How will Lewis Hamilton approach the season finale? Can Mercedes deliver two reliable cars? Will this be the end of F1 as we know it?
Thursday 20 November 2014 09:59, UK
How will Lewis Hamilton play it?
He’s in it to win it. Or at least that’s how Lewis Hamilton said he would be approaching the Abu Double title decider before leaving Brazil two weeks ago. But the fact remains that Hamilton doesn’t need to win it - Sunday's race - to win the other 'it' – the World Championship. Even in the event of a Nico Rosberg victory, second place would be sufficient for Hamilton. And while the World Championship leader sounded fixed on a winning mentality in front of the cameras at Interlagos, he was rather less emphatic in the post-race press conference, telling reporters: "The next race is a different one and as I'm approaching it, I guess I would decide how I approach it."
With the Mercedes W05 still in a superior league to the rest of the field, the thought that only a collision or a breakdown - both of which can be mitigated by cautious driving - is liable to prevent Hamilton finishing at least second will have surely prospered over the last 10 or so days. Especially as Hamilton has been enclosed in his family’s Stevenage base, never out of earshot of his father, Anthony, and the advocate-in-chief of Lewis adopting a risk adverse strategy this weekend. "Lewis is a racing driver, so he wants to win every race, but you don’t have to win every race," said Hamilton senior in Brazil. "I always tell him 'just bring the car home' and if you always bring home the car, then you’ll always be one or two."
There's no arguing with that, although the obvious salient flaw in Anthony's advice is that Lewis is more a racer than a racing driver; the only speed he knows is called flat-out. Because it is so contrary to his nature, driving for second is itself inherently risky - perhaps even more risky than risking all for victory.
Yet needs must, and the challenge Hamilton ultimately faces this weekend is a test of his maturity and mental strength. He needs to be flexible and adaptable, a racer at heart but a racing driver in his head. Rather than be fixed on chasing victory or second place, Hamilton's best approach will be to be open-minded, to trust his instincts as well as his skill. In his generic approach to F1's new turbo era, Hamilton has, with his generally superior fuel and tyre management to Rosberg, proven himself to be much more of a thinker than his detractors loudly opined he wasn’t capable of being before the season's start. Now he has to seal the deal by thinking smart when it matters most. PG
Can Mercedes deliver two reliable cars?
Even without the unpalatable spectre of double points decisively intervening in the outcome of Sunday's title decider, there was always going to be one other factor that had the potential to skew the final outcome in such a tight championship battle as this - unreliability. The fact that the two title protagonists drive for the same team, Mercedes, naturally means that there's an increased emphasis on their Brackley team to ensure both their cars hold together for the duration of the Abu Dhabi race weekend.
There's also a wider responsibility to the 'show' too, something Mercedes, to their credit, are well aware of: “It is now down to us to ensure that this fascinating year concludes in the right way by giving Lewis and Nico a platform to settle the title purely on the track,” remarked team boss Toto Wolff this week. While the W05 has blown all the would-be competition away this year, the season’s all-conquering machine infamously hasn't been completely without its reliability flaws. Those became acutely apparent during the summer months when either Rosberg, or in particular, Hamilton appeared to be struck down by some technical glitch or another on a recurring basis.
The good news for the prospect of a befittingly uninterrupted Hamilton v Rosberg duel to the flag this weekend at least is that since a particular low point was reached in Singapore in September - when the German driver’s car failed to even make it off the grid - the Mercedes pair have recorded four consecutive qualifying and race-day one-twos. That certainly suggests that the team, literally perhaps, have tightened things up, and on a medium-speed Yas Marina circuit which hardly presents the most strenuous test of a car on the calendar, the odds should certainly be in Mercedes’ favour. But still, if Rosberg’s bizarre Singapore problem - when a substance contamination sent his W05’s electronics haywire - proved anything, it’s that you can never be 100% sure of bullet-proof reliability in F1.
As the 17-point title leader and the man with five more race wins than Rosberg this year, Hamilton has the most to lose from any mechanical failure, and it’s no wonder that Wolff has spoken of the “nightmare” of a failure costing the Briton the crown. Were such a scenario to come to pass, then it might be advisable to step well back from the fan fallout… JG
Where’s the money going?
It would seem the betting public fully expect Lewis Hamilton to come away with the 2014 drivers’ title, and the majority are maximising their return by backing the championship leader each-way in Sky Bet’s race result market.
Hamilton is 1/5 favourite for the title heading into the final race of the season and it would seem only an unfortunate technical failure or collision can halt his charge, with second place enough for the former McLaren man no matter what.
Mercedes are odds-on to produce a 12th one-two of the season in Abu Dhabi, with Hamilton the marginal race favourite at 5/6 to Rosberg’s price of 11/10. By backing Hamilton to win the race each-way (first or second) in their masses, Sky Bet’s customers are suggesting they’re expecting a clean, reliable performance from Mercedes all round.
For those that aren’t, there’s always the price of 100/30 on Rosberg to pinch the title at the death. JC
Who will finish fourth in the Drivers’ Championship?
