Whether it be F1 or Tournament Poker, strategy remains at the centre of the game-plan says Simon Lazenby. And under the greatest of pressure, the slightest mistake can bankrupt you
Thursday 4 June 2015 18:05, UK
In Formula 1, like Tournament Poker, there is no room for strategic error.
To moor your yacht in a prime position over Grand Prix weekend in Monte Carlo will set you back a six-figure sum; a suite overlooking Casino Square tens of thousands of euros and in certain nightspots you can spend fifty euros for a slimline gin and tonic. People come to watch people watching other people.
It’s a crazy few days where you can rub shoulders with the rich and famous, soak up the late spring sunshine on the Cote d’Azur and encounter normally sane and successful people getting giddy on the atmosphere and the rivers of champagne. Monaco isn’t cheap, no one ever said it was, but you can do it on a budget if you try hard enough and there’s always the chance you could win all your money back if you get your strategy right.
There is also a motor race taking place. Monaco is to Formula 1 what the World Series is to Poker. They are showpiece events that all participants want to win. They have a legacy respected by drivers and players alike and the stories associated with them become amplified because of the magnitude of the prize.
Last Sunday, we witnessed the headline of the season so far; a strategic mistake rarely seen in this sport and brought about by a split-second decision by the team in the heat of battle. It was an error that shouldn’t have been made and after lengthy analysis probably won’t be again.
However, for the world champions Mercedes, to make it in Monaco and cost Lewis Hamilton the victory was of huge embarrassment. As we know, strategy in Poker is one of the hardest arts to master; it is the same in F1 where there are banks of computers to help you work out the best tactic for the race. In poker your brain is your computer.
Going into the race Hamilton was holding a pair of aces in his hand. He had qualified fastest and was on pole ahead of his team-mate Nico Rosberg in second and Sebastian Vettel in third. For the purposes of this analogy, let’s say that the two men behind him are holding high-value suited connectors in a three-handed game, with Hamilton having position on the table/track.
The race gets underway and as Hamilton’s lead stretches this becomes the equivalent of a sizeable pre-flop raise. Monaco is a really tight track with plenty of scope for error and with very playable hands Rosberg and Vettel call him, refusing at that point to throw in the towel.
The metaphorical ‘flop’ in the race came in the form of a young driver called Max Verstappen, when he hit the wall and brought out the safety car. This bunches up the field on the track and gives the teams the option to pit for fresher, quicker tyres. The safety car appearing was the equivalent of a couple of picture cards of the same suit dropping onto the felt, increasing the winning probability for the two German drivers in behind Hamilton.
At this point, Hamilton would still know he was ahead at the table with the highest pair. But he would also know that if Rosberg or Vettel pitted for fresh tyres they would have the chance to overtake him. In poker, it’s similar to the board turning against you and under pressure Mercedes made the decision to pit the British driver whilst he was still in the lead. It’s like flat-calling when the two others have just checked round to you. He should have stayed out.
The sensible decision in poker, racing and life in general is to eliminate risk when you know you are ahead. People tend to take a chance when they are desperate. With a sizeable gap and on a Monaco track where overtaking is notoriously difficult, keeping Lewis out would have been the same as putting in a big raise. It would have shown his pursuers who was boss and might have forced them to take a risk or put them off their hands. When you know you are in front you can retain control by taking the right decisions. In a three-handed game there is little point in slowplaying your aces. The upside is minimal.
As it turned out, the flat call that was the Hamilton pitstop meant that he came out behind Rosberg and Vettel, who had hit their connectors to make a flush and a straight that both trumped Hamilton’s top pair. Rosberg took the hand, the world series bracelet and with it his third Monaco Grand Prix victory in a row. For Hamilton there was only despair.
It doesn’t matter whether you are in the last 10 laps of a race or the final hand of the World Series of Poker, strategy remains at the centre of your game-plan and in professional sport, under the greatest of pressure, the slightest error can bankrupt you or cost you your place in history.
