Michael Atherton believes that England will hold on to clinch their first series win in India since 1984.
The tourists, who lead the series 2-1, need a draw in Nagpur and ended the fourth day 165 runs ahead on 161-3.
India declared on 326-9 and England stuttered to 94-3 in their second innings. However Jonathan Trott (66 not out) and Ian Bell (24 no) steadied England with a more purposeful partnership of 67.
"I don't think England quite got it right at the start - 13 runs from 90 odd balls just sets a slightly too cautious tone. They did get a better balance towards the end of the day when Trott and Bell batted well together with just a little more impetus.
"I think you always have to have the context of the conditions. Throughout the game the run rate has hovered below two and a half runs per over - it is a terrible pitch.
"Dhoni had this clear ploy with Alastair Cook of bowling left arm spinners at leg stump with three men in, three men out and a leg slip. In order for Cook to score, he had to take a risk - he did not want to take a risk.
"That is the problem with the third innings of the match - sometimes you just can't get that balance right. If you go into bat on the final day and you know you just have to bat out the day for a draw, it is quite a clear objective for you, but in the third innings sometimes you can get caught a bit betwixt and between.
"I think if England bat three hours tomorrow, maybe half the day - that should see them beyond 250 to 300 and I think that first series win in India since 1984 is there.
"I think India would find it very difficult to chase that kind of a total down in half a day. They may have a dash at it with Sehwag and Dhoni - I guess they have no choice but to have a go, but I think the pitch will win out in the end."
A bit of an edge
Atherton also says there was no evidence as to whether Jonathan Trott was caught behind by Dhoni or not, but was relieved that finally there was a bit of an edge to the game.
"Nobody here seems to be convinced one way or the other; the television guys I went and spoke to said that the evidence was inconclusive.
"From what I saw Dhoni went up very instinctively and the bowler followed his appeal - I did not think he looked convinced. Dhoni did and he is not one to be overly demonstrative. One thing for sure is that Trott was not bothered.
"To be honest I was glad to see a bit of edge in the game - the first four hours had been terrible to watch, really dull cricket. I am not saying that you want to be rowing all the time but I was happy to see that."