Chris Froome will win the Tour de France - but only just

I have been involved in cycling for a long time now and, to my eyes at least, this has the makings of one of the most open and exciting editions of the Tour de France in years.

It’s rare that you get as many as four riders – all past grand tour winners – with a strong chance of victory, so to have Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana and Vincenzo Nibali all vying for the yellow jersey is a privilege for us fans and onlookers.

As for which of the four will win, it’s extremely difficult to split them, but I’m tipping Froome. Narrowly.

Each have their strengths and weaknesses, but I just feel Froome is the most rounded rider and has the strongest team, and on a route that is predominantly mountainous yet presents other challenges such as cobbles and time-trialling, those attributes could be vital.

In climbing terms, I would rank them as: 1st Quintana, 2nd Froome, 3rd Contador, 4th Nibali. But my prediction for the result is: 1st Froome, 2nd Contador or Quintana, 4th Nibali. I cannot choose between Contador and Quintana for second place.

What I can predict with more confidence is that this will not be a general classification battle that ignites only in the second week, as per usual; it will begin on the start ramp of Saturday’s first stage.

Potential pitfalls wait around every corner, but then so do opportunities to gain time on rivals, so I envisage Froome, Contador, Quintana and Nibali will be going at each other right from the word go.

I personally think Nibali will be a man on a mission in the first week because, aside from the time trials, almost all of those stages are like one-day classics and he knows he is the best of the four on that terrain yet will probably be the weakest when it comes to the mountains. He has to make gains before the first rest day to stand any chance of defending his title.

The team time trial will also be important, particularly if teams have lost riders to crashes or injury in the first week. Usually team time trials take place on stage one, but this is on stage nine, so if Froome, for example, has lost one or two team-mates, that could have a big impact on Team Sky’s performance.

From there, the race should settle down into a more formulaic pattern as it hits the Pyrenees and then the Alps. Stage 12, which finishes at Plateau de Beille, is one hell of a stage and I can see that being decisive. Whoever is in yellow after that day would be my man for the overall win.

It will be interesting to see what impact the introduction this year of time bonuses for the top three on each stage will have.

The idea is for more exciting racing, but I just hope it doesn’t have the opposite effect and make the mountain stages less attacking. I don’t want to see a scenario on summit finishes where the climbers are saving their energy for a sprint for the line and bonus seconds on offer.

Elsewhere in the race, the absence of Marcel Kittel is a huge blow for the sprints, but it does play nicely into Mark Cavendish’s hands.

I expect Cavendish to be the top sprinter at the race – and not just on the pan-flat days. His excellent performance at a hilly British national road race last weekend was ample evidence of how well he is climbing at the moment, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he is challenging on the uphill sprints as well.

His chances of winning the points classification will in turn be enhanced, and with the likes of John Degenkolb and Michael Matthews also vying for the green jersey, I can’t see that competition being yet another walkover for Peter Sagan. A far closer contest is in the offing.

As for whom the surprise package of the race will be, I don’t think you can look past the Yates twins, and Simon in particular.

I know they are both targeting stage wins only, but if they come through the first week unscathed, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Simon challenging for a place in the top 10 overall. His fifth place at the Criterium du Dauphine last month proved that isn’t beyond him.

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