sides have lost the trophy-winning habit. Sky Bet go just 1/6 that Kenny Dalglish's men will lift the trophy while it's 4/11 the Reds will do it in 90 minutes. Cardiff are 4/1 and 8/1 in those same two markets. My initial take on this contest was that the draw would be a live runner given Liverpool's anxiousness to win a trophy and the sheer number of stalemates they'd racked up at Anfield this season. But if you look at Liverpool's record against lower league opposition this season - four wins out of four, 16 goals scored - they look a shoe-in. The results read 3-1 v Exeter, 2-1 v Brighton, 5-1 v Oldham and 6-1 v Brighton but it's worth noting that they've conceded in each match. It's 6/5 that both teams score on Sunday but Oldham and Brighton scored in the opening 45 against Liverpool so let's back the 5/1 that both teams score in the first half. As for who will get the goals, there are plenty of candidates but Sky Bet are taking no risks with the big names (4/5 Luis Suarez, Evens Andy Carroll, Craig Bellamy, 11/8 Steven Gerrard). Therefore it might be best to roll the dice and try the scorecast market. Suarez is never out of the headlines so back him to get the opener in a 3-1 Liverpool win in 90 minutes. If successful, it pays 30/1. Finally, Cardiff have shipped eight goals in their last four games while Liverpool have hit Oldham for five and Brighton for Six. That suggests the floodgates could really open so have a little on Sky Bet's special 'What If... Cardiff Hearts Are Broken?" market which offers 6/1 for Liverpool to score four goals or more.
If Liverpool do win the Carling Cup, it will set them up nicely to make a push for fourth place. And with Chelsea falling apart and Arsenal also going the wrong way there really is an opening there for the Merseysiders. Draws have hampered Liverpool's league bid but for much of the season they've had either Steven Gerrard or Luis Suarez absent and Andy Caroll looking a shell of the player he was at Newcastle. However, that trio are now all available for selection and starting to look potent and when you add in the excellent Craig Bellamy suddenly you can see Liverpool starting to turn the numerous chances they've been making into goals. Sky Bet make Liverpool 10/3 for a top four finish so they're certainly dangling a carrot to would-be Liverpool backers and the Reds look far better value than 5/6 Chelsea or 5/4 Arsenal. Newcastle fans will argue that the real value likes with their side but even at 16/1 I can't see the Magpies beating off all three of their big-name rivals.
England v Wales at Twickenham on Saturday is the pick of this weekend's 6 Nations fixtures and Sky Bet make the hosts 6/4 underdogs to take victory. Wales, the new 6/5 favourites to win the tournament, are 4/7 to turn England over while the draw is 20s. England have trailed at the break in both their matches so far (in Scotland and in Italy) before going on to win and it's 11/2 at Sky Bet that they repeat a similar turnaround against Wales. However, I think we can cash in on England's slow starts by backing Wales to lead at the break and hold out for the win after it. The Wales/Wales HT/FT double result pays 5/4 and looks a good way of extending their 4/7 outright price to odds against. Sky Bet's full outright betting reads: 6/5 Wales, 13/8 France, 5/1 England, 14/1 Ireland, 1000/1 Scotland, 2001 Wales. The Welsh are 2/1 to win the Grand Slam for which France are 3s and England 10s.
World number one Luke Donald crashed out of the first round of the Accenture Match Play Championship in Arizona and, with the Masters just six weeks away, his form is a little concerning. Before his first round exit to Ernie Els, Donald had finished 48th in Abu Dhabi and 56th at Riviera - a stark contrast to his amazing 2011 season when he finished in the top 10 in 19 of his 26 starts. Sky Bet currently have Donald at 16/1 to win the Green Jacket but those odds could drift if his form continues to desert him. Tiger Woods heads the Masters betting at 5/1, ahead of Rory McIlroy at 6s but the big mover in the last few weeks has been Phil Mickelson. The left-hander was 16s before winning at Pebble Beach and after following that triumph with a near-miss play-off loss at Riviera, Mickelson is now into 15/2 to win a fourth Green Jacket. Lee Westwood gets a 14/1 quote while last year's winner Charl Schwartzel is 40s to repeat.
Dave's tips
Both teams to score in the first half of Carling Cup final at 5/1
Scorecast: Luis Suarez to score first goal in 3-1 for Liverpool at 30/1
Liverpool to score four goal or more v Cardiff at 6/1
Liverpool to finish in the top 4 at 10/3
Wales/Wales HT/FT double result v England at 5/4
Recent winning tips:
Arsenal to beat Sunderland at 9/5
Birmingham to score first v Chelsea at 5/2
Man Utd to beat Liverpool 2-1 at 15/2
Juan Mata to score v Man Utd at 11/4
Over 2.5 goals in Chelsea v Man Utd at 5/6
Norwich to beat West Brom at 3/1
Crawley to beat Hull at 10/3
Draw/Man City HT/FT double result v Spurs at 7/2
Man Utd to beat Arsenal 2-1 at 17/2
