The Guessing Game

F1 might be the world's most technological sport but that doesn't make predicting the new season any easier.

If you think that Formula 1, with its wind tunnels and simulators, with its reliance on fluid dynamics and mass flow rates, is the most technically advanced of all sports then you'd be right. Yet even in this world, it's reassuring to know that the best thing about any sport - its uncertainty - thrives. That much was immediately apparent as I prowled the Jerez paddock during last week's opening pre-season test. The first race is little over a month away and yet predicting how the season might unfold is anyone's guess. And by anyone, I really do mean anyone. You or I could have just as good a stab at it as Adrian Newey. A Professorship of Vehicle Engineering might stand Dr Mark Gillan in good stead in his role as Williams' Chief Operations Engineer, but it doesn't grant him access to a crystal ball. Yes, some people are rather more informed in drawing their conclusions and yet the secretive, almost neurotic, level of competition that exists in F1 ensures that no-one ever truly knows precisely what is going on. In displays that seem just as much showbiz as flow vis, screening panels are hastily erected around cars as they re-enter their garages, while mechanics are dispatched to record rival machines as they make practice starts - perhaps the engine note might reveal something they have that we don't? I even found myself wondering whether social media is being drawn into the game of bluff: Caterham's Mike Gascoyne tweeted after the test that they had run high fuel levels throughout the week and yet their times, usually in the 1:22-1:23s bracket, tended to be quicker than those of Williams. Does this mean that Tony Fernandes' team are now in the midfield? Maybe, maybe not. Sometimes it seems as though the more one stares at the puddle and furrows one's brow, the murkier it gets. The drivers themselves played a straight bat, to a man saying it's far too early to make predictions. So perhaps body language might reveal something? Lewis Hamilton's eyes were aglow after his first run in the MP4-27 while Fernando Alonso seemed more muted. Yet even that approach fell flat when faced with the inscrutable visage of Kimi Raikkonen - a man who might well wear his heart on his sleeve, but not within a million miles of an assembled media scrum. We were also told that the two upcoming tests in Barcelona might reveal a little more, yet there are exceptions to that rule as well: remember McLaren last year? And what of Mercedes this? Has their gamble to skip Jerez and concentrate on developing the W03 paid off? Time will tell. A fairly static technical rulebook tells its own story when trying to make predictions - one thing that everyone seems to agree on is that the order will not be shaken up massively. And yet lines are so fine in F1 that the order need not be shuffled by teams either making a major breakthrough or dropping a massive one. The guessing game will continue right up until Melbourne - right up until qualifying probably. Never mind testing, Sebastian Vettel made an art of sand-bagging during a race weekend last year. The World Champion seemed happy enough in Spain last week; no change there then.

EARLY DAYS

How each of the teams appeared to be shaping up at Jerez... Red Bull
Made a solid start, not putting as much mileage on the RB8 as some whilst failing to match the sorts of times set by others. World Champion Sebastian Vettel lost running time on the final day but didn't seem overly concerned. McLaren
Ditto McLaren. Most of the week's attention centred on both the nose and the exhausts of the MP4-27 - the latter having apparently been deemed legal by the FIA despite fears amongst rivals that they offer an aerodynamic advantage. Ferrari
Ditto Ferrari. Well, the exhausts anyway. The F2012 set the fastest time on the final day's running but completed much less mileage than any other car, prompting suggestion's Fernando Alonso's lap had been a 'glory run'. Work to do perhaps? Mercedes
Set the fastest time on two of the three days they were present but it was in a 2011 car with a blown diffuser and therefore essentially meaningless. Their W03 gets its much-anticipated debut in Barcelona. Lotus
Probably have more reason than any team to be happy with their week's work. The E20 looks a well-balanced car and clearly has a turn of pace as well. Kimi Raikkonen looks like he never left F1. Force India
Will also be pleased with the debut of their car, the VJM05, which looked promising in the hands of Paul di Resta and Nico Hulkenberg. Reserve driver Jules Bianchi cost them a day's running on Friday, though, when he hit a tyre barrier. Toro Rosso
Youngsters Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne were both conspicuous by their presence on track and both also set times that put them well up the timesheets. All well and good, until we remember that Williams were the pacesetters at Jerez last year. Williams
Pace did not appear their priority this time, though, with reliability clearly the objective as first Pastor Maldonado and then, particularly, Bruno Senna, put in the laps. The Renault-powered FW34 will, presumably, get more of a chance to flex its muscles in Barcelona. Caterham
The CT01 was also a ubiquitous presence on track and in terms of reliability the car, which is running KERS for the first time, passed with flying colours. Test driver Giedo van der Garde had an off on Thursday but there was no real setback to speak of. Sauber
The C31 brought about more red flags than any other car during the week, although it also managed to get into the 1:19s as well. Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez will be hoping their reliability gremlins can be solved this week. HRT
Pedro de la Rosa appeared on the first two days, albeit in an old car. It appears as though he'll have to content himself with more of the same in Barcelona after the team's new chassis failed its mandatory crash tests. Marussia
Failed to make an appearance. Will do so in Barcelona, but Timo Glock and Charles Pic must wait until the second test at the Circuit de Catalunya to get their hands on the team's new car.