Smith needs a fast start to have any chance...
Thursday 2 October 2014 14:10, UK
Paul Smith has got a chance of springing a surprise against Arthur Abraham but, let's be honest, he is a huge underdog.
There's no doubting that - Abraham is an established world champion and has been in with some of the best around, first at middleweight, now at super-middle.
The odds are stacked against Smith even more because he has been a British super-middleweight champion at the worst possible time.
Carl Froch, James DeGale and George Groves are the closest thing we've seen to Chris Eubank, Nigel Benn and Michael Watson and they have kept Paul in the shadows - and at domestic level.
Add in the fact that when he did step up he was beaten by both Groves and DeGale and you can see why few fancy him to win in Germany. The former got world title shots and the latter the European title, yet we just don't know what Smith is capable of.
He doesn't have any big wins on his card to prove to us that he can box at this level and he needs a performance way beyond anything he has produced before. But that does not mean it won't happen.
We know Abraham is tough and hard but he could not be called a gifted fighter. In fact, he is pretty basic and in a lot of his fights he has been outboxed in the early rounds.
There is absolutely no doubt that Smith will have to start quickly and lead by the halfway stage, then tough it out down the stretch.
It is not difficult getting the lead against Abraham but staying in front is. A huge 17 of his 40 fights have gone into the last round so he does not just blow people away inside the distance and is certainly no wrecking ball.
It is not out of the question he can snatch this on points if his sharpness, his tactics and his smartness are all working better than ever.
He has stopped a couple late on, though, and the fact that this is in Germany tells us that if he builds up a lead, it has to be wide and he has to somehow keep it wide.
Joe Gallagher will have done his homework and come up with a game-plan and I do know that Smith will be in great shape. He will give himself every chance and I know he will give everything once that bell sounds.
Every fighter has a dream to become a world champion and there is no point suggesting Abraham is over-rated or over-the-hill because that makes a case for Paul and I know he won't be doing that himself.
Abraham has lost to Froch, Andre Ward, Andre Dirrell and Robert Stieglitz, but he has also beaten Jermain Taylor, Stieglitz twice, Edison Miranda twice and, of course, Howard Eastman, who any British fighter would have struggled against.
We know he has made the best of what he's got and this is a guy who has never had lightning fast moves, so if he is deteriorating, it will hardly make a big difference. But he is beatable.
It would be terrific if we saw that happen on Saturday night and Paul could get the result he - and British boxing - are after. It is not out of the question he can snatch this on points if his sharpness, his tactics and his smartness are all working better than ever.
But I just see this getting tougher and tougher and I would have to side with Abraham taking another win over the full distance, even with that early lead from the challenger.
Smith is tough enough not to get stopped but the dream looks further and further away every time I try to shorten his odds. It can be done if everything goes Paul’s way, but that is a big, big if.
Watch Abraham v Smith live from Germany, from 8.30pm, Saturday, Sky Sports 2.