The battle to be fourth in the Drivers’ Championship is a three-way fight between Sebastian Vettel, Fernando Alonso and Valtteri Bottas, with just three points separating the trio.
Vettel is the current occupant of fourth place, having amassed 159 points thus far and the German enjoys a good record in Abu Dhabi. Not only has he won three of the five grands prix staged there, but in 2012 he charged from the pitlane to the podium.
However, the two long DRS Zones at the Yas Marina Circuit could leave him a sitting duck in his final race for Red Bull due to the season-long problem of an underpowered Renault engine.
That could also be an issue for Alonso - albeit with a Ferrari engine rather than a Renault power unit – in what will also most likely be his farewell appearance for the Scuderia. Unlike Red Bull, the Ferrari chassis will not be able to make up for part of the engine deficit through the twisty final sector adding to the Spaniard's challenge. The events of Brazil also demonstrated that Alonso can expect no favours from team-mate Kimi Raikkonen or the team in helping him improve his position.
Thus could it be the man currently in sixth who jumps up the order when the chequered flag falls on 2014? Bottas will be keen to bounce back from a difficult race in Brazil where pitstop delays, including one whilst his seatbelts were adjusted, meant he dropped from his starting spot of fourth to 10th. In the Finn’s favour will be the Mercedes powerplant in the back of the Williams and the car is incredibly quick in a straight-line which should aid any overtakes that need to be made - particularly into turns eight and 11.
Of the protagonists, Bottas is also the only one remaining with his current team after the race and that could also play into his favour. WE
Will this be the last race with two-car teams?
The last race of the season, then, and the Mexican stand-off between the small teams, the biggies and the commercial rights holders continues. The spoils of F1 are there for all to see this weekend, reflected in the spectacular Yas Marina complex. Yet the sport’s arrival at such a conspicuous venue also deepens the suspicion that one way of solving F1’s current crisis put forward by the smaller teams - an old school socialist-style redistribution of wealth - doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.
That’s what Bernie Ecclestone reckons and that’s what the big teams have been saying. But it hasn’t stopped Force India, Sauber and Lotus from maintaining their offensive: a letter was sent to Ecclestone this week detailing their concerns and they hope to meet him this weekend. Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg might be fighting for the World Championship but there’ll doubtless be a few wags speculating that Friday’s team bosses' press conference (featuring Bob Fernley, Monisha Kaltenborn and Gerard Lopez up against Christian Horner, Marco Mattiacci, Toto Wolff and Claire Williams) will be a better scrap.
The argument hinges on the most recent deals struck by Ecclestone with the teams (what used to be known collectively as the Concorde Agreement) which are, of course, confidential. That lack of transparency has caused plenty of confusion (“The majority of them don’t have the slightest idea what they’re talking about," Ecclestone said of his critics last week) for example, when trying to pinpoint just how low the grid needs to go before its required that some teams (Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren at first apparently) bring third cars. Figures anywhere between 12 and 20 have been quoted, but 16 is the number quoted more often than not.
Actually, the field could have be back as high as 22 this weekend amid hopes, now dashed, that Marussia would manage to join Caterham in Abu Dhabi, although the fact both teams have between them laid off more than 400 staff in the past fortnight hardly bodes well for the longer-term. Both have submitted entries for 2015, so the best-case scenario next season is that it’ll start ‘as you were’ in Sochi. However, if the worst does come to the worst then, as was the case in Austin and Sao Paulo, we’d be looking at an 18-car grid in Melbourne.
So for it to drop to 16 - triggering, presumably, the arrival of three-car teams - then the logic follows that one of Force India, Sauber or Lotus would also have to go to the wall. But how likely is that?
Sauber’s decision to hire Felipe Nasr and Marcus Ericsson (assuming their current driver roster doesn’t get all uppity about it) suggests its ‘paydriver’ all the way at Hinwil, meaning it’ll stay a charisma-free outpost. But at least they’ll continue to have a presence there, with Felipe Nasr said to be bringing about $24 million worth of backing alone.
Likewise, Pastor Maldonado’s continued presence at Lotus gives them as estimated $30 million per season and the fact Romain Grosjean has signed up again registers a vote of confidence, even though team owner Lopez admitted in January his team had debts of £114 million (about $178 million), albeit owed mostly to his own company Genii Capital. But there’s less talk of a mass staff exodus and unpaid salaries these days, while the switch to Mercedes power suggests a team that means business after a dismal 2014 season.
Fernley, Force India’s deputy team boss, has arguably been the most outspoken critic of how F1 currently goes about its business and it was reported last week that his team made a net loss of about $60 million in 2013. Yet the team’s COO Otmar Szafnauer told The Hindu, “I am 100 per cent certain we will make the grid and continue on our current glide path of improvement, for many years to come.”
That the teams are struggling there is no doubt, although obvious differences between them and Marussia and Caterham - size, history, success… income - also count in their favour. It’s clear that the three of them are seeking to make political capital - quite rightfully so - from the downfall of their smaller rivals; yet the irony is that in surviving themselves, they'd not only block the door to three-car teams and customer cars, they'd also probably ensure the wider topic of costs would, once again, be placed safely on the back burner. Will it ever boil over? MW
